Latest poll

Fairfax released their latest Ipsos poll this morning. I’ve blogged it on Curiablog.

National is up 4% to 49% and Labour down 4% to 32%.

Tracy Watkins writes:

How long before Labour asks whether David Shearer is the solution or the problem? If the results of today’s Fairfax Media-Ipsos poll are a precursor to the next election, the news is all bad for Labour – and not just because the poll has it shedding support, though that is bad enough.

But because it reverses a trend that had Labour slowly clawing into contention. …

Mr Shearer may be morphing from Mr Invisible to something worse in voters’ eyes. Mr Negative. …

Labour MPs’ sights are not trained on Mr Shearer yet.

But there is always a tipping point. And if the trend continues, Labour MPs must be wondering what to do when they reach it.

Here’s why Shearer is probably safe. The caucus would happily replace Shearer with Robertson is the polls do not improve. He’s already in charge of all the important stuff such as the leader’s office, strategy, campaign etc. But their problem is that if Shearer goes, then the leadership goes to a full member vote – which would be a Robertson vs Cunliffe battle. Robertson would win the caucus 40%, Cunliffe the members 40%, so the unions would decide with their 20%.