Armstrong on Labour

John Armstrong writes:

Already struggling to make any impact, Cunliffe’s campaign has taken a potentially fatal knock. With two opinion polls yesterday showing Labour marooned at around 25 per cent and National registering at 50 per cent or more, the election campaign may effectively be over.

The only question now is whether growing backing for Colin Craig’s Conservative Party will translate into actual votes on September 20 and in sufficient numbers to clear the 5 per cent threshold – and thus allow Craig to come to the negotiating table with enough seats for National not to have to deal with Winston Peters.

While it is too late to gift Craig an electorate seat, it is likely Key will make some carefully worded statement in the final week of the campaign giving licence for potential National voters to tick Conservative.

The possibility of Labour being in a position to form a government now looks to be virtually non-existent. With two weeks still go, Labour’s campaign is The March of the Living Dead.

If they can’t cobble together a six party coalition, then the focus will go on the leadership. Will Cunliffe fight to stay on? How many List MPs will Labour lose?