What a difference a year makes

This graph shows the price/probability at iPredict of there being a Labour Prime Minister after the 2014 election.

As one can see Labour’s chances were above or around 50% during 2012. In 2013 they dropped slightly but remained between 40% and 50%. Then Labour changed leaders and their chances increased to 60%. But look at what has happened in the last nine months. It has been a huge collapse, and this month they dropped below 20% probability for the first time.