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February 3, 2012 12:10pm by David Farrar

Is National now the underdog?

In my blog at Stuff, I look at the latest Roy Morgan poll, and ask if National is now the underdog?

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Comment16

NZ Politics
By the numbers
Polls
Stuff

Comments (16)

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samtheman

So it’s taken just over 2 months for approximately 1 in 16 National voters to realise they actually wanted Labour? I’ll never understand swing voters
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February 3, 2012 12:16pm
Richard29

We need to better understand voter turnout.

For example the Greens consistently polled around that 13% mark in polls in the lead up to the election but on the day they got just 11% – that has been the pattern for several elections.

The same is true for the Nats who were polling at 51-52% and ended up with 47%.

I would wager that most of that difference is not people swinging from one party to another (as pollsters often imply) but is a change as a result of turnout in different voter groups.
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February 3, 2012 12:39pm
Pete George

No, National is far from the underdog.

Parties like United Future are underdogs with the polsters actively discriminating against them – not even given as an option in a phone poll last week (don’t know if it was Roy Morgan or not).
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February 3, 2012 1:05pm
wreck1080

national barely squeaked in at the last election.

Surely they are now underdog? The left has just so many parties.
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February 3, 2012 1:16pm
flipper

Does it matter?

If Key/English et al do not introduce some really unpopular policies in the next 12-15 months they will be dog tucker in November 2014 because the economy will have deteriorated to the point where we will face a Euro/Greece/. Italy/ Spain type meldown.

Short term pain will produce long term gain .

Let’s start by:
1. Endorsing the current foreign investment stratgegy with reasonable rules (heh, when could land be put in suitcase?).
2. Dealing to the NZPPTA and NZEI by bring their salaries and bennies back into line with average New Zealander
3. Bringing top level government employees’ (they are not public servants!) salaries back in line with the US policy whereby no federal employee is paid more the the President or the Speaker .
4. Scrubbing the ability of local government mayors and councillors to delegate their responsibilities to ” officers”
5. Abolish the “corporate” model for all central and local government employees
6. Freeze all parliamentary, state and local government employee salaries and allowances at re-adjusted (lower) levels for the period to December 31, 2014

Will be fun to watch Labour’s weasel words….,…
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February 3, 2012 1:32pm
Mark

Looks ugly
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February 3, 2012 1:32pm
mudrunner

I have had several discussions that support the thought that National is dog tucker without showing some strong moral fibre. I do accept the last election was closer than most people have realised. Key is showing no sign of changing appeasement into strong action.

flipper is onto it. Even if that is done and more besides, unless Europe folds and lesson is really stark, a National lead Government is not here for third term.

I hate to seem media bashing, but their reaction to Crafar farms sale to China, including ignoring sales during Labour time vs the sale of the Wairarapa land to James is appalling. The National government third term is dog tucker at the moment.
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February 3, 2012 3:31pm
DJP6-25

Do Stuff allude to the political affiliations of all their contributors, or just DPF? Can we just assume all the rest of their contributors are socialists who mostly suppport Labour, or the Greens?

cheers

David Prosser
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February 3, 2012 3:35pm
aitkenmike

David Prosser: You could assume that, or you could do two seconds of ‘research’ and see that John Pagani’s column is TITLED ‘Left Leaning’ and has a statement about his labour and alliance links.
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February 3, 2012 3:53pm
jaba

I think National will be lucky to be Govt after the next election unless Shearer really fks up or his pack of nutjob MP’s stuff it up for him.
A reason is that Peter Dunne will be very lucky to survive yet again and the Maori Party will goneburger. The Mparty have lost 2 of their 5 seats in the past couple of years and both Sharples and Turia will retire in the next year or so. Their cupboard is bare.
The Nats will implement policies that many will dislike so they will lose seats leaving a mix of parties that will turn NZ into the land of the lost .. almost happened at the last election.
The Nats need ACT, or another center or center right party, to support them so it’s almost up to John Banks to show competence and the rejuvenation of his party.
I need a drink
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February 3, 2012 5:52pm
s.russell

I think it is a bit soon to be calling the result of the next election. But it is natural that the longer it stays in power the harder it is for a Government to keep winning.
Never-the-less, I think Richard29 is right about turnout: what nearly stuffed up National in November was the belief they were going to win hands down. That gave people the freedom to stay home and to indulge themselves with picking the Opposition they wanted.
And there is some justification that the best place to be going into an election is about 2 per cent behind – this motivates your supporters and focuses the minds of undecdided voters.
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February 3, 2012 6:48pm
thor42

I agree that the Nats are the underdogs.
What I am very frustrated about is the strong Greens poll ratings. This is in spite of so-called “manmade global warming” being shown to be BS. I’m wondering when that will start to be reflected in the Greens ratings.
God help the country if Winston holds the balance of power after the next election. I’m hoping that the Winston First poll ratings will drop away soon.
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February 3, 2012 7:19pm
The Scorned

ACT is, for all intents and purposes, dead…its Now just BO….(Banks Only).
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February 3, 2012 8:02pm
DJP6-25

aitkenmike 3:53. I live in Korea. I can’t access a hard copy of the Press. It’s good to see DPF is not the only contributor whose politics are labeled.

cheers

David Prosser
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February 3, 2012 11:11pm
Sublime

DJP6-25 – plus one!

DPF – valid points in your blog; but three years is a long time.

Bring on February 7.
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February 3, 2012 11:20pm
UpandComer

They are massive underdogs. To win they will have to poll something similar to the last election, which is a massive massive ask. It is ridiculous how easy it is for the Left to win in this country with MMP.
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February 4, 2012 12:39pm

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