August 21, 2013 4:00pm by David Farrar

Polls update

Have just done a belated issue of the monthly polling newsletter for July. The graph of projected seats is interesting.

The executive summary is:

July saw four political polls published in New Zealand – a Colmar Brunton, a reid Research and two Roy Morgan polls.

The average of the public polls has National 17% ahead of Labour – 2% more than in June. The seat projection is centre-right 63 seats, centre-left 55.

Kevin Rudd’s honeymoon in Australia has been short-lived and his approval rating has declined 20% in a month, and the Coalition lead by 4% in most polls indicating a possible 20 seat majority.

In the United States President Obama’s approval rating continues to decline, and his personal favourability is negative for the first time.

In the UK Labour’ leads over the Conservatives is shrinking and Labour leader Ed Miliband has very high disapproval ratings.

In Canada the opposition’s lead over the government has also shrunk, and the Conservatives are now forecast to win more seats than the Liberals.

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By coincidence July was a good month for the centre-right in all five countries!

Since July there has been a Roy Morgan which keeps up its normal volatility, and this morning a Fairfax Ispso poll. Fairfax found that 75% of NZers say they are worried about the GCSB law, yet National remains high on 48%.

To my mind, this shows the difference between opinion and intensity of opinion. Sure 75% say in response to a question they are concerned – but not enough to change how they vote.

The analogy I would use is free range eggs. Around 85% of Kiwis say they do not like battery hen farming and around 75% say they will happily pay more for eggs that are free range, not battery. However free range eggs make up around only 9% of sales! The lesson being people say they are concerned – but not enough to do anything about it.