General Debate 27 January 2015

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Manolo

To progressive stephieboy’s delight: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/hillary-clinton-2016-elections-114586.html

Not only is she running, but we have a very good idea of what her campaign will look like.

Hillary Clinton is in the final stages of planning a presidential campaign that will most likely be launched in early April and has made decisions on most top posts, according to numerous Democrats in close contact with the Clintons and their aides.
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January 27, 2015 3:19pm
Redbaiter

Actually Redbaiter, Griff is nearly always able to construct a more credible argument than you are.

Thanks for the laff.

Its always amusing to see some partisan bigot pretend to the role of objective observer and write their judgments here in the mistaken belief they carry more than a skerrick of credibility.

Grief can’t even read or write let alone construct an argument.

And at least I know when to use “that” and when to use “who”. (10:47)
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January 27, 2015 3:20pm
mikenmild

Just my opinion, Redbaiter, I don’t expect you to agree from your position on planet Wingnut.
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January 27, 2015 3:22pm
Ryan Sproull

This is extraordinary: http://www.ecouterre.com/reality-show-sends-fashion-bloggers-to-work-in-cambodian-sweatshop/
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January 27, 2015 3:27pm
stephieboy

Fletch , the real problem with The Sniper is that it mingles a lot of fact and a lot of fiction from Chris Kyle’s life notably what he did and not do in Iraq .For example the film portrays his nemesis a character identified as Mustafa which is claimed he took out from a distance of some 1,200 yards .Nothing like that ever happened as Kyle states in his own memoir .

Also the film claims there was a $180,000 bounty on Kyle’s head .Untrue .There was in fact bounties of $20,000 to $80,000′ on any US snipers head.I think also Chris Kyle became somewhat disillusioned with some US military tactics in Iraq too.

By all means a great box office success but at the expense of some very pertinent facts that might otherwise encourage the GOP etc to put boots on the ground in Iraq yet again after. 2016 .

http://www.slate.com/blogs/browbeat/2015/01/23/american_sniper_fact_vs_fiction_how_accurate_is_the_chris_kyle_movie.htmlI'm
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January 27, 2015 3:35pm
Manolo

Another call to violence from the followers of Islam: http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/isis-spokesman-calls-for-terror-attacks-around-the-world-while-praising-charlie-hebdo-massacre/ar-AA8ByzK?ocid=mailsignoutmd

Abu Mohamed al-Adnani, the spokesperson whose previous statements may have inspired gunmen in Australia and France, said any loyalist who has the opportunity to “shed a drop of blood” should do so.
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January 27, 2015 3:56pm
Shawn Herles

A Non-Religious Case Against Same Sex Marriage

Same sex marriage advocates also argue that it is wrong to make value judgment about marriage. Yet they allow themselves to make value judgments about who should get to marry. Here again they fail logically. By insisting that same sex unions ought to be considered marriages on a par with heterosexual marriages, they make a value judgment about marriages, both their own marriages and those of others. If they are against making value judgments about marriage, then they have to stop saying what they say. But of course they won’t. Rather, they press their judgments on others while, at the same time, refusing to permit others to make judgments.

http://www.theimaginativeconservative.org/2013/04/a-non-religious-case-against-same-sex-marriage.html
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January 27, 2015 4:11pm
Shawn Herles

Guillotine, Gulag and Gas Chamber: The Glorious Gifts of Atheism to Humanity

There are lies, damned lies, and neo-atheist polemics. One of the most egregious examples of such godless mendacity is the claim that religion has been the cause of most of the wars that have blighted humanity throughout its blood-stained history. In a world with “no religion”, so the argument runs, there would be “nothing to kill or die for”. Such nonsense is only believable if we remain willfully ignorant of the lessons of history.

http://www.theimaginativeconservative.org/2014/03/guillotine-gulag-gas-chamber-glorious-gifts-atheism-and-war-humanity.html
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January 27, 2015 4:13pm
SGA

Shawn Herles at 4:11 pm

A Non-Religious Case Against Same Sex Marriage

I’m not sure that your extract makes any case against same-sex marriage, does it? It just questions a particular argument made by some in support of same-sex marriage.
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January 27, 2015 4:27pm
Weihana

wreck1080 (4,036 comments) says:
January 27th, 2015 at 10:40 am

IPCC 2001 : “Milder temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms”

In what context was this stated? That is the key problem. With such complex subject matter it is important to specify the context rather than just taking something out of context to further a political argument.

The regional reports, from which your quote is taken, are based on “climate scenarios”. The TAR states:

For a range of emission scenarios produced for this Third Assessment Report, model results suggest that North America could warm by 1-3°C over the next century for a low-emissions case (B1). Warming could be as much as 3.5-7.5°C for the higher emission A2 case. Published regional impact studies have used climate scenarios with global temperature changes that are similar to these new cases, but regional scenarios may not be directly comparable.

http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/569.htm

So to say that with a long term increase in temperature there will be a decrease in heavy snow storms is not necessarily contradicted by a trend of increasing severe snow storms in the short term. It is important to understand that when the air is very cold it can hold less moisture before becoming saturated. So as the air warms it can hold more moisture. Also when it warms there is increased evaporation leading to more precipitation. If it is cold enough this falls as snow thus counterintuitively there can be more snow when it is warmer. But ultimately if the air is too warm that precipitation will fall as rain which would reduce snow fall. These competing factors mean that it is important to provide context when making a projection.

Indeed the quote you use is actually less about snow storms are more specifically about ice storms. The paragraph is titled “Ice Storms” and the full quote is:

Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms but could cause an increase in freezing rain if average daily temperatures fluctuate about the freezing point.

http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/569.htm

So the specific scenario being considered is “average daily temperatures fluctuating about the freezing point”. But you haven’t bothered to include the full context including the acknowledged uncertainties. The TAR also states:

Changes in precipitation are highly uncertain.

Methods and tools to assess vulnerability to extreme events have improved but are constrained by low confidence in climate change scenarios and the sensitivity of impact models to major climatic anomalies.

It has been postulated that there will be increases in the frequency and severity of extreme events

An honest person would summarize this context rather than just searching a large document for a single line to try and exploit in the wake of an extreme weather event that seemed contrary to the prediction.

…There is no way anyone can falsify the global warming theory now because any weather event that happens proves’ their case.’”

So true, every single weather event, cold or hot or windy is being blamed on global warming.

A snow storm is primarily a weather event. By itself, no such extreme weather events proves much of anything about the climate. Global warming is proved, not by a weather event, but by the observation that the earth’s climate is warming over time. Anthropogenic warming is proved, not by a weather event, but by observing trends in key climate indicators that are consistent with warming from increased greenhouse gas emissions and by discounting alternative hypotheses.

What we are talking about here are the follow-on effects from human-induced warming. Many of the postulated effects, such as an increase in the severity of extreme weather events, are less certain than the theory that humans are responsible for climate change.

Indeed scientists like Michael Mann and Kevin Trenberth have stated clearly that no individual storm can be attributed solely to climate change. But there is emerging evidence that climate change in contributing to more severe characteristics such as frequency and/or severity.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/26/climate-change-responsible-super-charging-winter-storms
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January 27, 2015 4:28pm
SGA

Shawn Herles at 4:13 pm

In a world with “no religion”, so the argument runs, there would be “nothing to kill or die for”.

Good grief, Shawn, even the song that your extract quotes from wasn’t that narrow minded-
Imagine there’s no countries
It isn’t hard to do
Nothing to kill or die for
And no religion too
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January 27, 2015 4:32pm
wat dabney

Shawn,

I as explained to you yesterday, there have never been any “atheist atrocities”: there have, however, been atrocities committed by people who happened to be atheists.

Their atheism was entirely coincidental; unlike theists who for hundreds of years have been actively driven to murderous persecution by their beliefs.

But of course, you’re not interested in logical and sound argument are you. You’re reaching round for something – anything – with which to beat atheists in a desperate bid to distract from their calling attention to the centuries of Christian butchery (much of it being Christian-on-Christian and Christian-on-Jew.)

So please go ahead. Knock yourself out. After all, if logic and reason were your strong points you wouldn’t be defending the existence of magical pixies in the first place.
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January 27, 2015 4:53pm
mikenmild

They way I see it, no ideology, whether religious or not, is of itself murderous and hateful. All ideologies, however, seem to be able to be placed in the service of murderous people.
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January 27, 2015 4:56pm
hj

AINA) — Feature films often provide a valuable insight into social trends. Two Australian films about the Gallipoli campaign in the First World War illustrate the point.

In the case of the 2014 film “The Water Diviner”, directed by Russell Crowe, the change of social attitudes in Australia in recent decades is reflected in the starkest of ways. This becomes clear if compared with the 1981 production “Gallipoli” directed by Peter Weir and starring Mel Gibson and Mark Lee.
http://www.aina.org/guesteds/20150125133123.htm
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January 27, 2015 5:04pm
wat dabney

milky,

Of course, the absence of belief in magical pixies is not an “ideology”, any more than an absence of belief in the Tooth Fairy, Nessie and Santa are ideologies. And the absence of such beliefs can never drive anyone to do anything ever.

Sure there have been countless atrocitices committed by people who happened not to believe in Santa.

And using Shawn’s “logic” we must conclude that the lack of belief in Santa therefore leads to the most wicked atrocities.
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January 27, 2015 5:06pm
mikenmild

I’d rather not use Shawn’s ‘logic’, ever.
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January 27, 2015 5:08pm
wat dabney

“Global warming is proved, not by a weather event, but by the observation that the earth’s climate is warming over time. Anthropogenic warming is proved, not by a weather event, but by observing trends in key climate indicators that are consistent with warming from increased greenhouse gas emissions and by discounting alternative hypotheses.”

Not exactly.

The AGW theory is supported if temperature trends match the increase predicted by the computer models.

On the other hand, it is scientifically disproved if those predictions fail.

And, as we know, the temperature has not matched the predictions.

The theory is disproved.

End of story.
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January 27, 2015 5:12pm
Lance

Enough to make the food Nazi’s weep

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/news/article.cfm?c_id=6&objectid=11392599

Actually looks puke inducing but that’s irrelevant, the hysterical shrieks from the nanny state health minions will be a laugh
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January 27, 2015 5:14pm
Pete George

The AGW theory is supported if temperature trends match the increase predicted by the computer models.

On the other hand, it is scientifically disproved if those predictions fail.

That’s nonsense. To scientifically disprove something as you seem to think it needs to be done then you would have to have computer models that predict the ‘AGW is not happening’ theory and then have those specific models proven by measured temperature trends.

What Wat is trying to do is pull is the “if you can’t prove evolution from nothing through every step to current biology then God did it” stunt.

Scientific theories get updated all the time as more is proven and disproven. If one model doesn’t work out it doesn’t mean it disproves the whole scientific field.
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January 27, 2015 5:35pm
Griff

And, as we know, the temperature has not matched the predictions

Going to wingnut blogs again wat ?
The theory of global warming exists out side of climate models and in based on physics which says if we increase co2 the planet will warm
The theory is only invalidated if a stronger reason why the planet is warmer than its black body temperature is found.
As no one has yet discovered climate pixies we have to stay with the green house gas theory for the reason why our planet is warmer than black body radiation physics alone suggest it should be.
The climate models are projections not predictions.
They dont predict things like the southern osculation index, volcanoes, human emitted aerosols, and solar cycles .
When models that correctly include these variables are examined they are accurate as to the present temperatures of the atmosphere .
unfortunately they under predict the rise in ocean heat content and the melting of arctic sea ice.
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models-intermediate.htm
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January 27, 2015 5:52pm
Pete George

And Wat, I haven’t seen you say specifically what theory you’re referring to, and what computer models you’re referring to.

Starting with the theory, what does it state?
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January 27, 2015 5:55pm
Rowan

Stupidboy
Whatever glasses/gloves the point applies equally to both, the explanation is he doesn’t know! So your long winded dribble is again irrelevant nonsense.
Get over yourself.
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January 27, 2015 6:03pm
Steve (North Shore)

No Burqa?
I think the fundamentalist and terrorist muslims are looking for the young angry moari that has the warrior gene.
Rankin wants to stop this coming to light
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January 27, 2015 6:15pm
Rachael Membery

Rowan (2,677 comments) says:

January 27th, 2015 at 6:03 pm

Really, David doesn’t? But Joe seems so sure!!!

Are you an ‘official’ spokesperson?
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January 27, 2015 6:35pm
cricko

Can anyone interpret this please ?

Tonight I watched TV1 news for the first time in a long time.

There was “Senior political editor” Corrin Dann giving a preview of a major speech Labours
Andrew Little is to deliver tomorrow.

Dann tells viewers that the thrust of Littles speech will be,

“Very big on the future of the workplace.”

That was it, no explanation, nothing.

Did this idiot Dann ask the idiot from Labour who gave him the sneak preview WTF that meant ?
or,
is “Senior political editor” Dann just a gormless repeater in the thrall of his Labour heroes and just
as stupid ?
(I hear Little is looking out for a PR/media advisor, seems he better get onto it pronto.)
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January 27, 2015 6:36pm
Inandout

Steve: They won’t have to look far to find a Maori with the gene, which is perhaps why they are recruiting from the prisons.
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January 27, 2015 6:38pm
cricko

Lets face it.

Dunedin police totally buggered up the crime scene investigation of the Bain murders.
They were incompetent.
That is the crux of the matter.

20 odd people had wandered through the house before the officer tasked with securing the scene
woke up and did anything.

Neither Robin or Davids hands were swabbed for gun shot residue.
Robins hands were not even protected by plastic bags when his body was removed and transported
to the mortuary.

That one simple basic act would have solved the matter.
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January 27, 2015 7:03pm
waikatogirl

Criko: There was “Senior political editor” Corrin Dann giving a preview of a major speech Labours
Andrew Little is to deliver tomorrow.
Dann tells viewers that the thrust of Littles speech will be,

“Very big on the future of the workplace.”.

***
Future of the workplace. Is that another way of saying LP will be fighting for workers rights?
He also reported that Angry will state that the LP will focus on small businesses.

Are these two policies compatable???
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January 27, 2015 7:41pm
OneTrack

cricko – “I hear Little is looking out for a PR/media advisor, seems he better get onto it pronto”

No need to hire Dann then. He’s already doing the job for them and the Labour party don’t have to pay him anything.
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January 27, 2015 7:44pm
OneTrack

“He also reported that Angry will state that the LP will focus on small businesses.

Are these two policies compatable???”

It is if Little is going to focus on putting small businesses out if business. How would he do such a thing?

Capital Gains Tax
Increase company tax
Compulsory unionism
Throw out the 90 day trial period
Increased employment regulation

Which ones aren’t Labour-Green policy?
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January 27, 2015 7:50pm
Nostalgia-NZ

cricko, time and a wider source of information have overcome the police botch up of the crime scene. A Bayesian test applied to all the particular forensic circumstances surrounding Robin’s death arrived at 98% peer reviewed suicide probability. I’m no expert on whether or not that finding along with known points, such as the Crown conceding that David was not home when Robin’s computer was turned on can be correlated, although I imagine they can giving a 100% certainty that David is innocent. Of course you may know that the DiMaio findings were only established, or at least confirmed, during the delay in the passage of the Binnie report to Cabinet. So in one respect the delay in allowing the pathologists into Every Street and the mishandling and destruction of evidence rests at the other end on a delay of cabinet looking at the recommendation and the new findings which now must sit beside that recommendation, along with the Giles discovery and other important proof of innocence BRD.
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January 27, 2015 8:28pm
publicwatchdog

Anyone who wants to see for themselves what I said to 120 people at the Carterton Memorial Hall on Friday 23 January 2015 – try googling ‘Carterton Voice – Penny Bright – full speech’ (You Tube).

You can see a ‘Power Point’ scanned copy of my Auckland City Council 2010 Rates Assessment notices (pre-‘Supercity’) and my latest 2015 Auckland (‘Supercity – for the 1%) Council Rates Assessment notice.

My rates have gone up 66% in that time.

(And NO – I haven’t paid these disputed rates – because Auckland citizens and ratepayers are STILL not being told exactly where rates monies are being spent.)

How about other Auckland Kiwibloggers?

Done your $upercity $ums yet?

Want to share YOUR Auckland ‘$upercity – SUPER ME$$’ horror stories to help warn Wellingtonians of the REALITY of the Auckland forced amalgamation?

Penny Bright

http://www.pennybright4mayor.org.nz
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January 27, 2015 8:39pm
RF

cricko. 7.03pm. The Dunedin Police Photographer who has since deceased apparently stuffed up the crime scene photos. When the Police later tried Bain for the last time they could not work out the sequence of many of the relevant photos.
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January 27, 2015 8:41pm
Rowan

Dickleberry
Did I ever claim to be their spokesperson? and no, the only thing that Joe is so ‘sure’ about is Davids innocence, that’s so obvious. He doesn’t have and doesn’t need to have a detailed explanation of the gloves and the glasses, and the exact sequence of events that resulted in the bloody gloves being discarded and the glasses lens in Stephens room. That is only known by the killer and he is not here to explain it to you. Sorry about that.
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January 27, 2015 9:13pm
mandk

wat dabney: “Shawn,

I as explained to you yesterday, there have never been any “atheist atrocities” ”

And as I explained to you, wat, that is complete bollocks.

“Atheism is a natural and inseparable part of Marxism, of the theory and practice of scientific socialism” (Lenin).
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January 27, 2015 9:14pm
SGA

@mandk
And Lenin’s particular vision of a socialist state may well have been an atheist one. But so what? Atheism is, as far as I can tell, not at odds with capitalism, and, from the other side, one of the main fears concerning the rise of liberation theology in Latin America was its socialist undercurrents. So, there doesn’t seem to be a direct equivalence.

I think what wat is asking/stating concerns the evidence that it was the atheistic “part” of Lenin’s Marxism that was responsible for the atrocities of that regime.
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January 27, 2015 9:47pm
mandk

@ SGA
I don’t understand you.
Lenin plainly said the two are inseparable in theory and practice.
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January 27, 2015 9:52pm
SGA

mandk at 9:52 pm

I don’t understand you.

I really can’t see how I make what I said any clearer, I’m sorry. Forget it.
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January 27, 2015 9:54pm
mandk

My point is that you cannot distinguish between the atheist part and the non-atheist part.
As the man said, they cannot be separated.
Trying to separate them is a bit like trying to separate the Christian and non-Christian parts of the Crusades. It doesn’t make any sense.
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January 27, 2015 10:11pm
cha

Thrashed.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8S7hxICMAEvMj_.jpg:large

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-74.03,37.61,1673
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January 27, 2015 10:14pm

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