My 2014 predictions

Here’s my 20 political predictions for 2014:

1. Colin Craig will be a Member of Parliament by the end of 2014
2. The election will be held in October 2014
3. Genesis Energy will be sold by May 2014
4. There will be two new Ministers before the election
5. At least one electorate Labour MP will be successfully challenged for their party’s nomination (or will withdraw before the vote)
6. At least two more National MPs will announce they will retire before the election
7. Brendan Horan will not be an MP by the end of 2014
8. The 2014 Budget will project a surplus of between $100 million and $250 million for 2014/15.
9. NZ will not win the election for the UN Security Council
10. At least two Green MPs will be ranked outside the top 15 on the Green list
11. The Maori Party will have at least two MPs after the election
12. Len Brown will go
13. Hone Harawira will attend less than half the House sitting days in 2014
14. National will campaign on tax cuts and Labour on tax increases
15. Jamie Whyte will be elected the Leader of ACT and candidate for Epsom, but ACT will not make it back to Parliament
16. Peter Dunne will be re-elected MP for Ohariu
17. NZ First will have fewer MPs after the election, than they got in 2011
18. A prominent journalist will stand as a candidate for the Kim Dotcom Party
19. National will both gain and lose electorate seats at the election
20. After the 2014 election, Parliament will be at least 38% female, up from 34%