Union update for Labour vote
I understand that three of the six unions have now endorsed David Cunliffe for the Labour leadership, and in fact have asked delegates to rank Jones 2nd and Robertson 3rd.
The DWU were previously known to have endorsed Cunliffe. I understand RMTU have also. I do not know if the 3rd union is MUNZ or MWU – I have assumed MUNZ as they are stronger in Auckland.
The updated table based on vote assumptions (and they are assumptions) are:
| Round 1 | Cunliffe | Jones | Robertson | Union % | Cunliffe | Jones | Robertson |
| EPMU | 25% | 10% | 65% | 41.0% | 10.3% | 4.1% | 26.7% |
| SFWU | 55% | 15% | 30% | 24.8% | 13.6% | 3.7% | 7.4% |
| MWU | 40% | 20% | 40% | 17.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 6.8% |
| DWU | 70% | 15% | 15% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| RMTU | 70% | 15% | 15% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| MUNZ | 60% | 20% | 20% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Union Total | 42.4% | 14.0% | 43.6% | ||||
| Election Total | 8.5% | 2.8% | 8.7% | ||||
| Round 2 | Cunliffe | Jones | Robertson | Union % | Cunliffe | Jones | Robertson |
| EPMU | 28% | 72% | 41.0% | 11.4% | 29.6% | ||
| SFWU | 65% | 35% | 24.8% | 16.0% | 8.8% | ||
| MWU | 50% | 50% | 17.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | ||
| DWU | 82% | 18% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 1.4% | ||
| RMTU | 82% | 18% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 1.1% | ||
| MUNZ | 75% | 25% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | ||
| Union Total | 49.9% | 50.1% | |||||
| Election Total | 10.0% | 10.0% |
The EPMU has such greater voting strength that their (presumed) support for Robertson balances out the smaller unions support for Cunliffe. If Robertson does not in fact get most EPMU votes, then Cunliffe will win the union vote.
I’ve not heard reports of shifts in the caucus vote, apart from uncertainty over Huo. If so, then the members vote will be all important. I hope to have a stab at how that may go early next week.