General Debate 14 March 2014

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Bill

Why does a Minster of Justice visit China on official business?

Why was the trip report, given to Winston after an Official Information Act request, heavily blacked out by Collins’ office?
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March 14, 2014 8:11am
Manolo

The insanity of the Greens: http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/green_pride/

Having a child is one of the worst things you can do, environmentally speaking.
As long as you have a house, mains power and a vehicle you cannot be living ethically.
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March 14, 2014 8:13am
Bovver

Crusher in tears, JK pissed off, the Fabians getting a few good hits in, doesn’t take much for a “non story” to quickly spin out of control.

NZH is also trying to embarrass the Nat’s drip feeding the story on Citizen Liu.

Here’s hoping Shane Jones keeps going off the reservation with his attacks on the Watermelons or DC puts his foot in his mouth yet again.
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March 14, 2014 8:13am
lolitasbrother

Q

http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.co.nz/
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March 14, 2014 8:15am
Pete George

When polls are unfavourable cellphones often get the blame, or a supposed lack of them in polling.

Rob Salmond points out the rapid move to cellphone use and the shrinking of landline use.

But Andrew at Grumpollie says:

Calling cells is not, and will never be, the magic bullet for opinion polling.

There’s a lot of factors involved in trying to get accurate polling. On polls and cellphones
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March 14, 2014 8:18am
Scott Chris

Odd thing to say:

People living in poorer parts of the country are putting the payment of their Sky Television account ahead of paying their electricity bill, according to Mighty River Power boss Doug Heffernan.

Errm, like to see ’em watch Sky TV without any power Doug.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/9826360/Power-firms-at-bottom-of-payment-food-chain
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March 14, 2014 8:25am
Komata

Concerning the missing Malaysian Airlines flight (yes, sorry, again).

If the 0600 RNZ news is to be believed, the Malaysian’s have discounted both the Chinese satellite and Rolls Royce engines data as being of no consequence, which, given Rolls Royce’s international reputation specifically, is very surprising. The very specific map references and other information given by the New Zealander, are also apparently being dismissed as being of no value.

To quote the famous line in Hamlet, there is very definitely ‘Something rotten in the state of Denmark’ in this regard, almost to the point of willfullness on the part of the Malaysians.

Conspiracy theorists are now gathering in their droves.

Very strange…
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March 14, 2014 8:25am
Ross12

Good to hear Mike Hosking having a good go at Len Brown this morning. Worth looking up the replay if it is available.
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March 14, 2014 8:25am
Elaycee

It appears the Hoorald has kicked off their election campaign….

Around 7am today, a radio advert for the Hoorald breathlessly spoke of a ‘new twist’ in the saga of the Chinese gent first granted permanent residency by Damien O’Connor in 2005 and who then saw fit to donate (shock, horror) to National some years later. We know the rest – because we’ve read about it on Kiwiblog or on WhaleOil.

I don’t get the Hoorald – we cancelled our subscriptions a while back. But we took one for the team this morning and checked out this ‘story’ online….. apparently this gent has been charged with domestic assault – a charge his lawyer says has been denied and will be ‘vigorously defended’ in Court. I’m not downplaying a domestic violence charge (who could?), but the case hasn’t even been heard and certainly not proven. But that hasn’t stopped the Hoorald from trying to convert this ‘revelation’ into something that could tarnish National.

There can be no doubt the once respected NZ Hoorald is a left wing tabloid gasping for oxygen within the diminishing ranks of the ‘MSM’. If ever they wonder why their readership numbers are in free fall, they can find the answer via a mirror.

We really deserve better.
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March 14, 2014 8:26am
Nostalgia-NZ

Bill 8.11. I’d like to know the answers to those questions as well, not because I’m anti National but because terms like,
‘just a glass of milk,’ ‘close friends, have xmas together’, and ‘short’ dinners are not responsible comments coming from a Minister who has failed to mention critical details in a report, deleted others under a OIA request and let the PM get blindsided by it all. It may suit you, but unfortunately it looks like JK’s good management has been undermined by someone unable to see the boundaries of a Ministerial role as opposed to self interest.
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March 14, 2014 8:32am
igm

Who is this little weasel Jared Savage at The Herald? He appears to be trying for nomination in a safe Labour seat. This is the type of left-wing arsehole that is neither use nor ornament to media.
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March 14, 2014 8:35am
Simon

Laura Cunliffe jailed for microwaving family pet kitten.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-26563326#TWEET1070993

Any relation?

Though its quite likely our beloved Cunliffe along with Wussel will be microwaving NZ’s economy instead.
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March 14, 2014 8:45am
ShawnLH

Liberal-Left fascism at work again:

“A teenage pro-life demonstrator who claims she was assaulted by a feminist studies professor at the University of California in Santa Barbara during a campus event this month told FoxNews.com she is more determined than ever to protest against abortion. “Before she grabbed the sign, she was mocking me and talking over me in front of the students, saying that she was twice as old as me and had three degrees, so they should listen to her and not me,”

Here’s the kicker though:

The Lefty professor is “Miller-Young, whose faculty web page says she specializes in black cultural studies and pornography”

Yup.

“Miller-Young pushed Short at least three times, the student alleges, as she tried to stop an elevator door from closing as the educator stood inside with her sign.”

“Kristina Garza, director of campus outreach for the nonprofit pro-life group, said Miller-Young initially tried to lead a small group of students to protest the anti-abortion advocates before simply grabbing Short’s sign herself. We recognize the irony of the incident,” Garza told FoxNews.com. “The professor is a feminist studies professor and her specialty is pornography, and she did commit an act of violence against another woman. So, the irony there to us is rather great.”

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/03/13/teen-abortion-protester-defiant-after-alleged-attack-by-feminist-professor/
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March 14, 2014 8:51am
Harriet

Micky Savage@

Last week you mocked me about a spelling mistake Micky:

LOL……….Have a look at this:

http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2014/03/how_hard_is_it_to_proof_read_12_words_or_so.html/comment-page-1#comment-1290231

Have a noice day Micky!

That will fix that smartarse at The Stranded. I just posted it over there. 😎
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March 14, 2014 8:57am
peterwn

Genesis Share Offer:
https://www.genesisenergyshares.govt.nz/home/

The presentation of the investor statement, while being very cute, is IMO a disaster. It seems to have been designed by graphics and web designers as a work of art rather than something that is usable and readable. Just putting up a facsimile of a heavily designed print version of a document just does not cut the mustard any more. These things need to be designed for the web first, then converted to a print version.
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March 14, 2014 9:16am
mandk

@ Manolo,
The Greens want us to live like those anarcho-syndicalist peasants in Monty Python and the Holy Grail 🙂
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March 14, 2014 9:28am
Harriet

ShawnLH#

I read about that assault elsewhere earlier this morning.

The police were at first not too bothered about it – untill they saw the cellphone recording of it – and the scratches on the victim’s arm. They are going to press charges it is believed.
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March 14, 2014 9:32am
Harriet

“…..The Greens want us to live like those anarcho-syndicalist peasants in Monty Python and the Holy Grail…”

Well it wouldn’t be anything that reflects the Life of Brian Mandk. 😎
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March 14, 2014 9:34am
EAD

Best analysis I have read on flight MH370 once again from the excellent ZeroHedge:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-13/what-happened-flight-370-analysis-what-known

I won’t spoil the sequential analysis but it concludes with excellent reasoning that:
“This leads to the conclusion that the aircraft was still being flown by the pilots, i.e. conscious decisions were being made by either the pilots or someone who had seized control of the flight deck”
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March 14, 2014 9:45am
Manolo

Shame Jones apologises: http://news.msn.co.nz/nationalnews/8813972/collins-upset-by-defamatory-remark
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March 14, 2014 9:47am
stephieboy

Harriet, calm your hysterics.!
The day is still young.
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March 14, 2014 9:51am
Manolo

For those of us who follow the stock market: the Dow takes a hit.

U.S. equities fell, with the S&P 500 taking its worst fall since February 3, as traders fretted about the Chinese economy and financial system.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average went down 230 points, or 1.4%, to 16110, the S&P 500 declined 21.8 points, or 1.2%, to 1846, and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 62.9 points, or 1.5%, to 4260.
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March 14, 2014 9:52am
Manolo

Putin must be shaking in his boots: http://washingtonexaminer.com/john-kerry-russia-has-until-monday-to-reverse-course-in-ukraine/article/2545610

Secretary of State John Kerry warned of serious repercussions for Russia on Monday if last-ditch talks over the weekend to resolve the crisis in Ukraine failed to persuade Moscow to soften its stance.
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March 14, 2014 10:05am
peterwn

Scott Chris – If Sky is concerned about losing viewers because their power is off for non-payment, Sky can always arrange the import of pedal TV’s. Sheriff Joe Arpaio (who runs a prison system about the size of NZ corrections) could be asked who supplies them.
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March 14, 2014 10:06am
Manolo

As Bloomberg sees NZ: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-12/n-z-raises-key-rate-to-become-first-developed-nation-to-tighten.html
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March 14, 2014 10:07am
griffith

Cyclone lusi is now to expected to glance the tip of Northland and stay off shore as it tours the South Islands west coast.
Weather will still be Wet n Wild .
http://metservice.com/maps-radar/rain-forecast/rain-forecast-3-day
No storm watching for Griff this week end.
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March 14, 2014 10:08am
Bill

Nostralgia @8.52
I’ve looked on her department’s web site and found a speech she gave in China. She was talking about corruption! It is a gem!

“It is the New Zealand government’s view that having a clean and transparent government helps to build trust and support among its people. This allows the Government to act with confidence and purpose in developing policy and making change. This in turn allows the country, its economy, and its people to prosper.”
http://www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/address-china-executive-leadership-academy-pudong-celap-china
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March 14, 2014 10:16am
griffith

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/09/uk-china-strikes-idUKBREA2804N20140309

It was amazing to see Tiananmen Square and the Fall of the Wall.

That happened before we all got so connected.

Connected tech that is becoming inseparable from our everyday lives.

The Chines leaders must be pissing themselfs that the bubble will burst unleashing a distributed network of middle-class protest and unrest.</blockquote
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March 14, 2014 10:28am
gump

@Komata

Regarding the Malaysian situation – never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity.
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March 14, 2014 10:42am
Ed Snack

MH 370 Update for anyone interested. The summary (see EAD’s comment above) at Zerohedge is out of date and inaccurate in several places. Komata above is up to date.

The US data sources are now saying that they did not access ACARS data sent from the aircraft directly. That BTW has been specifically denied by RR, Boeing, and the NTSB. Instead they claim that the aircraft was fitted (all T7’s are) with the ability to send additional maintenance and monitoring data to RR (in this case with RR engines) and Boeing. MSA did not subscribe to this service so nothing was actually sent, but the mechanism that sends this data was active and it sends brief interrogation “pings” to satellites at approx 30 minute intervals to indicate a willingness to communicate. The US appears to be saying that this is what they detected on an analysis of satellite logs. This is relatively new information and took time to tease out.

The implications are still very significant. Disclaimer, we still have no absolute confirmation that this is legit but the US military (and others now such as the Indians) seem to be acting as though it is correct.

1. The “pings” are sent to Geo-stationary satellites (and by VHF on polar flights, just FYI) by the Satcom system on the aircraft. This is the same system used to send the actual ACARS data. Therefore this system was available and therefore no ACARS was sent because the ACARS reporting was disabled, either deliberately or it was “broke”.

2. The “pings” were said to be recorded for around 4 hours. The advanced reporting system apparently does this every 30 minutes approx. Thus the implication is that the aircraft was intact and active (flying or powered up on the ground) for that period.

3. If the aircraft had continued on its initial course, it would have entered Vietnamese and then Chinese air-defence zones in a short period of time. Both countries deny detecting the aircraft by military radar, therefore it is extremely unlikely it went that way. Therefore it must have changed course away from those countries.

4. The Malaysians have given the US and China their radar logs/raw data so these will by now have been analysed to the extent possible by professionals. There were unexplained “blips” as announced by the Malaysians, unfortunately the public announcements seem to indicate two widely separated areas (Pulau Perak and further North just off Phuket). The latest announcements focus on the Phuket sighting so we’ll stick with that.

5. The Phuket blip is suspicious. It has flown to that area apparently via a course designed to minimize radar exposure, Malay coverage is mostly further South and the Thai’s don’t have military cover in the South (or so I believe from what i can find out, this may be incorrect though) and there’s just the civilian radar at Phuket. The height, FL295 (Flight Level 29,500 ft) is suspicious, all controlled aircraft fly at round 1000’s so the 500 looks deliberate to avoid any other traffic). There is a scheduled SIA flight through the same area at the same time, and that normally flies “low” at FL300 due to a heavy fuel load; may be coincidence. Also, FL295 is above any recovery height from anoxia.

6. The timing of the flight going out of contact is also suspicious. The last contact is the sign off to Malaysian ATC at I think 1:21. Vietnamese ATC attempts to contact the aircraft 3 minutes later and fails. Based on that VATC asks another aircraft to attempt a VHF radio call to MH 370, they say they succeed but get an unintelligible response (mumbling) and then the call is terminated/fails, this at 1:30 am. Then silence. At the same time (1:21 or thereabouts) the aircraft transponder stops responding and the main civilian radar “loses” MH 370. This relies on interrogation/response via the transponder for aircraft ID, speed, heading. What better time to go “missing” than at hand-over, it certainly muddies the waters and causes delays in follow up. Either this is coincidental timing or it is planned either by pilots or hijackers in the cockpit already who are aware of the handover point.

7. Finally, as mentioned above, the US is moving a warship, USS Kidd (Arleigh-Burke class destroyer) West, and the Indians are sending ship(s), plus aircraft are being redeployed to the Andaman Sea and possible even to the Indian Ocean. Between the Andaman and the Indian there are the Andaman Islands, and India has a military presence there, I can’t easily find out how much presence and if the have sophisticated air-defence radars. Note that at a lower level the flight endurance is lower. It looks like the US at least is prioritizing a search at the 4-4:30 hour endurance range of a T7 in teh Andaman area, FWIW.

Three scenarios: One is a hijack/pilot take over at the handover point, all comms switched off via circuit breakers but satcom left active hence the detected “pings”. Course set North and West around radar coverage towards the Indian ocean and plane flies until landed or crashes. Main problem, why ? Second is major accident, say crew oxygen bottle explodes taking out almost all comms and electrical systems. Crew initiates emergency descent after donning masks, but because accident incapacitates crew oxygen they stuff it up under pressure and set descent to only say FL295 and not FL10-15 which would be normal; plus a turn to head back to KL. Crew passes out from anoxia and can’t correct, plane continues at FL295 in westerly direction until fuel exhaustion as a “ghost flight” like Helios flight 522. Problems, a lot of coincidences required and why is satcom spared ? Three, the “pings are wrong and we don’t know how long it flew. Plane could be anywhere but most likely impacted relatively intact into SCS or Gulf of Thailand area after a turn of some sort (Chinese radar may have seen a change of heading). Problems, why no debris or black box signal, area has been fairly well searched.

There will be more, but at this stage the US at least seems pretty convinced that it flew West and crashed “out there”.
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March 14, 2014 10:42am
Ed Snack

Sorry about the monster post !
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March 14, 2014 10:49am
griffith

Try using “

http://wpbtips.wordpress.com/2011/11/19/blockquote-style/
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March 14, 2014 11:08am
Tauhei Notts

I see in this morning’s NZ Herald that somebody insulted Judith Collins by calling her Countess Homo-genised.
Turns out it was Wellington Central’s Count Homo. I think the “O” in Count is superfluous when referring to that M.P.
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March 14, 2014 11:17am
All_on_Red

Ed,
Good info. I’m picking scenario two. Didn’t that happen to that golfer in his Lear Jet in the US? No oxygen, they all died and the jet flew for another 500 miles. I remember they had a pair of F16’s following it ready to blow it up but it crashed in the desert.
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March 14, 2014 11:24am
twofish

Yesterday the Green party announced that they think it would be a good idea to spend $50 million over four years to encourage kids to walk or ride bikes to school.

So now 85,000 children living in poverty suddenly need bicycles.
Pedophiles may take a little time to catch up, as will building bike sheds for those schools which don’t have them.
But bringing those back could improve sex education.
________

People living in poorer parts of the country are putting the payment of their Sky Television account ahead of paying their electricity bill according to Mighty River Power boss Doug Heffernan.

Well, that can’t last long, can it?
________

An enemy of Auckland Mayor Len Brown may lose her home after refusing to pay her rates.

A sparrow, near dead in winter frosts was dropped into steaming fresh pile of horse manure where the warmth revived it, but then eating more than it should have of undigested oats, it chirped loud enough to fatally attract the barnyard cat.
1] it is not always your enemies that drop you in the shit
2] it is not always your friends that lift you up out of it, and
3] if you are full of shit, don’t make a song and dance about it.
4] especially on a national radio network and kiwiblog

The letter, Penny, suggests you contact the Auckland Council to discuss payments options, and it is from Joanne Lanigan, Credit Control Rates Team Leader, not Len Brown.

A down-payment may yet call the dogs off – not the watchdogs, but the other ones.
But then the deadline does appear to be next Monday.
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March 14, 2014 11:29am
big bruv

Hey Penny.

Get the “for sale” signs up girl!

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/9825216/Activist-faces-forced-house-sale
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March 14, 2014 11:35am
Ed Snack

Just an update again; note that the “satellite ping data from MH 370 continued for approx 4 hours” is now very official in the USA anyway. White House press secretary Jay Carney has quoted that, so if it is incorrect there’s going to be some huge, high-level embarrassment.

So at least for now I’m inclined to treat it as correct. I don’t think the data could continue post any impact (requires power that surely would be disrupted in any significant impact) so the aircraft was flying or landed with power on (which is pretty unlikely).

I wonder if Malaysia will accept this info at face value, it would appear to rule out the Gulf of Thailand/South China Sea as an impact zone. Only if Vietnam & China are collaborating and being massively deceptive could the aircraft have penetrated their air-space and landed, and I would discount that completely.

This just leaves the Westwards course, either as a “ghost flight” after an accident disables comms AND crew oxygen AND cabin crew cannot penetrate the cockpit AND satcomms remain active when all other comms knocked out (or accidentally disabled before crew unconsciousness, unlikely but possible); or Takeover/Hijack for unknown reasons.

One comment from a reporter is that this situation now consists of a morning with US/European speculation and theories followed by an evening press conference where all is denied; repeat daily.
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March 14, 2014 11:42am
Ed Snack

All-on_Red, yes, see also Helios 522 in 2005. Departed Cyprus for Greece with the cabin pressurization in maintenance mode and hence inactive. They received a number of warnings but confused them with landing gear warnings and ignored them, also ignored direct engineers question to check status of pressurization unit, and before the problem was identified all passed out and aircraft was on AP at over FL300. Got to Greece where they scrambled F-16’s to observe. The pilots actually saw a flight attendant enter the cockpit (must have had supplementary portable oxygen, but it was a couple of hours in so not clear how he was still awake) and attempt to take over, but although he had actually started flight training he didn’t have time to figure anything out as one engine flamed out about 10 minutes after he got in and the aircraft went unstable then the other engine quit and it spiralled into high terrain.

For MH 370 the big issue is why the comms silence if the (as it now seems likely) the satcom system was still active and available.
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March 14, 2014 11:50am
Fletch

Yeh, the Mail Online is talking about the hijack scenario as well, and that passengers are being held for another purpose.

US investigators think that Malaysian Airlines flight 370 remained airborne for four more hours after vanishing from its last recorded position – raising the startling prospect the plane could have been hijacked.

Officials suspect that the plane flew for a total of five hours based on data automatically downloaded from the Boeing 777’s Rolls Royce engines and sent back to the ground as part of a routine monitoring program.

US counter-terrorism teams are now pursuing the astonishing possibility that the plane and its 239 passengers were diverted to an undisclosed location ‘with the intention of using it later for another purpose’.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2579524/Hijacked-hidden-US-counter-terror-officials-fear-plane-captured-debris-spotted-Chinese-ruled-new-data-reveals-airborne-FOUR-hours-vanishing.html
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March 14, 2014 12:00pm
wikiriwhis business

The Australian and New Zealand authorities have been talking for years about simplifying trans-Tasman travel and bringing the two countries into a common security zone, but we’re still waiting.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/9828422/Should-flights-across-the-Tasman-be-domestic

The NZ govt is too focused on revenue to allow simpler access to Oz.

That’s the real hold up.
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March 14, 2014 12:03pm
wikiriwhis business

‘Hey Penny.

Get the “for sale” signs up girl!”

She owes $29,000 since only 2008.

If one thing she’s exposed the rip off rate pricing in Auks!!!

and Len stil has 3 years ahead to cause macro damage and he won’t be stopped!!!
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March 14, 2014 12:07pm
dime

bruv – as much as i hate rates and the council…. LMFAO!!!
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March 14, 2014 12:13pm
Judith

Excuse my ignorance, I know nothing about aerodynamics, nor airplanes let alone systems used to track air traffic throughout the world, but is there any chance at all that flight 370 could have landed in some country, had it been hijacked? Are the detection systems able to tell that or is it definite that it has to have ditched into the ocean “somewhere”?
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March 14, 2014 12:15pm
wikiriwhis business

At least 7 dead in New York blast

Rescue workers using dogs and thermal-detection gear are searching the rubble for victims of a gas explosion that killed at least seven people, while New York City investigators tried to find the leak and determine whether it had anything to do with ageing gas and water mains, some dating to the 19th century

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/9828100/At-least-7-dead-in-New-York-blast

here’s a vid of the NY blast StephyBoy denied yesterday .

If he’s wrong about this how much more is he wrong about ???
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March 14, 2014 12:17pm
dime

Hope they sell Pennys house to the chinese 🙂
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March 14, 2014 12:18pm
Ed Snack

Fletch, update, it isn’t based on ACARS DATA, but from transmission initiation contacts that another part of the system makes even if that part isn’t being used by the particular carrier.

Apparently MSA used the basic ACARS that sends data only on certain triggers, hence it sent two transmissions that were received, one post take off (probably signally engine status change from take-off state to climb) and a second at 1:07 probably at the transition to cruise at FL350. If the aircraft had a problem and the engine settings were changed (deliberate descent because of depressurization or the like) then another signal should have been triggered, but nothing was received by RR. Thus either there was no such transition or ACARS (or the transmission system) was inoperative.

What the US is apparently saying is that there’s an advanced feature that allows 30 minute status updates on a broader range of information to be sent to Boeing and the engine supplier (here RR). MSA did NOT subscribe to this (apparently it is quite expensive) BUT, even if not subscribed the system itself is installed on the aircraft and it does connect to the satellites at those 30 minute intervals even if no data is actually passed due to no subscription. So no data, nothing sent to RR or Boeing; however by interrogation of the satellite logs NSA (or whoever) has been able to (apparently) confirm that the contacts were made for some 4 hours. I believe (but can’t confirm) that this uses the same comms channels as the normal ACARS. So, RR and Boeing won’t have data, nor will the Malaysians, they’re being perfectly correct when they say that.

This very strongly suggests one of two scenarios, either the ACARS is off because it is switched off; or, it is off because some accident has disabled the ACARS standard system (AND the transponder, AND VHF, etc) but NOT the advanced ACARS software OR the satcom system. That’s awfully specific; but possible. And if ACARS is deliberately switched off, that’s an aircraft takeover/hijack scenario.

That all assumes that the US sources are correct, but it’s been repeated officially at the highest level. The Malaysians can blow off the WSJ as unreliable, a lot harder to do so to Jay Carney as official White House press secretary.

Sorry to be so “anal” about this; there’s so much misunderstood and misrepresented data that gets repeated over and over again; it is important to get it correct, remain skeptical in the right (scientific) way, so the important issues can be addressed.
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March 14, 2014 12:20pm
Ed Snack

Judith (sigh, more posting, sorry). A T7 requires a pretty extensive runway and facilities to land, there are a number of suitable airfields in the region but all are basically far too well known and run by at least reasonably reputable governments to allow a “stolen” T7 to land unnoticed. Perhaps Burma, but that seems a stretch.

To get to North Korea I think is marginal for range unless it flew through Chinese or Japanese controlled airspace, in which case its 99% certain to have been sighted; things are “sensitive” up that way. Philippines, highly unlikely, Brunei/Sarawak/Borneo etc, again nothing non-official suitable that is known. And too likely to be seen. Indonesia, again no non-official airfields and too likely to be seen, but *could* have crashed in a mountainous part of Sumatra in the big national park they have and not have been seen, if the Pulau Perak sighting is correct it could have gone that way; unlikely. Further out, nothing in Thailand, Burma, maybe, but it isn’t isolated enough to stop something getting out. India or Sri Lanka, hardly. Conspiracy could put it on Car Nicobar under Indian control but why. It could possibly reach Diego Garcia. Pakistan/Iran/Somalia, vaguely possible if the fuel load was larger than normal (certainly within T7 range if fueled for it) but only if transit Indian airspace and it would seem unlikely that it could do so undetected.

Summary, almost certainly not. It could maybe survivably crash somewhere remote in the Andamans or Nicobars, crash undetected anywhere at sea or in high ground possibly Malaysia, Indonesia, vaguely possible Thailand/Vietnam/Burma.

Odds on by a huge margin it’s ditched. My guess for now is in the Andaman sea (believing the US info is valid) or possibly further out; second best guess still undetected in the South China Sea, possibly a significant distance off the normal track.
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March 14, 2014 12:34pm
wikiriwhis business

America’s shrinking deficit

The US government is running a deficit that is 23.6 per cent lower than in the same period a year ago through the first five months of this budget year, another sign of improvement in the nation’s finances.

In its monthly budget report, the Treasury Department said on Thursday that the deficit for February totalled US$193.5 billion ($225.8b), the largest monthly imbalance in a year.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/9827927/Americas-shrinking-deficit

Anyone actually find this credible ????
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March 14, 2014 12:36pm
Judith

@ Ed Snack

Thank you – I guess there is not much point in maintaining an optimistic stance then.

Those poor families – I just hope they get the answers they need and do not have to live with the pain of not knowing.
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March 14, 2014 12:41pm
Ed Snack

Judith, no, I’d guess zero chance of surviving by now unless there’s something even more bizarre to be revealed. If it’s not some improbable accident it does seem hard to come up with an explanation of quite what happened.
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March 14, 2014 12:48pm
eszett

@Ed Snack, thanks for the great and interesting summary!
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March 14, 2014 12:50pm
dime

wiki – is that like len brown pating himself on the back cause the rates increase last year were lower than the year before.. even though there was still an increase…
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March 14, 2014 1:11pm
Ed Snack

Possible correction, it is unclear (to me anyway) if the 30 minute satellite detected “pings” are initiated by the advanced ACARS via the SATCOM or simply by the SATCOM unit on its own. So the entire ACARS system may have been offline, but the SATCOM wasn’t; so no universal power failure. VHF was not offline at same time as Transponder either, but at least 9 minutes later.
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March 14, 2014 1:12pm
stephieboy

wikiwiriwhis, I was scrutinizing your apparent attempt to make a connection between the gas main explosion in N Y and the Rocket attack from Gaza.
It seemed rather nonsensical but please elaborate and clarify if you can.?
America’s shrinking deficit credible.?
Why not.?
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March 14, 2014 1:12pm
wreck1080

What contradictory stories in stuff today…

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9826406/Producers-warn-high-dollar-will-cut-deep

Jobs are being lost and firms are considering moving factories overseas because of the strong New Zealand dollar, being pushed up by interest rate increases, manufacturing sector bosses say

This is rubbish, as evidenced by the same newspaper. …

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9828448/Manufacturing-expansion-continues

So, on one hand manufacturing is bigger than ever, and on the other hand bosses are saying it is a disaster.
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March 14, 2014 1:21pm
UglyTruth

A T7 requires a pretty extensive runway and facilities to land, there are a number of suitable airfields in the region but all are basically far too well known and run by at least reasonably reputable governments to allow a “stolen” T7 to land unnoticed. Perhaps Burma, but that seems a stretch.

Diego Garcia.
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March 14, 2014 1:29pm
stephieboy

I believe 370 has disappeared due to some catastrophic event , mechanical or intervention by hijackers.In this day and age landing options at a friendly or remote airfield would be almost non existent .
But one thing we can rule out is a conspiracy or say a mythic bermuda triangle phenomena.
I wonder if it would be appropriate to call in Ken Ring or a Psychic.?
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March 14, 2014 1:44pm
Manolo

America’s shrinking deficit credible?
Why not?

Not while the Kenyan is president. 😀
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March 14, 2014 1:48pm
Ed Snack

UglyTruth, sure and nobody says anything ? DG is a US military base, it does rather beggar the imagination why and how the US would “capture” this aircraft. If they did, why on earth would they then release information that would help point towards DG as a destination ? Sorry, but barring (and I feel I have to say this these days) some truly bizarre circumstances (and i mean TRULY BIZARRE) then there’s no way that MH 370 could have got to DG and we wouldn’t already know about it.
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March 14, 2014 1:56pm
stephieboy

Manolo, new subscriptions and membership are sought,

http://kkk.bz/?page_id=493

Go for it.!
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March 14, 2014 2:16pm
NoCash

I subscribe to the theory that MH370 has been hijacked and landed somewhere. The way the US is drip feeding info to the media is intriguing.

I wonder if there’s a massive preparation effort underway by the elite forces getting ready to conduct a hostage rescue operation.

I think the repercussion of this incident will be on a similar scale as 9/11.

Now, who will own the movie rights?
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March 14, 2014 2:26pm
cha

Well, they are recruiting…

/

One of those fliers says “many people have experienced the blacks firsthand” and have seen the “savagery and animalism in many of these people.”

The flier that went to Chesterfield residents says the organization’s mission is “exalting the Caucasian race and teaching the doctrine of white supremacy.”

“That does not mean that we are enemies of the colored and mongrel race, but it does mean that we are organized to establish the solidarity and to realize the mission of the white race,” that flier reads.

http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/local/chesterfield/chesterfield-residents-receive-kkk-fliers/article_ed60e60e-78ec-55f4-a6ef-0d579292069f.html
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March 14, 2014 2:38pm
stephieboy

Nocash,

“I think the repercussion of this incident will be on a similar scale as 9/11.”

Care to elaborate.?
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March 14, 2014 2:47pm
NoCash

*IF* MH370 was indeed hijacked and landed somewhere, can you imagine the impact to the airline industry around the world. Even more airport security, more anti-terrorist measures that would be imposed by govts around the world.

Not to mention the revelation of the sophistication of the terrorist capable of undertaking such an act, and how would that affect the global political landscape.
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March 14, 2014 3:10pm
srylands

“I subscribe to the theory that MH370 has been hijacked and landed somewhere. The way the US is drip feeding info to the media is intriguing.”

I doubt that very much. Where to start? A 777 needs a major runway to land on – at least 2500 m. Such facilities are near comms – like cell phone towers – don’t you think one of the passengers might have phoned by now?
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March 14, 2014 3:19pm
Fletch

An interesting map that people are linking to on Facebook today that shows wind (and other conditions) on an animated earth map. Interesting. If you click on ‘earth’ on the left of the screen you can add +3 hours or a day.

Using the scroll wheel zooms in or out, and dragging the mouse rotates the earth.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-190.32,-36.93,833
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March 14, 2014 3:25pm
NoCash

srylands – if there’s a gun pointing at you and you’re told to hand over your mobile phones, what would you do?

Besides, a cellphone signal jamming device is not hard to get.

Disclaimer: I have my conspiracy theorist hat on.
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March 14, 2014 3:32pm
cha

I subscribe to the theory that MH370 has been hijacked and landed somewhere. The way the US is drip feeding info to the media is intriguing.

Yeah, and it’ll be parked up along side UA93 in Ernst Stavro Blofeld’s hanger.
/
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March 14, 2014 3:36pm
Fletch

It looks like Lithuania is planning to ban gay parades as well, if a vote passes today.

Lithuania’s parliament will vote Thursday on legislation that would impose a fine on those found guilty of “contempt” of “moral values” enshrined in the country’s constitution.

The Lithuanian Gay League describes the proposal as a “Russian style anti-gay ‘propaganda law.’” But Lithuania already has a law specifically prohibiting information that “denigrates family values” or “encourages a concept of marriage and family other than stipulated in the Constitution… and the Civil Code of the Republic of Lithuania” that has been on the books since 2009. (The legislation previously prohibited the promotion of “homosexual, bisexual or polygamous relations” but that was changed under pressure from the European Union, of which Lithuania is a member.)

The new proposal specifically prohibits speeches, posters, audiovisual materials, and other means of organizing in support of LGBT rights. In a memorandum justifying the bill, its sponsor, lawmaker Petras Gražulis specifies that it targets “events such as gay pride march and parades.” It would impose a fine of up to the equivalent of about $2400 for those found guilty of repeat offenses.

The proposal is one of several bills targeting LGBT people that are pending before parliament in the coming months, including an explicit ban on adoptions by same-sex couples and the outlawing of gender reassignment surgery.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/lesterfeder/lithuanian-parliament-to-vote-thursday-on-law-intended-to-ba

It looks like there’s a backlash against the pushing of the gay agenda, particularly in eastern European countries.
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March 14, 2014 3:51pm
cha

WSJ – MH307 continued to transmit.

Malaysia Airlines missing jet transmitted its location repeatedly to satellites over the course of five hours after it disappeared from radar, people briefed on the matter said, as searchers zeroed in on new target areas hundreds of miles west of the plane’s original course.

The satellites also received speed and altitude information about the plane from its intermittent “pings,” the people said. The final ping was sent from over water, at what one of these people called a normal cruising altitude. They added that it was unclear why the pings stopped. One of the people, an industry official, said it was possible that the system sending them had been disabled by someone on board.

http://online.wsj.com/news/article_email/SB10001424052702304185104579437573396580350-lMyQjAxMTA0MDEwMzExNDMyWj
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March 14, 2014 3:58pm
griffith

Thanks fletch that is an Owesome app

You can watch for the westerly bursts developing in the north-west pacific. El Nino’s signature. If Enso flips 2014/2015 is going to smash the global temperature records.
Wingnuts will have to find a new distraction instead of it has not warmed for x years since the last big El Nino weather advent
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
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March 14, 2014 4:03pm
RightNow

I heard the plane flew for hours after contact was lost. If the pilot lost a contact that probably explains a lot.
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March 14, 2014 4:04pm
stigie

Thought this was clever from someone over at the Stranded !!~

“Is there somewhere we can donate to help you keep your house, your madjesty?

If we donate, do you promise to not accuse us of corruption for funding Auckland City Council”?
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March 14, 2014 4:39pm
jcuk

303 die from airbags failing to open but why there was need for them to open was not researched …. how dumb can people be?
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March 14, 2014 4:56pm
UglyTruth

UglyTruth, sure and nobody says anything ? DG is a US military base, it does rather beggar the imagination why and how the US would “capture” this aircraft.

Firstly, this is just speculation from a tinfoil hat perspective and any connection to reality may be purely coincidental.

I’m not suggesting that the entire US administration was involved, only some people at DG. Nobody from the US Navy said anything about the TWA800 shootdown for quite a while either, and a 777 landing at DG in the early hours could well be a non-event for the locals.

The reason why they would do this could be due to a problem with Freescale, who have an involvement in defence technology. 20 passengers from Freescale were on TWA800.

If they did, why on earth would they then release information that would help point towards DG as a destination ?

The thing about extraordinary operations is they tend to keep the number of people involved to a miniumum. Most of the US security apparatus probably just think it’s a mystery and are looking for leads like everybody else.

Sorry, but barring (and I feel I have to say this these days) some truly bizarre circumstances (and i mean TRULY BIZARRE) then there’s no way that MH 370 could have got to DG and we wouldn’t already know about it.

Who would tell you if the scenario I described was real?
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March 14, 2014 5:40pm
Reid

From the moment that art ceases to be food that feeds the best minds, the artist can use his talents to perform all the tricks of the intellectual charlatan. Most people can today no longer expect to receive consolation and exaltation from art. The ‘refined,’ the rich, the professional ‘do-nothings’, the distillers of quintessence desire only the peculiar, the sensational, the eccentric, the scandalous in today’s art.

I myself, since the advent of Cubism, have fed these fellows what they wanted and satisfied these critics with all the ridiculous ideas that have passed through my mind. The less they understood them, the more they admired me. Through amusing myself with all these absurd farces, I became celebrated, and very rapidly. For a painter, celebrity means sales and consequent affluence. Today, as you know, I am celebrated, I am rich.

But when I am alone, I do not have the effrontery to consider myself an artist at all, not in the grand old meaning of the word: Giotto, Titian, Rembrandt, Goya were great painters. I am only a public clown – a mountebank. I have understood my time and have exploited the imbecility, the vanity, the greed of my contemporaries. It is a bitter confession, this confession of mine, more painful than it may seem. But at least and at last it does have the merit of being honest.

Pablo Picasso, 1952
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March 14, 2014 5:53pm
Sofia

Not so nice, John

So for several days Labour attempt to assassinate Judith Collins’ character, with some help from John Key, who of course is just covering his own arse, but need not have made comments about what he called Judith’s too “cute” answers to a few journalists’ questions. Disappointing.

As was “disappointing’, to say the least, Key’s own cute answers a little while back over whether he, Key, had read the police report on John Banks. The whole country [except fucking Pants Down Len Brown who was doing someone else at the time] knew what Key was saying and exactly why, and obviously we are supposed to have forgotten this when he now kicks Collins while Labour have her down. Even a little kich at own goal there?

A little dirty, John – not so fucking cutey cute.
So, Dear Readers, slam up a big number of “thumbs down” but note John Key’s Achilles Heel, just as we noted the chink in Len’s amore.
You are still better than the alternatives, John, but now a little less preferred.
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March 14, 2014 6:22pm
nasska

Reid

The insufferable idiots who drool & wank over what their pretentious minds deem to be art tend to boil my piss. I once had the misfortune to be invited to a well off & distant relation’s abode. The clown had recently squandered untold of his ill gotten gains on a piece of crap put together by Ralph Hotere.

It consisted of a sheet of dark green mini corrugated iron with a few dribbles of paint running down it….that was it!

Good on old Ralph…..I hope he died a wealthy man. He sure had a knack of separating the punters from their loot.
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March 14, 2014 6:28pm
Reid

The insufferable idiots who drool & wank over what their pretentious minds deem to be art tend to boil my piss.

Yes. And the whole world joins in with them, nodding vigorously. I watch some Pawn Shop shows from Prime (I think) and its amazing what happens to the value of an item if some celebrity has touched it.

Morons are what morons do.
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March 14, 2014 6:43pm
Steve (North Shore)

Here it is Friday and the lunatics are out in full force. Full moon is not until Monday.
Go for it!!!
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March 14, 2014 6:54pm
nasska

Do you reckon that we should start slow & work up to a full moon madness Steve? 🙂
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March 14, 2014 6:59pm
tom hunter

Sorry about the monster post !

Don’t be Ed, I’m really enjoying reading this stuff. This is what the Net is all about – as opposed to ONE Network News.

One suggestion I’ve got is that you might consider posting this on the original MH370 thread? It would help pull it all together rather than the fractured nature of the GD, and given the level of interest I don’t think the thread would disappear.
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March 14, 2014 7:28pm
Judith

@Steve (North Shore) (4,242 comments) says:
March 14th, 2014 at 6:54 pm

A full moon on St Patrick’s Day – That’s going to be fun!
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March 14, 2014 7:45pm
Steve (North Shore)

nasska,
reckoning is for fools that don’t think positive. atm the madness is astounding, I don’t know how much more I can take.
I have a bed by the window.
Judith,
Will you start the fighting? just mention who pays for the booze, hahaha 🙂
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March 14, 2014 7:57pm
Judith

@ Steve (North Shore) (4,243 comments) says:
March 14th, 2014 at 7:57 pm

Are you kidding? I’m mostly of Scottish descent, but there’s a sprinkling of Irish in there as well – who’s paying for the drinks is a question I struggle with, even when I’m on my own!
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March 14, 2014 8:00pm
nasska

My wife suggested for my birthday I have a threesome.
I replied “Do I get to pick both girls?”
And then the fight started…
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March 14, 2014 8:01pm
griffith

A friend had the male fantasy come true.
His sig other and another lusty lass in his bed.
Poor sod overlooked that nature limits mans sexual capacity more than it does womans.
He spent most the night on the couch being tired and shagged out following a prolonged squawk. listing to the moans and slurpy noises coming from his own bedroom till dawn.
😆
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March 14, 2014 8:26pm
Steve (North Shore)

Boring tonight so I will repeat something.
Sad News

With all the sadness and trauma going on in the world at this

moment, it is worth reflecting on the death of a very important

person, which almost went unnoticed last week.

Larry LaPrise, the man that wrote “The Hokey Pokey” died

peacefully at the age of 93. The most traumatic part for his family

was getting him into the coffin. They put his left leg in. And then

the trouble started.

Shut up. You know it’s funny.
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March 14, 2014 8:32pm
nasska

“Doc, you’ve gotta help me! My wife just isn’t interested
in sleeping with me anymore! No passion, nothing! Haven’t
you got a pill or something I can give her?”

“Look, I can’t prescribe–”

“Doc, we’ve been friends for years. Have you ever seen me
this upset? I am desperate! I can’t think, I can’t
concentrate, my life is utterly falling apart! You’ve got
to help me, man!”

The doctor opens his desk drawer and removes a small bottle
of pills. “Okay, okay. Ordinarily, I wouldn’t do this. These
are experimental. The tests so far indicate that they’re
very powerful. Don’t give her more than one, understand?
Just one.”

“I don’t know, doc, she’s awfully cold.”

“One. No more. In her coffee. Okay?”

“Um… Okay.”

The guy expresses gratitude and leaves for home, where his
wife has dinner waiting. When dinner is finished, she goes
to the kitchen to bring dessert. The man hastily pulls the
pills from his pocket and drops one into his wife’s coffee.
He reflects for a moment, hesitates, then drops in a second
pill.

Then he begins to worry. The doctor did say they were
powerful. Then inspiration strikes — he drops one pill into
his own coffee. His wife returns with the shortcake and they
enjoy their dessert and coffee. Sure enough, a few minutes
after they finish, his wife shudders a little, sighs deeply
and heavily, and a strange look comes over her. In a
near-whisper he has never heard her use before, she says,
“I… need… a man…”

His eyes glitter as his hands tremble & he replies,
“Me… too…”
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March 14, 2014 8:45pm
Ed Snack

Latest update doesn’t add much on MH 370. As Cha notes above the US source is now claiming that the satellite logs (or wherever they are retrieving the handshake data from) include GPS coordinates, speed, and altitude data. so the should have a much smaller circle to search.

Vietnam has been reported as having drastically curtailed its search in the Gulf of Thailand/South China Sea area and says it has been asked by Malaysia to send what it can to the Malacca Strait/Andaman Sea area. Also, other assets are being deployed westwards.

So it seems pretty obvious that the US information is being taken seriously and MH 370 almost certainly hung a hard left following the loss of contact and headed out WNW roughly. Presumably the Phuket area radar trace is more believable than the Silver Island one further South in the Malacca Strait, the USS Kidd is heading for the Andaman Sea, and the search may extend out into the Indian Ocean.

The one thing we don’t yet have a handle on is if this is a “ghost fight” with all on board unconscious or dead, or some strange kind of hijack/pilot led takeover. The US seems fairly certain it is a controlled takeover. One could certainly tell something from the more detailed information they presumably now have. If the flight is on a single heading at a constant height since the turn around then a ghost is possible, if there’s and maneuvring at all then it is controlled and a takeover. We don’t yet know enough to decide. There’s also suggestions that the end of the SATCOM trace may be when the aircraft runs out of fuel or ditches, or it could be because the pilot finally decides to isolate the SATCOM system so the traces are stopped but the aircraft continues on. That isn’t able to be decided.

My guess is that it ditched, and I suppose I would incline to the active takeover if only because it does seem that the course across Malaysia/South Thailand was selected to minimize radar detection and isn’t something that would appear to be chosen to return to KL without instruments. But that could be sheer coincidence and I don’t have a good feel for either option.

Not sure if there is a scheduled press conference tonight, there probably is, and I may miss it as I have an early start tomorrow. If anyone wants to watch out for it and update ? Look for a general shift of the search westwards to indicate that their apparent inability to understand the US data notwithstanding, the Malaysian SAR command do see the compelling nature of the general indications pointing that ay.
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March 14, 2014 8:46pm
James Stephenson

Well if you thought that the Left had no integrity, about 90% of the global total has just died with Tony Benn. RIP, a great but consistently wrong man.
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March 14, 2014 8:48pm
mandk

@ James Stephenson,
Benn was a supreme sophist. He could argue brilliantly. But, as you say, he was consistently wrong.
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March 14, 2014 10:07pm
goldnkiwi

Does anyone know why if the cyclone is tracking down the west side of the island most of the warnings are for the east coast? I appreciate that it is the more populated side of the country, but still.
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March 14, 2014 10:23pm
goldnkiwi

Do not say that the left has no integrity so the right is chosen lol 😉
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March 14, 2014 10:32pm
griffith

http://www.metservice.com/maps-radar/rain-forecast/rain-forecast-3-day

Push play and watch the rain pile up on the east coast.
The wind and waves do the same.
East coast is exposed to the High winds. localized downbursts. Storm surge and large seas.
It is fortunate this one has gone just west enough for us to miss the worst weather at its center.
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March 14, 2014 10:40pm
Tauhei Notts

That Tony Benn?
Was he the original Lord Anthony Wedgwood-Benn?
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March 14, 2014 10:59pm
goldnkiwi

Thanks, I battened down the grandkids tramp etc at Kawhia this morning so hopefully we will get the rain not the wind so much.
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March 14, 2014 11:16pm
big bruv

I note that Tony Benn has passed away. Does he mean anything to me?, do I think he made any contribution to the betterment of life for us all?….well of course not. However, The next few days will show that the right have far more class that those of the left. We on the right will not hold demonstrations to celebrate his death, we will not write songs abusing his memory, we will not start riots because of something he said or did twenty plus years ago. No, we on the right show the family of Mr Benn the respect that they deserve.
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March 15, 2014 6:22am
UglyTruth

Two sources said an unidentified aircraft that investigators believe was Flight MH370 was following a route between navigational waypoints when it was last plotted on military radar off the country’s northwest coast.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-may-have-been-deliberately-diverted-to-andaman-islands-20140314-34sp1.html
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March 15, 2014 10:02am

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