December 27, 2014 7:00am by David Farrar

Scoring my 2014 predictions

My 2014 predictions were here. Some serious, and some not. How did I go?

  1. Colin Craig will be a Member of Parliament by the end of 2014 – 0
  2. The election will be held in October 2014 – 0
  3. Genesis Energy will be sold by May 2014 – 1
  4. There will be two new Ministers before the election – 1 (Lotu-Iiga and Wagner)
  5. At least one electorate Labour MP will be successfully challenged for their party’s nomination (or will withdraw before the vote) – 0
  6. At least two more National MPs will announce they will retire before the election – heaps did – 1
  7. Brendan Horan will not be an MP by the end of 2014 – 1
  8. The 2014 Budget will project a surplus of between $100 million and $250 million for 2014/15.  1/2 – $372 million projected.
  9. NZ will not win the election for the UN Security Council – 0 – thankfully wrong
  10. At least two Green MPs will be ranked outside the top 15 on the Green list – 1/2 – Browning was on the draft list and Walker went off the list
  11. The Maori Party will have at least two MPs after the election – 1
  12. Len Brown will go – 0.
  13. Hone Harawira will attend less than half the House sitting days in 2014 – have to check but pretty sure he did under half – 1
  14. National will campaign on tax cuts and Labour on tax increases – 1
  15. Jamie Whyte will be elected the Leader of ACT and candidate for Epsom, but ACT will not make it back to Parliament – 1/2 – thankfully wrong
  16. Peter Dunne will be re-elected MP for Ohariu – 1
  17. NZ First will have fewer MPs after the election, than they got in 2011 – 0
  18. A prominent journalist will stand as a candidate for the Kim Dotcom Party – 0 – they all said no
  19. National will both gain and lose electorate seats at the election – 1/2 – lost Napier
  20. After the 2014 election, Parliament will be at least 38% female, up from 34% – 0 – dropped to 31%

Overall – 10/20 – just scraped through.