Labour third in Epsom

One News reports:

Six weeks out from the election and the National Party is leading the way in the Epsom electorate, a poll has revealed today.

A Colmar Brunton poll carried out by TVNZ’s Q + A programme sees National sitting with a comfortable lead in the Epsom electorate, with 60% of those polled in the electorate saying they would vote for National in the election.

The Green Party, in second place, trailed far behind with only 16% of Epsom voters saying they would give their party vote to the Greens.

Labour were 3rd on 14%.

This makes you wonder how many other seats or areas now have Labour in 3rd place for the party vote? The Greens will be very happy, and Labour should be quite worried.

When polled on who they would vote for with their electorate vote, 44% of Epsom voters said they would vote for National MP Paul Goldsmith while 32% said they would vote for Act Party candidate David Seymour.

When asked if they were aware that Prime Minister John Key is encouraging National Party supporters to give their electorate vote to the Act Party candidate, 70% said they were.

When asked if this would change who they would give their electorate vote to, 45% said they would vote for Act’s David Seymour, while 31% said they would still vote for National’s Paul Goldsmith.

That looks pretty comfortable for David Seymour. ACT have never actually led in a public pre-election poll in Epsom despite winning in 2005, 2008 and 2011.  So for them to be ahead six weeks out is a pretty strong signal that they will win the seat.

This means that a vote for ACT will not be a wasted vote. Last time they got 1.1%. If they get 0.1% more and get 1.2% then they get a second MP.