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April 20, 2012 9:34pm by David Farrar

Roy Morgan Poll

I’ve blogged the latest Roy Morgan poll at Curiablog. Quite a change from the previous one.

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Comment14

NZ Politics
Polls

Comments (14)

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slightlyrighty

Is this a rouge poll, or was it the last one?
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April 20, 2012 9:53pm
metcalph

The last poll was rogue. It wasn’t the decline in National support that was suspicious but a rather dramatic rise in Green support.
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April 20, 2012 10:21pm
slijmbal

so rouge was not a colour then?
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April 20, 2012 10:39pm
davidp

This is excellent news. It’s interesting to see the parties of the left fighting it out for the racist vote… NZ First is the winner this time, with a large drop in Green support that must be due in large part to Norman’s bizarre xenophobic rants that still look second rate next to the real Peters deal.

A small Green representation in the Australian government coalition has been enough to wreck the Gillard government. Voters here will be horrified at the prospect of a Labour/Green/NZ First/Mana/Maori coalition of unpleasant political midgets.
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April 20, 2012 10:49pm
bringbackdemocracy

Roy Morgan polls would be more informative if they included the Conservative party.
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April 20, 2012 10:59pm
Fox

I couldn’t help but laugh when thinking of the following quote by Vernon Small in a recent Stuff article, after perusing the results of the latest poll: “With the Government on the ropes over issues from the pokies deal with SkyCity to Crafar farm sales and asset sales,…….”
If this is a Government on the ropes, then the Opposition must be lying on the floor outside the ring, being attended to by medical personnel.

Increasingly it seems that left-leaning journalists like Vernon are engaged in an exercise of wishful thinking, rather than properly and accurately analysing the current political landscape.

They are probably no less confounded by the latest poll, than they were by the complete lack of public interest in ‘Teagate’, having attempted to beat the issue up into the giant scandal it never was.
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April 20, 2012 11:33pm
MT_Tinman

bringbackdemocracy (2) Says:
April 20th, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Roy Morgan polls would be more informative if they included the Conservative party.

Who?
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April 20, 2012 11:49pm
Pete George

Some surprises and some results not so surprising.

National Party 49.5% (up 5.5%)
Labour 26.5% (down 4%)
Greens 12.5% (down 4.5%)
New Zealand First 6.5% (up 1.5%)
Maori Party 1.5% (unchanged)
Others 1.5% (up 1%)
Mana Party 1% (up 0.5%)
United Future 1% (up 0.5%)
ACT NZ 0% (down 0.5%)

I’m surprised National have bounced back that much. It may be a lucky spike going againbst a recent slightly downward trend.

Labour’s drop doesn’t surprise me, sustained negative politics and a non-prominent leader won’t be enthusing swing voters.

Greens drop back to earth is no surprise, the last poll spike seemed likely to be too much too quickly.

NZF seems to be still doing well with the “stuff it, there’s no one else worth voting for” vote.

I think TV3 have their next poll release tomorrow night, it will be interesting to see how that compares.
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April 21, 2012 7:13am
kiwi in america

PG
The answer is simple – Roy Morgan’s last poll was a rogue – it was so far out of line with TV1/CB and TV3/UMR. THeir latest corrects whatever sampling error they had. I’d expect TV3’s poll to show little change from their last poll despite the Wellington media elites spinning hard on Crafar and Sky City.
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April 21, 2012 8:39am
Elaycee

@DPF: Perhaps your own experience with polling can help answer this query (below):

I can’t understand why there has been such a major variation between polls – even allowing for a ‘margin of error’…

In this Poll, I see that a total of 928 calls were placed ‘at random’ and wonder whether it’s possible that the pollsters themselves could influence the results – if they dialled a prefix that concentrated calls in (say) a blue ribbon area, then it would be more likely that the results would favour one party over another. Conversely, if they used a prefix that called homes in, say a Labour area, then it would favour another. And if calls were placed in a ‘swing’ seat then perhaps more volatility in voting trends could be expected – even between polls.

So how are the telephone numbers called for such surveys, actually selected?

[DPF: Yes sample selection is important and can influence. Most pollsters use a random selection of nationwide numbers. What is more often an issue is if for some reason the response rate in some areas is lower than others]
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April 21, 2012 9:17am
Alan Wilkinson

The Morgan poll has a history of large variance which suggests its sampling is not the best.
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April 21, 2012 10:39am
big bruv

Tinny

Have you not heard of the Conservative party?, our very own version of the Republican religious right nutter element.

I am sure you will love them, they have some very special idea but basically if they ever have the balance of power you can expect to be told that you must live your life by the rules of the “good book”.

Imagine the fun we will all have then.
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April 21, 2012 10:40am
Shazzadude

“The Morgan poll has a history of large variance which suggests its sampling is not the best.”

I think it has a larger variance simply because it conducts a larger number of polls. They release a poll every fortnight, while TV1/TV3 have released just one each in the 5 months since the last election.
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April 21, 2012 11:39pm
krazykiwi

Most pollsters use a random selection of nationwide numbers.

Not one of my daughter’s uni friends have landlines in their flats, and I’m assuming that’s what is meant by ‘nationwide numbers’. If so, that possibly makes students an underrepresented demographic
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April 22, 2012 12:04am

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