February 11, 2013 2:00pm by David Farrar

Would the Tories mind losing?

Cameron’s political future and historic legacy are on the line. He has pledged to contest the next British general election in 2015 and his own Conservative party would never forgive him if he presided over the break-up of a United Kingdom comprising England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

On the contrary many Conservatives would love Scotland to leave the UK.

In 2010 The Conservatives got 1 seat out of 59 in Scotland. With Scotland they were 306 out of 650 – a minority. Without it they would be 305 out of 591 – a majority.

In October 1974 the Conservatives got 16 out of 71 in Scotland and Labour got 41. With Scotland Labour won on 319 out of 635. Without Scotland Labour would not have had a majority and the Conservatives may have been able to govern.

In February 1974 the Conservatives got 297 seats, Labour 301 out of 635. Without Scotland it would have been Conservatives 276, Labour 261 out of 564. The Conservatives would have been given first chance to govern.

In 1964 the Conservatives got 304 seats, Labour 317 out of 630. Without Scotland it would have been Conservatives 281, Labour 273 out of 559 and a Conservative Government.

Opinion polls suggest support for independence has stalled. The latest put it at 32 per cent and opposition at 47 per cent. But Cameron and politicians from other parties remain nervous.

If the economy was stronger, independence would have a better chance. But people want security when times are tough. Hence a change is unlikely.

Some Scottish friends have suggested to me the eventual shape of the UK will be as a Federation of four countries.