Why Little may be Prime Minister

Based on history Andrew Little should become Prime Minister. No opposition leader who went up against a third term Government has failed to become Prime Minister.

Even when a Government did got a 4th term as in 1946 and 1969, Sidney Holland and Norman Kirk went out to win the time after.

So it is more than likely Andrew Little will become Prime Minister. Normally I’d say he’d had a 65% chance or so of winning, as getting a fourth term is so difficult. But bearing in mind Labour’s awful 25% result, and their caucus issues, I’d say his chances at present are around 40% or so of winning in 2014 2017. That’s not an insignificant chance.

I also think he is likely to do better than his three predecessors in the job, for mainly one reason – authenticity. With Little, he will say what he honestly believes, and this is a prerequisite.

The previous three leaders have all suffered from the fact their natural instincts were out of kilter with what they thought they had to say and do.

Phil Goff was a 4th Labour Government Rogernome who as leader pushed policies to the left of Helen Clark.

David Shearer is a guy who wrote about how the private sector could play a useful role in the defence area, yet was forced to come up with a stunningly stupid policy to effectively nationalise the electricity generation industry.

David Cunliffe was the PPP champion in Helen Clark’s Government, but to win power had to reinvent himself as the red reverend.

Andrew Little is a professional unionist, whose beliefs and policies will not (or should not) change greatly in order to be Labour leader. This is a strength for him.

He has some significant handicaps with the 2014 election result and the caucus, but he has a more than decent chance of becoming Prime Minister.