Scoring my 2013 predictions
On 24 December 2012 I made 20 predictions for 2013, emulating the annual Fairfax tradition. My predictions and how I scored them were:
- At least two state owned power companies will have successful partial floats. – 1 (MRP and Meridian floated)
- Tracey Martin will be elected/anointed Deputy Leader of NZ First. – 1 (occurred a couple of months ago)
- Holly Walker’s Lobbying Disclosure Bill will not be passed into law in 2013, even if amended. – 1 (killed off near unanimously)
- There will be at least three new Ministers by the end of 2013 (new being not Ministers today). – 1 (Nikki Kaye, Michael Woodhouse, Nick Smith)
- Louisa Wall’s marriage bill will pass into law by June 2013, with at least 75 votes at third reading. – 1 (77 votes in April)
- David Shearer will demote at least two front-benchers to the backbenches. -1 (Street and Mahuta in February)
- David Carter will be elected Speaker of the House, but it will not be a unanimous vote. -1 (Elected 62 to 52 over Mallard)
- Paul Foster-Bell will become an MP in 2013. – 1 (May 28)
- The 2013 census will see two new general seats and one new Maori seat. – 0 (only one general seat and no Maori seat)
- David Cunliffe will not be rehabilitated and remain off the front bench. – 0 (I could argue a half mark as he wasn’t rehabilitated, he was voted in by unions and members, not caucus)
- An MP will get engaged and a different one will get pregnant. – 1/2 (Holly Walker announced pregnancy in May, unaware of any engagement)
- Current or former Members of Parliament will contest both the Wellington and Auckland Mayoralties. – 0
- David Clark’s Mondayisation Bill will pass 61 votes to 60 at 3rd reading. – 1 (passed 61 – 60 on 17 April)
- During the year at least three National MPs will announce they will retire at the 2014 election. – 1 (I would score this higher if I could – eight retirements announced so far)
- Over the year, National will on average of all public polls, poll higher than Labour and Greens combined but not Labour, Greens and NZ First. – 1 (On averaged National 1% higher than Lab/Gre but 3% below Lab/Gre/NZF)
- Brendan Horan will not be an MP by the end of 2013. – 0 (here to stay!)
- The 2013 Budget will project a small surplus for 2014/15. – 1 ($75m is as small as it gets!)
- NZ will not win the election for the UN Security Council, as too many countries think we are part of Australia who have just got elected. – 1/2 (not decided until September 2014)
- Winston will get thrown out of the House by the new Speaker. – 0 (I thought he had been, but can’t find a reference to it)
- The thresholds for parliamentary representation will remain unchanged at 5% party vote or 1 electorate seat. – 1
So overall I score myself 14/20. Happy with that.
UPDATE: An MP did get engaged in 2013, but they also got unengaged later. However I still score that as a 1/2 so my score goes up to 14.5/20.