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April 19, 2013 7:49am by David Farrar

Latest Poll

I’ve blogged at Curiablog the latest Roy Morgan poll, which projects Labour/Greens/Mana with 61 seats out of 121.

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Comment25

NZ Politics

Comments (25)

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hj

NZ First deserves it’s 0 seats as nobody knows what it stands for (unable to make gains on the Savings Working Group report).
1 2
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April 19, 2013 7:53am
Pete George

This poll isn’t flash for National, down to 40.5% (and Labour up to 35%).

It’s hard to know whether it strongly reinforces a worrying trend for the Government, or is a blip. More will be known when both One News and 3 news release their latest polls on Sunday.

But all this may be largely historic and irrelevant, as none of these polls will reflect reaction to the Labour Green NZ Power play.
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April 19, 2013 7:56am
iMP

National’s 3.5% drop…the dropping of the ball (complete lack of parliamentary leadership) over the Rainbow Labour Marriage Bill on behalf of part of its core constituency (traditional voters). Same poll drops happening to Tories in UK. Leaving the anti-bill 3rd Reading to Chester Borrows and Winston Peters????
9 2
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April 19, 2013 7:58am
joana

NZFirst has had the same 15 principles for a long time.
Maurice Williamson certainly won’t have helped the Nat cause. Being a bit casual about his degree won’t go unnoticed either.
It must have been a long time back for a computer science degree to have morphed into a Physics degree.. Time for him to go.
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April 19, 2013 7:59am
mandk

PG,
The polls to be published on Sunday are probably going to be a bit early to reflect any reaction to the mock-marriage legislation.
Leave it a month and you’ll see a marked reaction from former Nat diehards like me.
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April 19, 2013 8:09am
peterwn

Continues to be a very satisfactory result for National in mid-term. It would be worrying for National if it was down 10 seats.
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April 19, 2013 8:09am
hj

Given earlier opposition to NZ First you would think they could capitalise on this (unless they have done a deal with Shearer-Labour and the Norman-Greens)

John Carran, 2 April 1996
“Vehement opposition to immigration, particularly from Asian countries, in New Zealand from an ill-informed and xenophobic rabble persists despite overwhelming evidence that immigration will improve our long term economic prospects.
In 1988 The Institute of Policy Studies published detailed research by Jacques Poot, Ganesh Nana and Bryan Philpott on the effects of migration on the New Zealand economy. The research, which abstracted from the social and environmental impact of immigration, concluded that “…a significant migration inflow can be beneficial to the performance of the New Zealand economy and subsequent consumption and income levels.” The authors point out that this is in general agreement with Australian research on the economic consequences of immigration.
–
–
Of course there is more to life than attaining economic excellence. The social and environmental impact of immigration also needs to be considered. But here the reasons given for restricting immigration range from pathetic to extremely dodgy. Most of the accusations are barely disguised racist piffle backed by tenuous rumours and cloudy anecdotes. Winston Peters’ stirring of the masses has exposed the ignorance and racial biases of a small and distasteful section of New Zealand society. These people yearn for a cloistered, inhibited, white (with a bit of brown at the edges) dominated utopia fondly envisaged by racists and xenophobes everywhere.
”
http://www.gmi.co.nz/news/1021/opposition-to-immigration-why-let-the-arguments-get-in-the-way.aspx
Savings Working Group
January 2011
“The big adverse gap in productivity between New Zealand and other countries opened up from the 1970s to the early 1990s. The policy choice that increased immigration – given the number of employers increasingly unable to pay First-World wages to the existing population and all the capital requirements that increasing populations involve – looks likely to have worked almost directly against the adjustment New Zealand needed to make and it might have been better off with a lower rate of net immigration. This adjustment would have involved a lower real interest rate (and cost of capital) and a lower real exchange rate, meaning a more favourable environment for raising the low level of productive capital per worker and labour productivity. The low level of capital per worker is a striking symptom of New Zealand’s economic challenge.
”
http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/reviews-consultation/savingsworkinggroup/pdfs/swg-report-jan11.pdf

[Attention Radio One-Sided NZ]
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April 19, 2013 8:43am
hj

The whole political system needs a revamp as what we get to vote on is too general and there is a lot of buried policy which is there for the Delahunties Greenfly- Guytons etc.
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April 19, 2013 8:52am
Manolo

Labour lite is approaching the end of the road. Spineless Neville Key could harvest the fruits of his own timidity.

The unholy alliance of communist Luddites, socialist Labour and Stone Agers awaiting their turn to drive NZ bus and send it down the ravine of economic destruction.
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April 19, 2013 8:57am
hamnidaV2

Bye bye Tory scum.
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April 19, 2013 9:01am
hj

“The unholy alliance of communist Luddites, socialist Labour and Stone Agers”….. was listening to a technology correspondent on Radio One-Sided; he waxed lyrical about Moore’s Law…. it occured to me that all his technology (driverless cars) was about using energy… we are still stuck on the energy front…. energy return for energy invested.
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April 19, 2013 9:08am
slightlyrighty

Following the latest announcement re the nationalisation of power by an incoming left wing coalition, I would expect a huge swing back to the center right in the next poll.
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April 19, 2013 9:09am
hj

Bye bye Tory scum
………
one of the ideas that perplexed me as a youth was a lecturer telling me that “life is tough” (as in pull-finger)…
So why is life tough?: one of the keys must be the success of humanity within a background of environmental constraints. Whether by capitalism or another ‘ism we hit a wall… but the left (as yet) don’t recognise it.
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April 19, 2013 9:15am
iMP

Analysis of the latest Poll and a big shift in NZ politics. I am predicting

NZ’s first openly gay prime minister in 2014!

http://conzervative.wordpress.com/2013/04/19/shift-in-nz-politics-latest-political-poll-mid-april-2013/
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April 19, 2013 9:27am
hj

Political parties are trojan horses for land-lords and leftists.
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April 19, 2013 9:32am
Mark

Fortunately for the Nats it appears each time they fuckup (Key lying on GCSB) Labour come out with a huge own goal (Power policy) and the the Nats wobble back into the lead. We have a lot to be grateful to the idiots advising Shearer for 🙂
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April 19, 2013 9:35am
Chuck Bird

I see NZF 5% up 2%. This was before the vote on homosexual marriage and homosexual adoption with MPs from both political parties drunk with power.

I think there is a high likelihood that NZF will be higher in future polls as more people take the pledge not to vote for a party whose leader supported this anti family legislation.

My vote could possibly go to the Conservative Party but I will be not be keen to waste my vote so I will look at the polls closer the election.
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April 19, 2013 10:38am
krazykiwi

My respect for National and Key has diminished each and every month since they/he took office.

It will be a cold day in hell before they get my vote again.
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April 19, 2013 10:44am
smttc

So kk, assuming election day is fine amnd warm, I assume you just stay home and abstain. Or will your vote go to mad Winston or loony Colin? Fucking great government allies they would make.

NZ voters will simply have to decide to allow National to govern alone or take their chances with the now completely loony left.
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April 19, 2013 11:01am
cossackstomper

I worked for National in the last two Elections in polling booths. My family and I will not vote for them in the next election. They have made many mistakes ,and have forgotten their roots just like Clark did before her demise.
1) When National came into power they should have immediately adopted the Chester Burrows amendment on the Anti Smacking Bill (Key said we will just leave it and see how it goes) People were looking for a Change
2) This latest fiasco on the feel good Gay Marriage Bill we were told when they had Civil Unions that was all they wanted (yea right) Why are we changing the Social fabric of our Society to suit less than 3% of the Population? If the mad Muslim’s want to ban Christmas displays in shop windows will we do that next too!
A nation is judged by others on its values most values are based on Normality. Which ever way you try and Package Homosexual behaviour its not normal or natural. National has shown no leadership in this area at all. If its a Social Conscience vote it should have been done as a Referendum then the people have voted. I strongly object to List MPS being able to vote on a bill as important as this , as equals when they were never voted in by their constituents in the first place. List Mps should not be able to vote or have any bills drawn from the ballot box. The only party that has stood true on this Bill is NZF I’m sure they will get my vote and many other conservatives who feel totally let down by roll over John and the National Party
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April 19, 2013 1:58pm
Chuck Bird

@cossackstomper

Many thousands like me have pledged my vote will not go to a party whose leader supported this bill in a most undemocratic manner. If Colin Craig cannot get his polling up my vote will go to NZF. For all Winston’s faults it is important that NZ have another party long term that is not liberal. NZF might be the first party in NZ to last long term except for the Greens with an international following.

http://www.mymarriagepledge.org.nz/
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April 19, 2013 3:35pm
UpandComer

At Cossack Stomper and CrazyKiwi – have a look at the nats who voted ‘against’ the Marriage bill. There were a number, many more then on the left.

You shouldn’t vote solely on the basis of social policy, that’s a fallacy. National still reflect your views better then the other parties, and they’re doing the best job for the country. A vote for NZ First is a vote for Labour, period. A vote for the conservatives is a wasted vote, because they will not get the threshold as they just don’t chime with people in NZ, for better or for worse.
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April 19, 2013 5:33pm
Letterman

UpandComer: 18 months out, I’m happy to bide my time and see how the Conservative Party voting percentage responds. For my money, if they can hold 3.5% across a couple of polls out from the General Election – I wonder how many people might go “alright, I’m in – here’s hoping…………….”.
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April 19, 2013 5:43pm
Chuck Bird

“You shouldn’t vote solely on the basis of social policy”

Who are you to tell people what issues that should take in to account before they vote.

If John Key did not break his promises and was not so arrogant thinking he know better than the peasants I would not be voting for NZF or the Conservative Party.

I consider social policy very important as do the liberals. Would DPF vote for National if the re-criminalized sodomy?
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April 19, 2013 7:33pm
kiwigunner

The trends have been going this way for some time. We all know that governments lose elections rather than oppositions losing them. When you pit all the money on Key you have to hope that he has some substance or that he grows into the job. He quite clearly has not, rather the opposite. Here is hoping that the trend continues.
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April 19, 2013 8:05pm

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