The Epsom poll

The Herald on Sunday reports:

Banks, copping heavy criticism over donations from Kim Dotcom and SkyCity listed as being anonymous from his 2010 mayoralty bid, has lost a great deal of support, according to the Herald on Sunday-Key Research survey.

Only 10 per cent of electors would vote for him now – down from 44.1 per cent at the election last November – and a National candidate would romp home. 

The poll results are no surprise, and reflect my gut feeling that Epsom voters will vote for a National candidate, no matter what.

I would point out though one historical fact. No poll ever done in Epsom has shown an ACT candidate winning the seat – and they did win in 2005, 2008 and 2011. Epsom voters understand the tactical advantage of doing so.

However that tactical advantage disappears when there is little possibility of getting 1.2% of the party vote and one or more List MPs.