September 8, 2014 2:00pm by David Farrar

2011 vs 2014 polls two weeks out

I’ve had a look at the average of the four main polls (those that are members of the NZ Political Polling Code) today, and compared them to the polls two weeks before the last election. The relative positions are:

National polling 2.2% below 2011
Labour polling 3.1% below 2011
Greens polling 0.9% higher than 2011
NZ First polling 2.7% higher than 2011

Were the difference between the election result and the polls two weeks out to be the same this time, as in 2011, then the results would be:

National 45.2%
Labour 24.4%
Greens 12.0%
NZ First 9.3%

I don’t expect this to be the result. Each election and campaign is different. For example the publicity around the teapot recording gave Winston a late boost last time, while this time he is polling higher earlier on.

Also this only looks at the four larger parties. Two weeks out from 2011 the Conservatives were polling only around 1% and they got 2.7%. They’re currently averaging 3.2%, and an extra 1.7% would have them on 4.9%.