The Fiji election

The Herald reports:

The latest polls give the mercurial Bainimarama a popularity rating of 60 to 86 per cent, and suggest Fiji First will win the most seats – possibly even a clear majority – in the new, 50-member Parliament.

But not everyone believes the polls, and one unknown is the scale of a possible backlash by indigenous Fijians. They comprise about 57 per cent of Fiji’s 850,000 population, and are furious about Bainimarama’s abolition of the Great Council of Chiefs, a group of revered tribal leaders, and his insistence that the formerly influential Methodist Church stay out of politics.

Another factor which might be skewing the polls, is the reluctance of some voters to divulge their true intentions.

I expect Bainimarama will win the election, and become Prime Minister. What will be more interesting is how he does as PM, without the restrictions on media and political activity that have been in place. And if he becomes unpopular and faces losing at say the election after this one, will he accept that?