Libs to vote on Tuesday on Abbott

The Liberal Party caucus (MPs and Senators) will vote on Tuesday on whether to declare the leadership positions vacant.  It is basically a no confidence motion in Tony Abbott.

There are 102 members of the caucus, so 52 votes are needed to succeed.

All Ministers are expected to vote against the spill motion, or resign. There are 25 Ministers and you can’t remain a minister if you publicly declare no confidence in the leadership. However it is a secret ballot.

If the spill motion passes, then they have a leadership election. It is possible Abbott could stand again and win. It is even possible no one would stand against him. However while Bishop and Turnbull will publicly oppose the spill motion, it is likely one or both of them will stand if it does pass.

A poll just out shows that if the Libs replace Abbott with Turnbull they will go from 8% behind Labor to 8% ahead – a net 16% gain.

Some talk is around a Turnbull/Bishop leadership with Scott Morrison becoming Treasurer.

Abbott’s brand is so damaged it is hard to see how they can win in 2016 with him. So do they change now, or do they change after an election loss?