Tobacco tax

The Herald reports:

The increase in tobacco tax in January may have pushed the smoking rate below 16 per cent, a survey suggests.

Released today to coincide with World Smokefree Day, the survey of more than 200 smokers found a 4.5 per cent reduction in smoking prevalence following the 11 per cent tax increase, said Dr Murray Laugesen.

“That equates to a 0.75 percentage point reduction in the [national adult] smoking prevalence which is currently 16.5 per cent. The tax rise could have brought it below 16 per cent.”

This doesn’t surprise me. Price will of course affect demand.

But a sample of 200 is very small. The margin of error is around 7%, so a 4.5% reduction is not statistically significant.