Getting overly excited over a Guardian story

The Herald reports:

Prime Minister John Key says the Government would throw its weight behind any bid by former Prime Minister Helen Clark for the top job at the United Nations in 2016, but said it would be a tough ask for her to secure the post.

Helen Clark, who heads the United Nations Development Programme, was tipped in Britain’s Guardian newspaper as a front-runner to take over from Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon when his term runs out in 2016.

The Guardian ran an interview with Helen Clark, in which she was asked if she was interested in the job.

She did not confirm it outright, but clearly hinted it was in her sights, saying: “There will be interest in whether the UN will have a first woman because they’re looking like the last bastions, as it were.”

Asked again if she would run, she said: “If there’s enough support for the style of leadership that I have, it will be interesting.”

Mr Key said he had not received any advice of her intentions, and it would be a hard job for her to get.

“It would be well and truly sought after and these things are deeply political. But she’s done a very good job as the administrator of the UNDP. We would back her, but whether or not she can actually get there, I don’t know.”

Regardless of how Clark has done at UNDP, I think it is highly unlikely she would be a viable candidate for the top job. This is for several reasons.

The first is the very strong convention that there is regional rotation based on continent.  We are seen as part of Western Europe, as we are part of that region for Security Council voting. But that doesn’t help us as most third world countries don’t want a Western European to head the UN.

Eastern Europe is the only region not to have supplied a Secretary General, and regional rotation is very important.

A further factor is that every other UN SG has not already been a UN official. The career path is usually from being a current Foreign Minister or diplomat. The exception was Kofi Annan.

Also a factor is that the host region has to unite behind a candidate for them to win. Would the EU unite behind Clark or one of their own?

In Clark’s favour is she is a woman, and many will say time for a female UN Secretary General. But history shows regional rotation is more important than gender to member states.

Another factor is the unofficial requirement to speak French, which Clark doesn’t do.

My pick is a bilingual woman from Eastern Europe is likely to be the next Secretary General.