Republican odds improving
Lindsay Addie has been doing a great job focusing in US politics. Thought I’d add my 2c as the elections are tomorrow.
Five Thirty Eight now has the Republicans at 75% to gain control of the Senate. Almost all pundits are picking they will increase their majority in the House also. The only downside for them is Gubernatorial races where they may lose three states – however they will remain in control of the executives in the majority of states.
The projections for the Senate are:
- Kansas – 51% probability Republican loss to an Independent
- Iowa – 67% probability Democrat loss to a Republican
- Colorada – 72% probability Democrat loss to a Republican
- Alaska – 72% probability Democrat loss to a Republican
- Louisiana – 81% probability Democrat loss to a Republican
- Arkanasas – 94% probability Democrat loss to a Republican
- West Virginia – 99% probability Democrat loss to a Republican
- South Dakota – >99% probability Democrat loss to a Republican
- Montana – >99% probability Democrat loss to a Republican
The Republicans only need a net gain of six. On this they could gain eight net. If they hold Kansas that is nine, and if they lose it but get a majority without Kansas the independent will caucus with them (he claims). So that may give them a buffer to retain the majority, if they gain it.
So the mid terms should be a good outcome for the Republicans, but not a landslide.
2016 could be interesting for Republicans as they will have 24 seats up, and Democrats only 10. They may only keep the majority for two years. That impacts the Supreme Court. If the Republicans can gain the Senate in 2014 and the Presidency in 2016 (a harder proposition cs Clinton) then they can block Obama replacing a Democratic nominee, and may end up with having a Republican nominee replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg (who would be 87 by 2020) or Stephen Breyer (83 by 2020).