Mills on Labour

UMR’s Stephen Mills writes:

Asked to define themselves on a 0-10 left to right scale based on degree of support or opposition for Government provision of services, the need for Governments to intervene in the economy and a progressive tax system, 30 per cent of New Zealanders were clearly left (0-3) on the scale; 42 per cent in the centre (4-6) and 25 per cent clearly right (7-10). As is often observed the centre is the battleground in New Zealand politics.

If the 42 per cent in the centre bloc are split up further 12 per cent go left ; 10 per cent go right and 20 per cent remain smack in the middle of the scale.

That leaves 42 per cent on the left; 35 per cent on the right and 20 per cent dead centre. At first sight that appears promising for centre left parties.

So why are Labour doing so badly?

The problem for Labour is that National is now both totally dominating the centre and winning more left votes than Labour and the Greens are winning right votes.

Amongst the “clearly left” Labour has 42 per cent; the Greens 25per cent ; National 19 per cent and New Zealand First 10 per cent. In the centre National has 56 per cent, Labour 18 per cent, the Greens 12 per cent and New Zealand First 9 per cent.

That is a fascinating and powerful stat. National is attracting three times as much support from centrist voters than Labour. Labour’s policies in opposition are well to the left of Helen Clark’s Government, and they are competing with the Greens for the left vote.