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February 5, 2012 8:00am by Kokila Patel

General Debate 5 February 2012

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labours a joke

Waitangi Day…B. F. D.

“Controversy over asset sales and job cuts at Te Puni Kokiri, the Ministry of Maori Development, have raised tensions ahead of the annual event at Waitangi’s Te Tii Marae in the Bay of Islands.”

Mana Party leader Hone Harawira told NZ Newswire he hoped Mr Key got the message that Maori would not budge when it came to treaty obligations by the Crown or he would “have a fight on his hands”.
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February 5, 2012 8:07am
Keeping Stock

Why would Justice Ian Binnie be wanting to read Joe Karam’s books on the Bain case when there are books by authors without a vested interest such as Karam has? Is Justice Binnie’s choice of reading matter an indication that Bain’s chances of a payout have just got better?

http://keepingstock.blogspot.co.nz/2012/02/one-side-of-story.html
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February 5, 2012 8:07am
Yvette

Former MO backs oil firm [which he is paid by]
A former MP who looks set to return to Parliament says New Zealand would be “silly” to close the door on TAG Oil – the company that says there’s potential to build “thousands” of wells on the East Coast.

Aaron Gilmore, who is paid an annual royalty for consultancy work he did for TAG surrounding its operations in Taranaki before he became an MP in 2008, could return to Parliament from National’s list if Speaker Lockwood Smith retires this year.

TAG is involved in a joint-venture with fellow Canadian energy company, Apache Corp, which has identified 687,966 hectares of “conventional and unconventional targets”.

The proposed exploration area covers the East Coast, Poverty Bay and Hawke’s Bay.

Developers say they may need to rely on the controversial practice of fracking in their bid to recover “billions of barrels” of oil, sparking a growing outcry in the affected areas.

Describing New Zealand as “energy rich”, Gilmore told the Sunday Star-Times the developments could be in the country’s best interests.

– http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/6367870/Former-MP-backs-oil-firm

..incontrivable proof that our political leaders are as dumb as a sack of doorknobs…and are just selling us down the river..unthinking…
putting the pros and cons of drilling for oil to one side..
..and just focusing on the supposed benefits for new zealand/the mug-punters..
..can you just consider these stark facts..and weep..?
..as i reported yesterday…
….the progressive govt in ecuador..bemoaning the low oil royalties they were getting for their natural resources..
..have negotiated a new deal…
..where the oil companies now will pay them a royalty of 87%..
..that figure they bemoaned…?…13%…
…the figure ‘negotiated’ by the useless bastards who are our political ‘leaders’..?
..for the extraction of our natural resource/oil..?
..5%…
..whoar..!
..eh..?
..come on down gerry brownlee/john key…!
update:..but wait..!..there’s more…!..(as i/whoar reported back in 8/11..)
“..In 2010 New Zealand’s crude oil production was worth a staggering US$2,521,625,288 - - or (at current exchange rates) $2.97 billion New Zealand Dollars.
The governments tax take on that is $148 m –
– or roughly the same amount given away to oil companies as sweeteners like seismic mapping research…”

– http://whoar.co.nz/page/4/
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February 5, 2012 8:12am
Pete George

Peter Dunne explains the United Future position on asset sales:

UnitedFuture on Asset Sales

I see some are suggesting that UnitedFuture has abruptly changed its position on asset sales since the election, having previously been opposed to all such sales. This is simply not true.

(detailed explanation)

UnitedFuture’s confidence and supply agreement, negotiated with National after the election, confirms all these points and is therefore consistent in every regard with our pre-election policy. That is why UnitedFuture will support the Government’s plans to introduce a mixed-ownership model for the four energy companies and Air New Zealand.

Like him or not, Dunne maintains a consistent line, especially compared to the vocal opposition.
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February 5, 2012 8:13am
Manolo

Getting frisky in Jafaland: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10783539
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February 5, 2012 8:30am
Manolo

More PC crap. Do as told or else: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10783518
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February 5, 2012 8:33am
Other_Andy

Things will be getting interesting in the next few months

Apart from Egypt’s sectarian and political violence, Egypt’s economic crisis will be worsening over the next two months.
It is begging the IMF for a multi-billion dollar ‘loan’.
Without money to subsidise basic food items, Egypt will undoubtedly see more unrest and even worse violence.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NA24Ak02.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/poverty-matters/2012/jan/25/egypt-bread-freedom-social-justice?newsfeed=true

Things aren’t much better in Syria where Iranian and Hezbollah mercenaries are trying to prop up Assad’s regime. Syria has always supported Iran and its proxies in Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Iraq (Abu Qaqaa) and Iran is keen to return the favour.
However, the current regime is almost bankrupt and the groups fighting Assad aren’t exactly the ‘good guys’ either.
Either way, there will be more violence on the horizon.
When the embargo begins to bite in Iran, it will also mean less money for Assad, Hezbollah and Hamas. Hezbollah depends on weapons, money, training and protection from Syria and Iran. Hamas depends on weapons, money, training and protection from Iran and the new masters in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood.
When Iran runs out of money, so will Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/syrian-regime-importing-snipers-for-protests/story-e6frg6so-1226254330519

Time is running out. What will Syria, Egypt and Iran do to distract the population from its worsening political and economic situation? And who will support the Hamas and Hezbollah regimes?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/jordan/9047590/Hamas-leader-visits-Jordan-for-first-time-in-13-years.html
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February 5, 2012 8:36am
hj

Treasury economist. Population increase (80% of which is from outside NZ) has hurt us*

http://www.treasury.govt.nz/downloads/pdfs/mi-jarrett-comm.pdf

* good for the members of the 20 Corporates $6b (or so) asset Property Council good old boys.
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February 5, 2012 8:45am
fatnuts

Scott, yesterday you quoted “We know the true warming signal is currently suppressed by temporary weather events”.

Are you even open to the possibility that the CO2 model that predicted ‘the true warming signal’ is wrong?

Practicing the scientific method means always being open to new data.
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February 5, 2012 9:05am
Viking2

And for the envious and the poor and their supporters. Why you need to work harder and stop theiving from the wealthy.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/image.cfm?c_id=1&gal_objectid=10783521&gallery_id=123669#8570000

That includes you bereal.
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February 5, 2012 9:06am
Scott Chris

OMG ❗ Liechtenstein Buying Up New Zealand – Bought 10 Times What China Bought In Last 5 Years!!

“People from the landlocked principality of Liechtenstein had purchased 10 times more land than the Chinese – 2,144ha in the same period.”

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/6368089/Who-is-really-buying-New-Zealand
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February 5, 2012 9:06am
Nookin

PC brigade wins again.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10783518
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February 5, 2012 9:07am
Viking2

We are going to like this lady. Pretty boy Simon won’t but that’s ok.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10783495
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February 5, 2012 9:14am
Scott Chris

Fatnuts says:- “Are you even open to the possibility that the CO2 model that predicted ‘the true warming signal’ is wrong?”

Yes, there is always a small hope that the models are completely wrong, and that some unknown phenomenon hasn’t been factored in to the calculations.

Have you seen this simple graph which shows very clearly the effect of El Nino and La Nina have on the underlying warming trend?

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/hazards/2011/12/enso-global-temp-anomalies.png
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February 5, 2012 9:16am
Viking2

Urewera Terrorist Raid behavor all over again.
Oh Dear.

Never seen them do this to the Mongrel Mob or Black Power. Must be a Racist thing.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10783521
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February 5, 2012 9:17am
Viking2

Dotcom said he met Orewa community Constable Jason Homan the day before the raid. He said it was later discovered Homan secretly filmed the mansion to provide intelligence for the raid.

Now I think we had an issue with this shiot just last year didn’t we.

Judge should throw the case out of court.
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February 5, 2012 9:18am
fatnuts

Scott, there is experimental proof that CO2 models are wrong. You seem to be in denial about this.
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February 5, 2012 9:20am
peterwn

‘Keeping Stock’ – Re Justice Bionnie. I would have faith in his bs-o-meter. I would not worry too much about this. He would have all the ‘official’ material but would wish to take cognisance of a different point of views. Also by reading (or having a clerk read) the books would allay any perception of a ‘closed’ mind. By not requesting the other books he is closing off a possible avenue of criticism. Their authors need not be offended. The Police would have checked out any novel points raised in these books.
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February 5, 2012 9:21am
MT_Tinman

Nookin, it’s probably more that they expect Weepu to choke yet again and the bottle will end up broken on the floor – like most of Weepu’s “passes”.
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February 5, 2012 9:21am
Nookin

Keeping Stock @ 8.07

I was interested in your reaction to this news story because when I read the story (before reading your post) I took the a contrary view.

It is appropriate that the judge discounts the unresearched, hip shooting reactionary comments by the anti-Bain Brigade. If the judge wants to get a perception of the strength of the case against David Bain he just needs to read the Crown file, Crown evidence and submissions.

The Karam books were heralded as proof positive of Bain’s innocence. When I read them, I was totally unconvinced. Conclusions drawn by Karam did not seem to follow naturally from the meagre facts that he advanced. He was unable to substantiate many of his allegations. I couldn’t help thinking at the time “well, if that’s the best they can do…”.

I would not read a great deal into the judge’s request. He will make up his own mind on the totality of the material in front of him. I do not think that the Karam books are going to do a great deal for Bain’s case. I liken Karam’s logic to Ian Wishart’s theory that the cop killed the Crewes. Not the slightest evidence that he did so but the theory holds good because there is no proof that he did not
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February 5, 2012 9:21am
Elaycee

@Keeping Stock: Sounds like another orchestrated campaign has started – now Bain’s number 1 apologist Joe Karam is set to launch yet another book. But save your money – the second verse (and the third verse) will be the same as the first.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10783483

Coincidental timing? Sure – and if you believe that, I’ve got a real nice bridge for sale.
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February 5, 2012 9:22am
Yvette

La Leche League director Alison Stanton said the trouble wasn’t with Weepu bottle feeding but with the overall message.
…
Asked what was wrong with Weepu cuddling and feeding a baby, she said: “You’ve got the healthy eating message, exercise, breastfeeding, smoke-free environment, wearing safety belts and this is about making sure that we give consistent health messages.”

Weepu said he was trying to encourage non-smoking.
“I started doing the campaigns last year and wanted to be involved again because I think it’s doing something good for the community. I wanted to set a good example and make a better future for my children.”

Karen Guilliland, chief executive officer of the College of Midwives, said her organisation opposed the ad too. “We just figured that Piri Weepu was so loved that whatever he did would carry a huge weight.”

Yes, it would be sad to have yet more images of Maori, especially famed and respected male Maori, caught in the act of child abuse …
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February 5, 2012 9:22am
Viking2

NZ Storm Troopers.
Coming to a house near you.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10783521
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February 5, 2012 9:25am
Luc Hansen

Misrepresentation at its most mendacious:

From Elaycee

You should form a group with Luc – he has also been proven to tell porkies. His motto (his own words): “…start with an untruth and build upon it with more lies and distortions, confusing the audience with the volume of misinformation.” Remarkably similar to this quote from Josef Goebbels: ““The most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly – it must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over””

The remark that offended LAC was indeed made by my good self, but it was an empirical observation of Christopher Moncton’s advocacy technique.

It’s usually impossible to get past the first sentence without encountering misrepresentation or even outright lie.

No one here, despite the gross number of slanderous comments directed at me, has made a charge of misrepresentation to lying stick, simply because I try very hard to stick to facts.

And opinion are not, by definition, lies.

So if anyone knows this LAC character, do me a favor and kick him in the nuts for me.
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February 5, 2012 9:30am
Pete George

Regardless of the perceived PC-ness of Weepu with his baby on the bottle, there is a real issue of breast feeding rates.

There are genuine reasons why some mothers can’t breastfeed.

There are also issues of pressure of the system support that scare mothers into reverting to bottle feeding for fear of not giving their babies enough.

And some come down to simply lack of parental perseverance and will to do what is ultimately the preferred food source for babies. We are in an age of convenience – and commercialism – that many are soft targets for. I’m surprised we don’t have ‘happy bottles” mcmarketed yet.
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February 5, 2012 9:33am
Scott Chris

fatnuts – it helps matters if you post a link to back up your assertions. Just copy and paste the link with a space to separate it from the body of your text. (in case you didn’t know)
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February 5, 2012 9:34am
bhudson

V2,

We are going to like this lady. Pretty boy Simon won’t but that’s ok.

On the strength of what exactly? This one quip: “That would be a young man in a suit speaking, would it?”
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February 5, 2012 9:35am
cha

#Other_Andy

An illuminating piece from Harry’s place.

http://hurryupharry.org/2012/02/03/revolution-over-and-out/
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February 5, 2012 9:52am
Elaycee

Luc bleats: “So if anyone knows this LAC character, do me a favor and kick him in the nuts for me.”

Haha – your usual tactic surfaces again – the minute someone has a contrary view (or someone points out your lies / distortions / propaganda), you resort to either bad mouthing / name calling and now you even seek help from someone else to step in for you.

Firstly, this reference came from another thread (yesterday) when ross was telling porkies again about the wharfie remunerations. Second, you have finally admitted that you tell porkies – my very point all along. But you left out this part: “ross – You and Luc have as much credibility as Penny Bright – and her level is around the same as a three dollar note with a picture of Winston on one side. Zero. Nada, Nil. Zip. SFA.”

Boo ferkin hoo. Guess what, Luc? As soon as you stop telling lies, I’ll stop pointing them out.
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February 5, 2012 9:53am
Luc Hansen

fatnuts

The theory of anthropogenic global warming does not depend on models. It is based on the observed fact of warming and solid, conventional physics for explaining that warming as overwhelmingly caused by our emissions.

The models only present probabilities within bounded uncertainty. They have been demonstrably found wrong often, mainly buy underestimating future effects.

James Hansen’s latest paper uses the combination of observations and the paleoclimate record to deduce future sea level rise and climate sensitivity, amongst other aspects such as weather. Not a model in sight. It’s easy to find on his climate science website – just Google his name.
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February 5, 2012 9:54am
fatnuts

Scott, this has been posted a number of times, I’m surprised you are not familiar with it, given the regime change it represents.

The relevant quote is “Based on the first results from CLOUD, it is clear that the treatment of aerosol formation in climate models will need to be substantially revised, since all models assume that nucleation is caused by these vapours and water alone.”

Link to the citation:

http://press.web.cern.ch/press/PressReleases/Releases2011/downloads/CLOUD_SI_press-briefing_29JUL11.pdf
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February 5, 2012 10:00am
fatnuts

Luc, if you want to predict an outcome in the future, the only way you will do it is by developing a model. That’s how science works.
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February 5, 2012 10:01am
Monique Watson

TesticleTaser as a contraception

http://nowoccupy.blogspot.com/2012/02/howzat.html
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February 5, 2012 10:12am
Griff

always read the last paragraph fatnuts
its called the conclusion

“However, it is premature to conclude that cosmic
rays have a significant influence on climate until the additional nucleating vapours have been identified, their
ion enhancement measured, and the ultimate effects on clouds have been confirmed.”
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February 5, 2012 10:18am
Pete George

TesticleTaser as a contraception

New handbag accessory?
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February 5, 2012 10:20am
RightNow

Griff – that’s a boilerplate conclusion used by anyone who’s about to request additional funding.
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February 5, 2012 10:23am
Griff

This comes under the banner of

start with an untruth and build upon it with more lies and distortions, confusing the audience with the volume of misinformation
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February 5, 2012 10:26am
RightNow

Anybody know if any of the climate models account for increased evapotranspiration from the extra vegetation resulting from higher CO2 concentrations? In Trenberth’s energy budget diagram in 2009 he had evapotranspiration at 80w/m2.

Plant more trees!
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February 5, 2012 10:28am
fatnuts

I agree Griff. Whilst the current CO2 models are now effectively invalidated, we have yet to see a new hypothesis demonstrated and gain acceptance. More work to be done.

That’s the interesting bit, regimes shifts like the CLOUD findings lead to new, and better understanding of the way things work. That’s why I enjoy the science, finding a neutrino going faster than light, I was rooting for the non existance of the Higgs Boson, microbial life outside of earth (coming soon), M-theory etc…
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February 5, 2012 10:28am
Spam

The theory of anthropogenic global warming does not depend on models. It is based on the observed fact of warming and solid, conventional physics for explaining that warming as overwhelmingly caused by our emissions.

Not quite.

That CO2 traps IR and causes heating is solid, proven by theory and backed-up by experimentation. However, increased CO2, on its own, will not cause catastrophic global warming. That is proven by the same experiments (in fact its a logarithmic relation, and every successive doubling has less effect the previous one). The catastrophic scenarios are based on feedback loops, mostly involving water vapour. The theory is that more co2 means more heating which means more evaporation of water which means more heating and a massive runaway feedback loop.

THAT is most certainly not observed fact. Theory? Yes. Fact? No. In fact, observed water vapour is much less than predicted.
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February 5, 2012 10:33am
Griff

effectively invalidated?

comprehension problem again.

“However, it is premature to conclude that cosmic
rays have a significant influence on climate ”

Does not instantaneous invalidate known facts it just says more information needed.
This cloud experiment does not as previously claimed change YET any known climate models.
And it all so does not state that its effects will be positive or negative in the debate over agw

Higgs boson is still not found
Faster than light particles not yet proven
microbiological life outside earth no conclusive evidence yet
your science knowledge seems to be from the msm not actually based on known science
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February 5, 2012 10:43am
RightNow

A leaflet offering help for problem gamblers in Oz gives them a phone number to call for help – TAB Sportsbet…

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/problem-gamblers-help-line-bet-link-shock/story-fn7x8me2-1226262731101
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February 5, 2012 10:46am
fatnuts

Griff, you’re in denial. The hypothesis that CO2 models rely on for cloud formation has been proven invalid.

The other stuff I mentioned is emerging science, that’s why it’s interesting.
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February 5, 2012 10:48am
RightNow

BREAKING NEWS Key makes retreat from Te Tii Marae due to protesters … More soon (from Stuff)

Just scrap the fucking charade. Rich Maori are the ones fucking over poor Maori, and the NZ taxpayer is left to foot the bill.
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February 5, 2012 11:01am
Griff

catastrophic ?
Were did that come from spam
: the final event of the dramatic action especially of a tragedy
2
: a momentous tragic event ranging from extreme misfortune to utter overthrow or ruin
3
a : a violent and sudden change in a feature of the earth

Does not relate to agw
you are rousing emotive words to stir the pot
really you guys are a bunch of kids
trying to define the debate outside of the language of its proponents is a straw man argument at best and downright bullshit at worst
Also spam are you current on the state of permafrost. In Siberia there is a significant warming that could release large amounts of methane another greenhouse gas

fatnuts
go back to school
“However, it is premature to conclude that cosmic
rays have a significant influence on climate”
is the conclusion to your posted links from cern/ cloud
“The hypothesis that CO2 models rely on for cloud formation has been proven invalid”. Is not in any way concluded in your posted links Cloud merely states interesting results more information needed
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February 5, 2012 11:09am
labours a joke

“BREAKING NEWS Key makes retreat from Te Tii Marae due to protesters”

zzzzzzzzzz..
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February 5, 2012 11:09am
Brian Smaller

I agree RightNow. When the PM of New Zealand cannot get to the official ceremoney for the national holiday at the supposed birthplace of the nation, it is beyond a joke. This happens every year and to PMs from both parties. I think National would be onto a huge winner if they campaigned on removing references to the Treaty of Waitangi from every piece of legislation and relegating it to the history books. If there was a referendum I would lay money on the fact that 75% of people would say “scrap it”. The Maori aristocracy who control tens of billions of daollars of assets and who are hidden behind tribal trusts are incredibly wealthy – let them pay for their ‘people’ now.
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February 5, 2012 11:10am
reid

Key should have got himself a megaphone and directed it toward all the protesters until their ears hurt so much they were forced to stop their incessant screeching. Leaving is for whussies. BTW, this action was entirely predictable. Reading the news last week, anyone at all could work out this was definitely going to happen. So what sort of planning had Key done, to avoid looking like a little girl, which he just did, over this. Another example of how useless the Nats are at managing public image generally which is going to be fatal for them this term, if they don’t start doing it a lot, from here on in.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/6368974/Key-leaves-Waitangi-due-to-protesters
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February 5, 2012 11:12am
wat dabney

Luc,

“The theory of anthropogenic global warming does not depend on models. It is based on the observed fact of warming and solid, conventional physics for explaining that warming as overwhelmingly caused by our emissions.”

This is just plain wrong. After all these years I’m really not sure how anyone who takes even a passing interest in the subject could display such total ignorance; yet here you are demonstrating that you literally don’t know the first thing.

The AGW scare is based on the theory that the minimal direct influence of anthropogenic CO2 leads to positive runaway feedbacks of the overwhelming greenhouse gas, which is water vapour.
It is not based on “observed fact” (in fact it contradicts observed facts), nor is it “conventional physics.” It was a theory which has proved to be false, since the relentless warming that was promised – and which would certainly have occurred if the warming at the end of the last century was indeed “overwhelmingly caused by our emissions” – never happened: it stopped dead about 15 years ago.

In conclusion: notwithstanding your endless posting of AGW scare stories you clearly know less that the average tabloid reader about the subject. Time to stop flogging this dead horse, mate.
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February 5, 2012 11:22am
fatnuts

I can’t help you any more with your denial Griff, if you can accept experimental proof that disagrees with your ideology.

The entire basis of your disaster politics relies on the outcomes predicted by AWG CO2 models. We now know due to experimental proof that these models are invalid.

New hypothesis need to be developed.

The lead scientist of the CLOUD experiment is quoted “The theory will probably be able to account for somewhere between a half and the whole of the increase in the Earth’s temperature that we have seen in the last century”
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February 5, 2012 11:22am
Pete George

Sad for those who organise and try to create a special Waitangi event but it’s become a hopelessly case, overrun by rent-a-rant.

I hope Key makes a strong stand over this, the bitch spiral is out of control at Waitangi. If he doesn’t do something significant to deal with we have to do someting for ourselves.

Leave this nonsense to the nonsensicals, and create our own day for all kiwis.
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February 5, 2012 11:26am
reid

After Key had fled, Taurua Kingi said he could see the fear in Key’s eyes.

“I could see a bit of fear in his eyes because he’s never experienced this type of protest. It’s very vocal.”

Let’s hope Kingi’s just making this up because if its true it doesn’t auger well for Key’s performance in the House during Question Time with Peters. He’s never been faced with the sort of shit that Peters is going to be throwing all the time, and Liarbore will happily give him as many of their slots as he wants (I assume that’s allowed?) once he starts doing it.

Ever since Key joined politics he’s been treated like the prodigal son. I remember he turned up for a Regional party meeting and everyone stood up and clapped. It’s been like that for him since he started and in his first term he never faced anything challenging at all from a beaten and bruised opposition. Now its going to be different and I’m not sure he’s going to prove he’s got what it takes.

It’s one thing to stand like a shark in the market and read which way the numbers are flowing, but they don’t shout at you and poke holes in everything you’ve ever said which is how the political markets work. The way Key conducted himself in the first term what with not using the GFC excuse to cancel the tax cuts which made an albatross which he still wears and then everything else he did with his nancy compromise politics, does not indicate he’s got the guts to make the right calls and that’s fatal in NZ politics.

NZers like strong leaders and we don’t tolerate weak ones. Rowling was the last weak leader we had and look what happened to him. Key’s issue as we’ve discussed many times is he wants to be popular and often in politics the popular course is not the correct course, but that’s not going to save him this term, since this term, the opposition will paint even his milky-mild policy platform as being radical far right and they will use all the lefty memes with the breathless cooperation of the useless media and the polls will reflect that all this term.

His only hope is to deflect all that by turning from a “nice guy” into a hard-hitting defender of the conservative economic and social platforms that the Nats used to stand for, but I bet he doesn’t do that.
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February 5, 2012 11:31am
Pete George

Key’s strength has been there but mostly hidden behind the political curtain, but he has shown sufficient strength at Christchurch on Pike River.

This is an occasion where he needs to show very public strength, or Waitangi Day is doomed as any sort of universally supported event.
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February 5, 2012 11:39am
RightNow

Waitangi Day takes (another) arrow to the knee. Key would do well to take the rest of the long weekend off and go golfing instead of showing up tomorrow.
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February 5, 2012 11:42am
Scott Chris

Fatnuts – thanks for that link. What CERN are talking about is refinement of the model, so that the uncertainty that *is already accounted for* can be reduced. This passage from your link sums up the situation:

➡ “However,  the  physical  mechanisms  of  nucleation  are  not  understood,  so  global  models  have  been  based  on  theoretical  calculations  or  have  been  adjusted  to  match  observations.   CLOUD  aims  to understand  the  nucleation  process  and  therefore  provide  reliable  aerosol  physics  to  reduce  the uncertainty  in  climate  forcings  and  projections.”

In other words, algorithms modeling *observed* aerosol formation are an intrinsic part of climate models but what is not fully understood is the actual mechanism that creates these particles. For instance, scientists know that in periods of solar maximum radiation, more aerosol particles are formed, so they simply plonk this data into their models without understanding exactly why the aerosols are formed.

That’s all.
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February 5, 2012 11:44am
Griff

“The lead scientist of the CLOUD experiment is quoted “The theory will probably be able to account for somewhere between a half and the whole of the increase in the Earth’s temperature that we have seen in the last century”

Link needed fat-nuts
msm spin is not science they are notorious for miss quotes or out of context

PROBABLY=hypothesis= GUESS

BASIC EDUCATION IN SCIENCE METHOD
Scientists start with observations and then make a hypothesis (a guess), and then the fun begins. They must then prove their hypothesis with trials and tests that show why their data and results are correct. They must use controls, which are quantitative (based on values and figures, not emotions). Science needs both ideas (the hypothesis) and facts (the quantitative results) to move forward. Scientists can then examine their data and develop newer ideas. This process will lead to more observation and refinement of hypotheses.
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February 5, 2012 11:44am
Luc Hansen

fatnuts

That lead scientist has been promoting this as a hobby horse for a long time. He has a theory looking for convenient facts to fit.

He even closes his eyes to the fact that the underlying warming trend continued to rise while cosmic rays have been relatively constant.

To then try to say cosmic rays have this huge influence is simply the triumph of self-delusion over hard facts.

wat

Greenhouse effect

Arrhenius developed a theory to explain the ice ages, and in 1896 he was the first scientist to speculate that changes in the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could substantially alter the surface temperature through the greenhouse effect.[4]

1896, wat, not a model in sight.

And you can find this on James Hansen’s website:

2011

July 8: Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change: Revised paper for Milankovitch volume.

(I need a tutorial on how to post a link to a pdf.)

Not a model in sight, again.
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February 5, 2012 11:51am
Yvette

Labour leader David Shearer will also visit Te Tii marae this morning.

Labour said the crux of the Election – the most vital choice – was assets sales.
But they failed to simply ask how Key would sell up 49% of each.
Totally reorganise SOEs and the law covering them – including Waitangi clauses?

See what their reception is this morning.
Will they receive the same reception as Key, for their ignorance?
Or are the protesters so bloody ignorant they won’t see that either.
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February 5, 2012 11:56am
wat dabney

Luc,

You rather seem to have missed the point which is that the AGW theory is not, as you seem to imagine, based on “observed facts” or “conventional physics.”

Whether or not the theory is implemented in a computer model is irrelevant. What matters is whether it is correct or not, and all your blinkered denialism doesn’t change the fact that it has been proven false, since it is completely contradicted by the evidence.
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February 5, 2012 12:08pm
fatnuts

Scott, the relevant term is “substantially revised” in the context that CLOUD were directed not to interpret results, presumably due to political correctness.

Griff, that quote is expressed as an opinion, not a finding. If you want to practise scientific method, then you cannot remain in denial over the CLOUD findings.

Luc, results so far from CLOUD support that he is more right than wrong. Definative results are a matter of time away.
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February 5, 2012 12:11pm
Luc Hansen

notwithstanding your endless posting of AGW scare stories you clearly know less that the average tabloid reader about the subject.

Wat,

My books on climate change, or books I have read on that topic:

The Politics of Climate Change, Anthony Giddens

Revenge of Gaia, James Lovelock

Climate Wars, Gwynne Dyer

The Future History of the Arctic, Charlles Emmerson

Dire Predictions, Michael Mann

Climate Change 101, Andy Reisinger

The Climate Fix, Roger Pielke Jr

Suzuki’s Green Guide, David Suzuki

Climate change: picturing the science, Gavin Schmidt and Joshua Wolfe

Climate Capitalism, Lovins and Cohen

Natural Capitalism, Lovins etc

The Case for a Carbon Tax, She-Ling Hsu

Climate Change Denial, John Cook

Storms of My Grandchildren, James E Hansen

The Weathermakers, Tim Flannery

The Clean Industrial Revolution, Ben McNeil

Climate Change, CSIRO publication.

The Price of Civilisation, Jeffrey Sachs (Climate change mentioned although the primary focus is elsewhere)

And others I can’t track down right now.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

So I bow to your superior knowledge.

Clearly the average tabloid reader (were you studying your reflection when you typed that?) is many times over better informed than myself.
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February 5, 2012 12:12pm
RightNow

Luc, “I need a tutorial on how to post a link to a pdf” is it this?
http://arxiv.org/vc/arxiv/papers/1105/1105.0968v2.pdf

Just copy and paste like usual
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February 5, 2012 12:14pm
Griff

wat dabney
completely contradicted by the evidence.
Were
the last decade is the warmest on record
the previous the next warmest
do you dispute these facts
show proof
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February 5, 2012 12:14pm
RF

Many years ago whilst on a school trip at our local museum I was shown a pre 1860s Map of New Zealand. In a number of areas mainly in the North Island there were warnings.. “beware of savages”.

After watching the crap a Waitangi we sure have not progressed much since those times. Aussie looks better every day.
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February 5, 2012 12:15pm
wat dabney

Luc,

If you actually had the faintest grasp of the issue you would not have come out with the howler that “The theory of anthropogenic global warming does not depend on models. It is based on the observed fact of warming and solid, conventional physics for explaining that warming as overwhelmingly caused by our emissions.”

Sorry, but that is just a laughable. As the saying goes, it’s not even wrong.
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February 5, 2012 12:17pm
Manolo

No doubt the spineless Key will show the other cheek asking to be slapped again.
Time for Labour lite to wake up, confront and dismiss the racists and move forward with its policies.

Enough of this ridiculous pandering to Stone Age tribes.
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February 5, 2012 12:17pm
RightNow

Luc, I note in that paper they state that a temp rise of 2 deg C above pre-industrial levels would still be too high and that CO2 levels need to be reverted to 350ppm.
Have they considered planting more trees instead?
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February 5, 2012 12:18pm
wat dabney

Griff,

In English?
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February 5, 2012 12:19pm
reid

Key’s strength has been there but mostly hidden behind the political curtain, but he has shown sufficient strength at Christchurch on Pike River.

I don’t agree Pete, all he had to do with those two events is show sufficient concern right from the very start (check) and not do anything completely incompetent (check).

Politicians love natural disasters as it gives them a chance to pretend they know what they’re doing whereas really what is happening is the agencies responsible are doing exactly what they’d always planned and trained for and the PM and other politicians are just there getting in front of the cameras and not getting in the way, but they’re not actually making the agencies do anything they weren’t already going to do.

This happens the world over and the only time it goes wrong is when you get an idiot like Bush who failed to respond to Katrina.

So no, to me, this wasn’t a test of Key’s leadership, at all. Of course the fact is the public do think that politicians do actually make a difference is why they’re called useful idiots, but that false perception on the public’s part doesn’t make the reality of it any different unless you care to argue the ‘perception is reality’ argument but even that still doesn’t make it a real actual true test of leadership.
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February 5, 2012 12:19pm
RightNow

Griff
“the last decade is the warmest on record
the previous the next warmest”

Hey, when I was 30 my last decade was my tallest, the previous my next tallest. Do you think that means I was still growing?
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February 5, 2012 12:19pm
bereal

i see the pathological cophater and Dotcom apologist (viking2) is straight out of the blocks again today.

Thanks for the links V2.
i was paticulary impressed by photo 12/15.
You know, the one that showed Wayne Tempero indicating where
armed police stood during a raid on Kim Dotcoms mansion. (if thats not conclusive proof of police brutality
nothing is.)

Wayne Tempero would seem to be the type of bodyguard you need like you need a hole in the head.

Why would you bother having a panic room to hide in when your bodyguard (after first saying Dotcom was
not at home) then leads the police to show them where it’s hidden.

i thought that is was also damming evidence of police brutality that some police were wearing a bandana,
known as a durag, popular in US street culture. (that proves it for sure, effing bandanas) Some had pants on too.
And nannies were ‘rousted’ from their bed at gun point.
Also the helicopter blades were ‘screaming’
And it was a ‘home invation by NZ police’ said MISTER Tempero. (who is now facing firearms charges)

Viking2 would be proud of the tenor used by the fuckwits who wrote todays article in the HOS.
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February 5, 2012 12:20pm
Pete George

Reid – I agree that the ongoing Waitangi farce is a much bigger test of leadership. Muddling means more mayhem.
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February 5, 2012 12:24pm
reid

See the headline on the Stuff front page now reads: “I saw fear in his eyes.”

Yep, the good ole MSM. We just report the news as it happens, we just put the facts before the people impartially without fear or favour and leave it to the public to make up their minds. That’s what journalists do. It’s part of our ethics. Of course we don’t spin anything, ever.

From the video it all looked pretty mild. Why Key left is beyond me.
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February 5, 2012 12:31pm
Griff

fuck me thick nuts you really can not comprehend can you

“However, it is premature to conclude that cosmic
rays have a significant influence on climate”
are the conclusion from your of quoted link

“then you cannot remain in denial over the CLOUD findings”
who is in denial here ?

say this in a low and slow monotone
Dhuuh ahhh Griff must be right cause he did not make things up he read understood and posted the conclusions of my link
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February 5, 2012 12:34pm
Griff

Hey, when I was 30 my last decade was my tallest, the previous my next tallest. Do you think that means I was still growing?

go carefully measure your self
you will find that you have shrunk since your twenties
better yet measure your self in the morning do a whole day of walking and measure yourself again
gee you loose height as the day progresses
wot the hell has this got to do with climate change?
nothing as has your original statement
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February 5, 2012 12:42pm
bereal

Speaking of fuckwits.

Anybody else getting a bit tired of the continuous, never ending, pointless bickering, waged daily
by the same usual suspects over climate change ?

(thats sure to make me a few more friends on Kiwiblog)
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February 5, 2012 12:43pm
Paulus

The Waitangi Fiasco
The Media got what it worked very hard for at least the last two weeks to get.
Some of the so called media got jossled by the protesters.
Not hard enough obviously as they are not in hospital.
Looking today’s SST you can see why the rioters get stroppy – just as advocated by the SST at least, and others like TV3.
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February 5, 2012 12:44pm
Other_Andy

Russian scientist predicts cooling period starting around 2014

Bicentennial Decrease of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to Unbalanced Thermal Budget of the Earth and the Little Ice Age

After the maximum of solar cycle 24, from approximately 2014 we can expect the start of the next bicentennial cycle of deep cooling with a Little Ice Age in 2055 plus or minus 11. Thus, long-term variations of TSI (with account for their direct and secondary, based on feedback effects, influence) are the main fundamental cause of climate changes since variations of the Earth climate is mainly determined by a long-term imbalance between the energy of solar radiation entering the upper layers of the Earth’s atmosphere and the total energy emitted from the Earth back to space.

http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/apr/article/view/14754

Habibullo Ismailovich Abdussamatov is the supervisor of the Astrometria project of the Russian section of the International Space Station and the head of Space research laboratory at the Saint Petersburg-based Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
He is a global warming skeptic (Not one of the chosen 77).
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February 5, 2012 12:45pm
RightNow

Griff take a few days to think about it. You’re having a comprehension failure
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February 5, 2012 12:47pm
Keeping Stock

No doubt the spineless Key will show the other cheek asking to be slapped again.

Thus spake the fearless keyboard warrior known as Manolo, from the comfort of his home, and the anonymity of a nom-de-plume…
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February 5, 2012 12:48pm
fatnuts

Griff, I’ll repeat again; the entire basis of your disaster politics “needs to be substantially revised”.

Revised to what is now the question, and the subject of the quote, that you seem to misunderstand.
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February 5, 2012 12:48pm
fatnuts

Bereal, it’s not mandatory reading. And isn’t “endless, pointless etc..” the description of the majority in The GD thread?
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February 5, 2012 12:50pm
Alan Wilkinson

luc, it doesn’t matter how many books you have read (and most of that list I recognised were written by raving climate alarmists) just look at the thermometer:
drroyspencer.com/2012/02/uah-global-temperature-update-for-january-2012-0-09-deg-c/

Not very frightening, is it? Nor is the sea level:
climate4you.com/images/UnivColorado%20MeanSeaLevelSince1992%20With1yrRunningAverage.gif

Facts always trump theory.
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February 5, 2012 12:51pm
reid

This is an unbelievable visualisation of the Japanese earthquake data over the whole of 2011.

It’s unbelievable what happens in March.

It shows for about the first six minutes the broad locations on a large scale topographic but you watch what happens in March, it absolutely explodes.

Then it shows the same data in various views: total numbers, magnitudes, epicenters, the whole works.

Apart from the earthquake interest, it’s one of the best uses of data visualisation techniques I’ve ever seen and anyone who works in that field or has an interest in that field should check this out just for that alone.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKp5cA2sM28&feature=player_embedded
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February 5, 2012 12:54pm
flipper

Oh dear……
Chrissie the Wussie, Luc et al are raving again. They obviolusly believe the psuedo-scientific crap that has been thoroughly discredited by real scientists. But then they also probably rely upon Radio Labour, TV One and TV 3,m Fairfax (and their financial interest in an AGW/NGO publication) for their information. Pity. But it is no different in the UK (but the message in New Zealand is similar) where the Beeb Beeb Ceeb continues to spout rubbish, causing my colleague in the UK, Ruper Wyndham, to write to the BBc’s Director General, thus:

31 January 2012.

Mr. Mark Thompson
Director General
BBC White City Media Centre
201 Wood Lane
London W12 7TQ.

Dear Mr. Thompson

Editorial Standards

At the conclusion of his forecast two or three weeks ago, a BBC weatherman announced that 2011 had now been declared to have been the second warmest year since records began. Whose records and the source of this declaration were not disclosed. As to the latter, one presumes it was the usual brace of culprits in East Anglia and Exeter. More recently, in the last few days, we have had the following:

The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years. The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century. Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.

This report was published by The Mail on Sunday. I do not recall seeing/hearing any mention of it on the BBC.

If it was aired by the Corporation, an interesting question arises, to wit: “How can these two reports be reconciled?”

If it was not, a different question arises, namely: “How does the BBC reconcile the omission with its much heralded claim to impartiality in its reporting of so-termed ‘climate change’?”

These two reports are mutually antagonistic. They cannot both be right. Although it is widely recognised that, under your stewardship, the Corporation routinely ignores its own Editorial Standards, one of those standards nevertheless requires reports to be accurate. Taken together what these two examples confirm is that the BBC is either:

• biased or
• inaccurate or
• quite possibly both.

I would be glad to have this letter treated as a formal complaint.

Yours sincerely

R.C.E. Wyndham

Cc: As the spirit moves
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February 5, 2012 12:54pm
Manolo

How come a small number of rabid protesters can scare the hell out of the Prime Minister? Yes, he ought to be protected at all costs, but why didn’t the police act more decisively?

Key and National are not only prisoners of the racists, but rapidly becoming a laughing stock for their cowardice.
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February 5, 2012 1:08pm
EverlastingFire

Key – A spineless coward afraid to face down the racists.
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February 5, 2012 1:11pm
tom hunter

Speaking of theories that don’t match observable reality, yet are still passionately embraced, I took a closer look at one of the links provided by Other_Andy above. The title of the piece was in the link and could be read in his post, but I think it should be pulled out and bolded, plus who it’s from:

Where’s the ‘bread, freedom and social justice’ a year after Egypt’s revolution?

The Guardian

It really is one of those moments where the crying could either come from ROFLMAO or from despair. One can just imagine Guardian journalists, editors, and readers clasping their hands together with anguished looks on the faces as they ask Why? Why? What happened to Egypt?

There’s no longer any point in asking how they could be this stupid, even it does seem to be beyond belief.

They’re morons. Complete, total, utter fucking morons deluded by the rock-solid certainty that they’re smartest, most compassionate people in the room. They’ll learn nothing from this of course, no more than they did from 1917, 1949 or 1975.
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February 5, 2012 1:13pm
Griff

disaster politics
Huh I thought we were discussing science
“Based on the first results from CLOUD, it is clear that the treatment of aerosol formation in
climate models will need to be substantially revised, since all models assume that nucleation is caused by
these vapours and water alone. It is now urgent to identify the additional nucleating vapours, and whether
their sources are mainly natural or from human activities.”

you have quoted half a sentence told you comprehension is not your thing

Gee funny how if you put it in context it does clearly not mean wot you say it does
as I have previous stated you have not disproved climate change
you have just pointed to a small area that needs and is receiving more research
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February 5, 2012 1:13pm
bhudson

Luc @12;12,

Your reading list is the climate change equivalent of reading a number of Bibles from different Christian denominations and claiming that it proves that atheism is wrong.
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February 5, 2012 1:15pm
reid

Stuff headline now reads: “Key: I wasn’t scared.”

Yes, we know that, Stuff. We know that Kingi was making it up, we always knew that.

But in order to create breathless sensation on the front page top news item on your worthless website, you thought you’d pretend it did happen, so now you print Key’s response to the “have you stopped beating your wife” question which you always knew wasn’t true and which you deliberately setup knowing Key probably would respond as he has. You created news, in other words. You didn’t just report it.

If anyone from Stuff reads this, tell your sub-editor in charge of those headlines today that their job is to report news, not make it, and don’t let them argue that they were reporting it, because that headline “I saw fear in his eyes” was changed from the more neutral one which initially led that story, so they did it on purpose which makes them mere propagandists. Tell them that, would you please. Cheers.
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February 5, 2012 1:17pm
wat dabney

bereal,

“Why would you bother having a panic room to hide in when your bodyguard (after first saying Dotcom was
not at home) then leads the police to show them where it’s hidden.”

Because the claim is that these armed home invaders initially didn’t identify themselves as police, and then proceeded to kick down (unlocked) doors and enter with their M4 automatic weapons. I’d think a safe room would be the obvious place to retreat to in such circumstances, for anybody.

The police were simply tasked with picking up a fat computer nerd. Yet rather than sending a a car with a couple of uniformed officers to ring the front doorbell they stormed the house like it was Bin Laden’s compound. I mean, what did they think was going to happen? “Look out, he’s got a command prompt!”

There is legitimate concern in this overkill and paramilitary-style policing.

“ i thought that is was also damming evidence of police brutality that some police were wearing a bandana,
known as a durag, popular in US street culture. ”

The full quotation being: “He said the raid featured “cowboy” police officers wearing T-shirts, jeans and even a fitted bandana known as a durag, popular in US street culture.”

I don’t think anyone is claiming that this is evidence of brutality but instead revealing of a very peculiar attitude and mentality. I mean, what sort of sad-act wannabe would you have to be to dress up like you’re taking down gangsters in the Projects? Not only is it desperately sad and pathetic but also suggestive of a very low calibre of officer. Again, something of legitimate public concern. So we’re asking for rather more professionalism and maturity from the police, and a bit less fellating the FBI.
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February 5, 2012 1:21pm
Brian Smaller

@Everlasting FIre – I disagree. I wouldn’t waste my time trying to shout down a bunch of inbred ingrates with megaphones. Why shoudl Key. He has better things to do with his time – like spending the day with his family having a barbie and a few beers. Waitangi Day celebrations are a joke and a complet ewaste of time and money. You don’t need to be Nostradamus to predict how it goes year after year.
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February 5, 2012 1:21pm
bereal

Manolo
i’m not sure that the hell was scared out of J K or that he is a coward but the rest of your 1.08 is spot on the money.
It stood out like dogs balls for all to see that there could be a bit of trouble. This was a police fail.

When a bunch of no hoping losers like that can prevail it just beggars belief.

i get it that police don’t want to be seen as over reacting but, to allow a hand full of fat ignorant dole bludgers
to run the show and shit on law and order is not a good look.

They could have done better.
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February 5, 2012 1:26pm
wat dabney

Luc,

This is the sort of thing we mean when we say that the AGW theory has been proved wrong. The alarming predictions that were made, and which follow from the theory, simply failed.

“We check the main predictions of the climate models against the best and latest data. Fortunately the climate models got all their major predictions wrong. Why? Every serious skeptical scientist has been consistently saying essentially the same thing for over 20 years, yet most people have never heard the message — here it is, put simply enough for any lay reader willing to pay attention.”

http://joannenova.com.au/2012/01/dr-david-evans-the-skeptics-case/
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February 5, 2012 1:30pm
cha

I mean, what sort of sad-act wannabe would you have to be to dress up like you’re taking down gangsters in the Projects?

It seems the Miami model has arrived.

http://crimethinc.com/movies/miamimodel.html
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February 5, 2012 1:30pm
fatnuts

Griff, I’m not arguening against climate change. I’m stating that CERN have experimental evidence that current CO2 models cannot be relied upon.

And it’s not a ‘small’ area, it’s one requireing ‘substantial revision’.

The revision requires new research, to develop a new hypothesis for cloud formation and the development of new climate models. This may or may not be dominated by human acivities. Which is why CERN are being so conservative in the presentation of their results.
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February 5, 2012 1:31pm
Scott Chris

I’ll post this again. A number of you don’t appear to know the difference between weather and climate, just as you don’t appear to know what occurs when an *underlying trend* is overlapped by a number of cycles:

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/hazards/2011/12/enso-global-temp-anomalies.png

Reminder; we are emerging from a particularly deep solar minimum and are currently in a La Nina phase of the weather cycle.
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February 5, 2012 1:32pm
RightNow

I’ll explain it for you Griff, are you hung over today or something?

Last decade is warmest on record – this is done by averaging the temperatures for all the days of those 10 years and comparing it with the averaging of all the days in other decades on record.
If I average my height for all the days in the 10 years of my twenties, it is my tallest decade on record.
Am I still growing at age 30?
So – where’s your proof the earth is still warming?
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February 5, 2012 1:33pm
flipper

As for the likes of Chrssie the Wussie, Luc and a few others, their devotion to mendacity is an odd albeit widespread phenomenon. My non-peer reviewed hypothesis is that, like a tendency to diarrhoea (verbal and perhaps otherwise), it probably goes in families; runs in the genes.
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February 5, 2012 1:39pm

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