Fairfax’s 2014 predictions

The Fairfax gallery team make 20 predictions for 2014:

1. National will get a lift in the polls early in the year as the economic news gets better.

2. John Key will reshuffle his Cabinet lineup in the first two months of 2014.

3. At least one of the Green MPs will step down before the general election.

4. Two of Labour’s “old guard” will go on the list to give themselves the option of quitting after the election without triggering a by-election.

Jones is one of them. I presume they mean list only. Not sure who the other will be.

5. Brendan Horan, Eric Roy and John Hayes will not be MPs by the end of the year.

6. Irrespective of the election result, David Cunliffe will stay on as Labour leader.

That’s a big call, and I would’t predict that.

7. The Genesis Energy sale will go ahead, but for the election campaign National will call it a day on the partial privatisation programme.

That’s not a prediction. National said some months ago there were no more planned.

8. Conservative leader Colin Craig will stand in the East Coast Bays seat, his party will get into Parliament but will not cross the 5 per cent threshold.

Agree they will make it.

9. The economy will start flagging late in 2014 as rising interest rates start to bite.

10. The brawl between Judith Collins and Steven Joyce over who will inherit John Key’s crown will heat up as the election approaches.

11. Mr Key will give the thumbs up to talks with all of National’s potential allies: ACT, the Conservatives, the Maori Party and UnitedFuture. But he will make it clear NZ First will be his last cab off the rank if he is in a position to form a Government.

Key may rule them out again, as he did in 2008 and 2011.

12. The Maori Party will win two seats at the election.

I said at least two. If they get 2% party vote they get a third seat.

13. Mr Key will visit the White House and host a high-profile return visit.

14. ACT will not get more than 1.5 per cent of the vote.

That high?

15. New Zealand’s push for a temporary seat on the United Nations Security Council will be successful.

I predicted the other way.

16. A senior member of David Cunliffe’s office will quit.

Statistically likely

17. Housing will be one of the most contentious themes of the year, prompting National to announce further measures to help low-income and first-home buyers.

18. There will be upsets in the seats of Napier, Mt Roskill, Te Tai Hauauru, Ohariu and Maungakiekie.

19. The election will be held in October.

20. National will form a Government with at least two other parties.

Another big call. I like that they are willing to make predictions. Would be fun if other gallery teams did the same, and one could judge them all at year end!