Waikato seats

The Waikato Times reports:

The two Hamilton electorates – Hamilton East and Hamilton West – had in the past acted as “swing seats”, changing hands between Labour and National many times. David Bennett has been incumbent in Hamilton East since 2005, while fellow National MP Tim Macindoe has held Hamilton West since 2008.

Mr Macindoe comfortably saw off a challenge from Labour list MP Sue Moroney in the 2011 election, and a rematch looks likely.

Hamilton East is no longer a swing seat and I’m not sure Hamilton West is either.

In 2005 David Bennett won Hamilton East with a 5,298 majority. In 2008 it increased to 8,820 and in 2011 was 8,275. That’s not marginal or swinging.

Tim Macindoe won Hamilton West in 2008 with a 1,618 majority which is marginal. You normally lose votes when in Government, but his majority in 2011 increased to 4,418. I’d be surprised to see any change there.

Some electorates in the wider Waikato and surrounding regions could prove pivotal, particularly Rotorua, Taupo and East Coast, which had also been home to alternating Labour and National MPs in recent years.

Majorities are 7,357, 14,115 and 4,774 respectively. Also not very marginal.

However others, like Bay of Plenty, Waikato, Taranaki-King Country and Tauranga are seen as safe National seats.

Majorities of 17.760, 14,198, 15,089 and 17,264 respectively. Also Coromandel on 12,740.

The reality is that the Waikato Region is not a very competitive one in terms of electorates. National holds every single seat and is likely to continue to do so.