Does UKIP doing well mean they will leave the EU?

Iain Martin writes at the Telegraph:

YouGov for The Sunday Times yesterday asked voters how they would vote in the event of a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU. Despite the country being, according to Ukippers, on the brink of a revolution which will bring down the entire political Establishment and liberate Britain from the LibLabCon tyranny, the numbers suggest that Britain wants to stay in the EU.

Asked how they would vote in an in/out referendum, 40 per cent said they would vote to stay in, 37 per cent said out, 18 per cent don’t know and 5 per cent would stay at home watching Cash in the Attic. Obviously a lot to play for, with as you might expect, a large number of don’t knows. Still, the inners are in front, despite all the recent excitement related to the European elections.

And look at the result when a second question was asked.

“Imagine the British government under David Cameron renegotiated our relationship with Europe and said that Britain’s interests were now protected, and David Cameron recommended that Britain remain a member of the European Union on the new terms. How would you then vote in a referendum on the issue?”

In such circumstances, 50 per cent say they would vote to stay in, 26 per cent to leave, 18 per cent don’t know and 5 per cent would stay at home watching the repeats of Location, Location, Location which (I’m told) follow Cash in the Attic.

So it could go either way if no renegotiation, but will stay in if there is one.

A caveat applies, of course. Perhaps Cameron would not get a renegotiation, with other major EU countries perhaps being incapable of seeing that unless there is a major shift in how the EU is structured one of its key members (the UK) could decide to try something else instead. 

It takes only one other country to block it, but if they do so then they will be responsible for the likely departure of the UK.

What I think we will see is a two-tier EU. One bloc being committed to full integration, and another to a less binding set of rules.

Before the hardliners from among the Ukip hordes – increasingly almost as intolerant of dissent as hardline Scottish nationalists, I note – denounce me as a traitor to my country, I want to make it clear that I am a moderate Eurosceptic who cherishes European culture but thinks the EU as currently constituted is bloated and bossy. In the event of a referendum I am persuadable, based on the arguments laid out by the inners and the outers, although like many people, I particularly hate being shouted at by golf club bar bores. I’m perfectly prepared to accept that the UK could have a successful and bright future trading as either an associate member of the EU or completely outside it with free trade agreements, if the outers explain, calmly, how the numerous obstacles might be overcome.

I have a similar view.