What happens when the UK boundaries change
The current UK boundaries are not fair, with some electorates being much larger than others in terms of population. The electors per seat are:
- Wales 57,057
- Northern Ireland 68,704
- Scotland 68,403
- England 72,814
The Conservatives have a bill to get rid of what is effectively a gerrymander and also reduce the House of Commons from 650 to 600 MPs.
Electoral Calculus has projected what the 2015 results would have been without the gerrymander, and with only 600 seats. It would be:
- Conservatives 325 (-6)
- Labour 202 (-26)
- Lib Dems 5 (-3)
- SNP 49 (-7)
- Plaid Cymru 3
- Northern Ireland 16 (-2)
- Conservative Majority 50 (+38)
This is quite significant. It will significantly help their re-election chances in 2020, if they get rid of the unequal seat sizes. They go from a majority of 12 to a paper majority of 50.