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January 14, 2012 8:00am by Kokila Patel

General Debate 14 January 2012

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Scott Chris

The Vagaries Of Weather Forcasting:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10778610

➡ “Forecasters look at three key factors in predicting the summer outlook: the direction in which warm water sloshes across the Pacific (the La Nina/El Nino effect), the influence of westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere (the Southern Annular Mode or SAM) and the daily highs and lows that pass over New Zealand.”
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January 14, 2012 8:04am
Keeping Stock

Might be time for Sonny Bill Williams to hang up his boxing gloves

http://keepingstock.blogspot.com/2012/01/pack-it-in-sonny-bill.html
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January 14, 2012 8:05am
Manolo

Yes, Scott. NIWA forecasters are way better at reading tarot cards and tea leaves than weather forecasting.
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January 14, 2012 8:11am
Pete George

That’s an embarrassment for boxing, you can excuse a few less than prime brain functions in those rings but Sky need their heads examined.

SBW had plenty of natural talent but it’s being squandered by fanciful ambitions being fed by manufactered opportunities.

If it’s true he’s going back to league next year that indiocates a major reason why he coukldn’t make it to ther top in rugby – lack of real commitment.
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January 14, 2012 8:15am
Viking2

Desperately seeking dragon baby
5:30 AM Saturday Jan 14, 2012

Bevan Chuang is seeking a sperm donor to help her make a ‘dragon baby’ this year. Photo / Brett Phibbs
http://screencast.com/t/y9I7Qsc1

Bevan Chuang, 30, is desperate to have a “dragon baby” – and she’s determined not to let the fact that she doesn’t yet have a partner hinder her plans.

The Hong Kong-born Auckland Council ethnic panel board member, who has the blessings of her mother, is seeking a donor to give her a child

Only wants your seed, doesn’t want to share the job and no doubt expects the taxpayer to stump up with the DPB or whatever else. How many others out there like this?
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January 14, 2012 8:19am
Scott Chris

Manolo – weather patterns are notoriously fickle because they are very sensitive to “initial condidtions” or the “butterfly effect”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

As opposed to simple “heat in / heat out” models, where you know the system as a whole is going to heat up but not exactly which bits.
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January 14, 2012 8:24am
holysheet

I posted this late last week in a similar discussion.

Finally, someone has mentioned the impending ice age. I am still waiting for somebody to mention magnetic reversals and global warming or should I say ocean warming in the same sentence. Why link these two events?

There is no denying that methane, CO2, hydrocarbons and sulfur levels are rising in the atmosphere. But human contributions are minor. Do we honestly believe that we can change the weather, when we don’t even know if it will rain tomorrow. If we’re causing the problem, why did similar changes occur at the end of the last Ice Age? Why did some of the changes occur about 23,000 years ago? Or 35,000 years ago? Or 58,000 years ago? Or 115,000 years ago? Or 780,000 years ago? Or 65 million years ago? What’s causing the recent increases in earthly seismic activity or volcanic activity?

By the same token, if we’re causing today’s rising ocean temperatures, why did ocean temperatures rise so dramatically at the end of the last Ice Age? Because humans had nothing to do with it. It shouldn’t be called global warming but ocean warming we didn’t cause it and we can’t change it.

There is a link between magnetic reversals and ice ages. Throughout the ages ice has played a major role in almost every extinction in history. Climatic cooling once a dominant agent at the Cambrian extension as it was at the Ordovician, the Permian, the Devonian, the Carboniferous, the mid-Miocene, and the end Miocene. The Precambrian extinction saw major glaciation, the dinosaurs died during a short period of glaciation, and so did the mammoths. And what did these glaciations have in common? Magnetic reversals.

Magnetic reversals correlate not only with glaciation but also volcanism. Ocean cores show that peaks in volcanism occurred during magnetic reversals. 80% of all volcanism occurs under oceans this volcanism must go mad during magnetic reversals, pumping vast amounts of red-hot basalt 2,150°F into the ocean.

Underwater volcanism is why sea levels rose so abruptly at the end-Eemian and why they’re about to do so again. Underwater volcanism is what heated the K-T seas and evaporated them. That’s where the moisture came from to cause glaciation. That’s why ice ages correlate with magnetic reversals. And that’s why the next Ice Age could begin any day.
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January 14, 2012 8:30am
Viking2

http://screencast.com/t/y9I7Qsc1
screencast.com/t/y9I7Qsc1www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10778625
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January 14, 2012 8:32am
hj

Owen McShane (1,216) Says:
January 13th, 2012 at 3:12 pm

There is no population growth problem. Auckland is a small city growing very slowly. There is plenty of room in NZ. The country is only 0.7% urbanised in terms of land area.
………
What use are statistics about % urbanisation without context.
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January 14, 2012 8:39am
Pauleastbay

http://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/local-news/6257051/Man-stabbed-with-broken-bottle

Another journalistic highlight, how bloody lazy are you if this is all the news you can garner over night.

There will have 20 bottlings in Auckland last night.

Hint to Fairfax – real news
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January 14, 2012 8:41am
Scott Chris

holysheet says:- “Finally, someone has mentioned the impending ice age.”

Well without man’s intervention, the causal correlation between the Milankovich cycles (earths mean distance from the sun) and global average temperature predicts that we are heading into another period of heavy glaciation in the next 1000 years or so.

The good news is that once we can control and regulate GHG emissions, we’ll be able to ward off this coming event. Then we can have climate control in the house, the car AND the environment

>>”There is a link between magnetic reversals and ice ages.”

Do you have a link to evidence for this claim?
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January 14, 2012 8:52am
Yvette

What would John Key like at the moment?
An ever-deepening industrial shambles that supports the privatisation of publicly-owned assets.

What would be even better? –
Well, if the bad buggers, a nasty greedy union, to whom the Labour Party is indebted to or ideologically hamstrung by, so that Labour, who based their entire Election campaign around condemning asset sales, now doesn’t make a single fucking comment.

Nice start for 2012, John, and it just seems to be falling in your lap.
Who could believe Labour could be so helpful by being so helpless?
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January 14, 2012 9:02am
Viking2

OK so what are we doing in this country?

Chinese and Taiwaneese Cherry pickers when we have so many unemployed and more importantly when 24% of our young people are ring fenced from working by a legal requirement that the employer pay them more than the job can sustain.

And don’t bother to tell me that these foreign nationals were being paid the minimum rate.

I’ll die laughing.

When is this gutless Govt. going to remove the social stigma and morale sapping rules that prevent our young from being useful members of society at a cost that costs society nothing and builds their self estem and learning which allows the young to grow to be useful citizens of our country.
Anyone who talks with these young will have an understanding of their problem. The world is becomomng full of disenfranchised young people, (many well educated), and if we don’t change that quickly we will see riots of the kind that have happened in places like London and we will continue to see an esculation in crime and suicides.

NZ is no exception.

When Parliament votes 104 to 7 to retain a law that disenfranchises young NZer’s choices in the work place that is morally and ethically banlrupt. Law by the force of the WHIPP.

It epitomises all that is wrong with Parliament in NZ. (and maybe other countries).
We are being asked to review our electoral Laws again this year when in fact our Electoral Processes are actually good. Its Parliament that has the problem and ulike all people/organisations with problems until it recognises its own problems it will never solve anyone elses.

Until Parliament grasps the nettle and allows MP’s to vote ACCORDING TO THE WISHES OF THE ELECTORATE rather than the Power of their disgraceful party politics we won’t make progress.
Sure Govt. needs certainty on Confidence and supply but all else should refect the wishes of the electorate and that includes non voters as well as voters.

If there is one thing to do in politics this year its to remind MP’s and their power brokers that WHIPPING is UNETHICAL and is MORALLY BANKRUPT.

P.S. If you have an argument with what I’m saying, that’s fine, get yourself a copy of “BUSINESS STRIPPED BARE” by Richard Branson.
Its an energising read and its far sighted about the world today and in the future. It encapsulates NZ inc and what we need to do. ( And even you Greenies and Lefties will be captured with his far sightedness and how Green and Labour fits into his visions.)

It not about politics but about the hoplessness of politics as a solution and how the world is rapidly changing to using the systems and relationships of business to better the world.
Go get a copy and read it. Couldn’t put it down.
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January 14, 2012 9:05am
Viking2

Yvette,
Never wake a sleeping Lion. It gets up angry.
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January 14, 2012 9:10am
Pauleastbay

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/9010245/Dwarf-blames-Mike-Tindall-for-inspiring-attack.html

Then again shit journalisim is world wide
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January 14, 2012 9:14am
side show bob

Why bother holysheet, AGW is now a religion and it’s practitioners are nothing short of modern day inquisitors. Leave before they track down your I P address and seen a demented fool around for extra indulgences, for been an unbeliever.
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January 14, 2012 9:17am
Falafulu Fisi

What’s initial conditions Scott Chris?
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January 14, 2012 9:20am
Other_Andy

Winning A Climate Bet

In December 2007 I wrote what I thought was quite a straightforward article for the New Statesman pointing out that it was curious that when so many voices were telling us that global warming was out of control, and that the global warming effect dwarfed natural fluctuations, the global annual average temperature hadn’t increased for many years. I wasn’t promoting any particular point of view just describing the data. The New Statesman jumped at it.

To my surprise interest in my article was worldwide, and eventually the BBC’s radio programme “More or Less” got in touch. The programme is about numbers and statistics and they set up a series of interviews. You can hear the programme here.

Almost at the last minute the programme-makers came up with the idea of a bet. It was for £100 that, using the HadCrut3 data set, there would be no new record set by 2011. It was made between climatologist James Annan and myself. His work involves analysing climatic data and validating climate models. He accepted enthusiastically as he has a perchant for taking on ‘sceptics.’ The presenter said that if the global temperature didn’t go up in the next few years, “there would be some explaining to do.”

http://www.thegwpf.org/the-observatory/4748-winning-a-climate-bet.html
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January 14, 2012 9:22am
Viking2

Even then Ben Carson nearly didn’t make it. As an angry teenager, goaded by classmates over a trivial dispute, he thrust a knife into the belly of a friend. But rather than slicing into flesh, the blade struck his rival’s belt buckle and broke. A centimetre or two and the 14- year-old’s future could have been bleak.

He was struggling at school, but the fateful break seemed to snap something in him.

“When I think back,” reflects Dr Carson, “that was something that helped me realise how much potential is out there in young people that is simply wasted if not developed.”

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10778600
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January 14, 2012 9:23am
Viking2

Other_Andy (1,140) Says:
January 14th, 2012 at 9:22 am

Interesting, for to my mind warming and carbon are not the issue. The issue is about pollution and resources. Resources because with the population booming as it has the use of the World’s resources is gathering pace at an unprecedebted rate. This then leads to pollution from waste.
So the effort is wrongly directed and should really be about smarter use of resources of the world.
Carbon and warming are just a part of that cycle and the more efficient use of resources reduces pollution.

You cannot create nor destroy matter. What you can do is change its form.
Elementary Scince I would have thought.
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January 14, 2012 9:30am
Other_Andy

@Viking2

“The issue is about pollution and resources. So the effort is wrongly directed and should really be about smarter use of resources of the world.”

Absolutely.
And the answer is technology.

I am a skeptic but this is an interesting article. Energy from ‘cold fusion’ claims have been proven false so many times, I wonder what comes of this claim…
Another scam?

http://www.theage.com.au/environment/energy-smart/mullumbimby-helping-to-save-world-20120112-1pxj2.html
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January 14, 2012 9:45am
MT_Tinman

Viking2 these foreign nationals were being paid the minimum rate.

Please keep your promise.
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January 14, 2012 9:52am
Scott Chris

Falafulu Fisi says:- “What’s initial conditions”

Well in the context of weather cycles, the ‘initial conditions’ are when you first happen to look at a dynamic system and take a snapshot of all the *known* variables.

As you’ll know, chaotic systems are very sensitive to even minor variations in these variables, and some of these variables are unknown due to lack of measured data. That is why weather forecasting is so difficult.

The same doesn’t apply to global warming though, in the sense that it is a simple heat in heat out system and therefore only marginally affected by other chaotic systems.
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January 14, 2012 9:54am
Fletch

From yesterday’s GD –

Fletch (2,301) Says:
January 13th, 2012 at 9:51 pm
My folks reckon they remember way back when, when the ports went on strike that the then Prime Minister (they weren’t sure if it was Holyoake) fired all the port workers and brought in the army to do the job for a while…

Elaycee (2,040) Says:
January 13th, 2012 at 10:44 pm
@Fletch: Your folks may have been talking about 1951 – the PM at the time (National’s Sid Holland) ordered the military to do the work on the wharves. It had the desired effect – the wharfies capitulated and threw in the towel after striking for 151 days.

http://www.nzhistory.net.nz/troops-used-on-ports-as-waterside-dispute-worsens

Maybe the Govt can look at bringing in the army for this strike as well?
The shrill shriek of the Left around the country would be deafening if they did. I don’t think today’s Govt would be ballsy enough. 🙂
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January 14, 2012 9:55am
thedavincimode

eastbay

Another journalistic highlight, how bloody lazy are you if this is all the news you can garner over night.

If its journalistic highlights that you’re after, then you’ll be kicking yourself for missing TV 1’s in-depth 3 to 4 minute story about the return of the missing pet turtle last night. A masterpiece of journalistic endeavour. Why would you be interested in the implications of exploding Iranian scientists or collapsing European economies when a pet turtle returns after an 11 month sabbatical and in perfect health aside from a couple of sore feet?

Then of course there is the lead story to kick off; warning that every sea bird in the universe is again at risk due to the break up of the Rena.

Riveting stuff. I don’t know if its coincidence, but it just seems that every time I relent and think fuck it, I’ll try watching TV 1’s 6.00pm reality show, they always dish up this kind of classic fare.
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January 14, 2012 10:00am
Viking2

Tinhat, Yeh right says the Tui.
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January 14, 2012 10:07am
Lindsay Addie

The worst marketing/PR campaign of the week award goes to Daimler AG the makers of Mercedes Benz vehicles for using Che Guevara as a marketing tool:

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/01/13/mercedes-benz-apologizes-for-use-che-guevara-photo-to-promote-its-vehicles/
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January 14, 2012 10:08am
Viking2

dvm, been down the Bay at the beach. Saw more dead seabirds from the storms than from any oil.
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January 14, 2012 10:09am
Viking2

Mercedes and BMW have taken the top slots in cars sales in the USA for last year. Must be doing something right.
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January 14, 2012 10:10am
fatnuts

Scott, on the ‘heat in, heat out’ argument – CERN experiments show the sun has far more influence on cloud seeding than climate models predict. Probably why we don’t see the temperature rises that were predicted.
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January 14, 2012 10:13am
Lindsay Addie

Viking2,

“Mercedes and BMW have taken the top slots in cars sales in the USA for last year. Must be doing something right”.

Not according to the statistics…..

That’s besides the point, Daimler have quickly backtracked and apologised.
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January 14, 2012 10:18am
Scott Chris

Other_Andy says:- “the global annual average temperature hadn’t increased for many years”

I disagree.

Mass of the atmosphere… = 5.3 X 10^15 tonnes.
Mass of the ocean…………… = 1.4 X 10^18 tonnes.

In other words, the Ocean has *264* times the mass of the Atmosphere.

You don’t suppose the ocean has more *heat capacity* do you?

And we are ignoring the heat capacity of land, though this is a minor factor.
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January 14, 2012 10:40am
grumpyoldhori

Fletch, we on the left who have worked for a living would love it if the army went in to show those idle scum what work is.
I hope they take a couple of GPMGs with them, nothing like water front scum as a target to get rid of dew in the barrel.
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January 14, 2012 10:42am
joana

Good posts Viking2
Garlic industry gone , tour bus industry gone , fruit picking industry gone , fish processing industry nearly gone…factories gone decades ago……….. NZ going , going , gone. I have been calling the North Island ”New Tibet” for a long time.
Better get your kids learning Mandarin.
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January 14, 2012 10:46am
Scott Chris

fatnuts says:- “CERN experiments show the sun has far more influence on cloud seeding than climate models predict”

To what degree? And what is its actual effect?
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January 14, 2012 10:47am
Falafulu Fisi

Scott Chris, I know what initial condition is? Just quizing to see if you understand it as there are some people who often quote it without understanding its mathematical definition which is very simple really. I asked Gareth Rowden from Hot Topic blog here in one of the global warming debates in the past about initial condition and he didn’t seem to understand despite him quoting initial conditions in the debate. Mathematically, it’s simplest form it can be stated as something like a univariate time-dependent function as F(t) and the initial value of F(t) at starting time ‘t0’ is simply F(t0) , where ‘t0′ is not necessarily zero. But , Dr. Margaret Mutu must know well what initial condition is because it is taught differential calculus math papers, which one of her supporters’ here at Kiwiblog claimed that Dr. Mutu has mastered Laplace Transform and Integral Equations. I reckon that the commentator was Dr. Mutu herself posting using a pseudonym, which we all do.
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January 14, 2012 10:55am
reid

Excellent article on Iran which explains possible reasons for the US/Israel actions. It is wrong on one point though:

Only American idiots who sit in front of Fox “news” could possible believe that the real issue is an Iranian nuclear weapon.

because there are quite a few people here who think the same thing and I don’t think they’re American.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2012/01/11/the-next-war-on-washingtons-agenda/
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January 14, 2012 11:05am
wat dabney

reid,

I don’t see how America could do anything wrong, not now that the left’s hero Obama is at the helm.

I mean, for that to be the case would be to admit that big government is inherently dangerous and that the country would be better off with a small government limited by the Constitution. In other words, with Ron Paul.
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January 14, 2012 11:11am
Nookin

The world will be a different place when this guy re-emerges.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/6257332/Child-molester-gets-560-year-sentence
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January 14, 2012 11:13am
holysheet

Scott asked for evidence of my claim that there is a link between magnetic reversals and ice ages. One needs to understand what causes a magnetic reversal.

As the Earth’s axis of rotation makes its 23,000 Year circle around the North Pole, magnetic intensity slowly increases. Then it decreases, every 11,500 years. Up and down it goes, turning in and out of sync with the solar systems magnetic field like a giant rheostat switch in the sky, the same way that a light bulb glows dimmer or brighter as you turn a dimmer switch. These magnetic field fluctuations generate massive surges of electricity in and above the earth. Electrotelluric forces go crazy, thousands of cubic kilometers of basalt pour into the seas, radioactivity falls from the sky, and carbon dioxide levels shoot through the roof. How long the process takes, depends on where we are in our orbit around the sun, which in turn determines how strongly its magnetic lines of force affect us and therefore how destructive it is. Then snap! it’s that torque thing again. Since the Earth can’t turn over, our magnetic field reverses.

These alignments alternate, one in the autumn or winter and then 11,500 years later another one in the spring or summer. Underwater volcanoes heat the seas, and thousands of cubic kilometers of moisture rise into the sky. If it’s warm at the time, huge rainstorms melt the ice and the world floods. If it is cold, the rain turns to snow. That’s why ice ages begin or end abruptly every 11,500 years.

Normally, magnetic intensity rises and falls gradually. Sometimes it rises or falls within the 11,500 year cycle itself but toward the end of each cycle, it dropped through the floor. During the past 2000 years, the Earth dipole field strength has fallen 50%. 5% of the decrease has occurred during the last hundred years. This may be a precursor to a new reversal attempt. (The speed of the reversal is calculated by comparing magnetic field direction in different parts of the same lava flow. By estimating how long it took the center to cool, as opposed to the fast cooling edges, a time frame can be established)
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January 14, 2012 11:20am
reid

A possible scenario on what war with Iran might look like:

http://original.antiwar.com/giraldi/2012/01/11/what-war-with-iran-might-look-like/
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January 14, 2012 11:25am
cha

#Reid. links from http://warnewsupdates.blogspot.com/ aggregated at Tidy read.
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January 14, 2012 11:33am
reid

Thanks cha, most appreciated.
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January 14, 2012 11:39am
grumpyoldhori

The left’s hero Obama, what a fucking joke, he is just another fucking yank who is well tanned.
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January 14, 2012 11:43am
joana

A sex offender who had been molesting CHCh boys was recently released 11 mths into a four year sentence. None of the victims families were told of his parole hearing . They are supposed to be notified..When the manager of the Parole Board was questioned he said the police hadn’t given the members a list of the victims. It is a police duty to do so. Surely when dealing with a sex offender , the members should have asked about the victims? How could they possibly conclude that it was ok for him to toddle off home after 11 short months when they seemed to know little about and care even less for his victims?
More sloppy work from the Parole Board..I think few would know just how casual and slack these people are..but then the police and the prison service are not much better . They don’t provide documents , they don’t allow time for inmates to read documents..etc I know of one case in Christchurch where a panel conducted an illegal hearing..If you are dealing with legal matters it behoves you to keep the law yourself.
The problem with the Parole Board is that there is no independent complaints procedure. Any situation where the people you are complaining to are the very people you are complaining about , is pure farce. This situation is a great stain on our legal system…oh well lets go to another overseas conference , Canada would be nice , how about London? What percentage of the judges 18 million travel fund was spent by parole board members?
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January 14, 2012 11:48am
cha

Rubberbandits -(nsfw) Horse Outside
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January 14, 2012 11:48am
RightNow

“In other words, the Ocean has *264* times the mass of the Atmosphere.

You don’t suppose the ocean has more *heat capacity* do you?”

This is fantastic. It was much vaunted that the oceans were warming a few years ago, based on XBT data. Then the Argos float data showed cooling, so the XBT data was re-examined and found to have introduced a warming bias – thus making the Argos data look like it was cooling. All revised now to show a minor warming is still happening in the oceans.

No chance that something could have introduce a warming bias in other temperature records is there? Like station siting and selection perhaps.
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January 14, 2012 11:54am
fatnuts

For Scott;

http://press.web.cern.ch/press/pressreleases/releases2011/PR15.11E.html

“We’ve found that cosmic rays significantly enhance the formation of aerosol particles in the mid troposphere and above. These aerosols can eventually grow into the seeds for clouds. However, we’ve found that the vapours previously thought to account for all aerosol formation in the lower atmosphere can only account for a small fraction of the observations – even with the enhancement of cosmic rays.”

In light of this, it would be dishonest for any scientest to make a caim that the “science is settled”.
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January 14, 2012 12:04pm
wat dabney

“A British student faces up to a decade in a U.S. prison for actions which are not even a crime in the UK…

Mr O’Dwyer is accused of listing places where films and TV programmes could be illegally downloaded, on a website he ran from his university bedroom in Sheffield…

Legal experts say this is not an offence under British law, and he did not download any of the entertainment himself.

Yet the ‘quiet and vulnerable’ son of a GP could spend ten years in a high-security American jail after he lost his fight against extradition yesterday.”

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2086310/No-free-TV-Student-set-file-sharing-website-extradited-judge-rules.html
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January 14, 2012 12:12pm
Other_Andy

Falafulu Fisi

I thought you might be interested in this:

NASA Calls Cold Fusion (LENR) a Game Changer

NASA’s Technology Gateway has posted a two-minute video that summarizes the emerging LENR field and the hope it brings for a world of clean, affordable energy. The overview features senior research scientist at NASA Langley, Joseph Zawodny describing a near future of home power devices.

http://www.examiner.com/breakthrough-energy-in-national/nasa-calls-cold-fusion-lenr-a-game-changer

This comes after the following article in the MSM I posted previously:

http://www.theage.com.au/environment/energy-smart/mullumbimby-helping-to-save-world-20120112-1pxj2.html

There is a long (a few months’ worth) discussion about this subject on a hoax-sceptics site

Exploring the technical, economic and social ramifications of Andrea Rossi’s e-cat Cold Fusion reactor.

http://nickelpower.org/page-2/

Sounds a bit iffy though scientists are also conceding that something yet inexplicable might be happening.
It could be that some people are taking the same route as the AGW scammers.
1. You take a phenomenon that is extremely complex and not well understood (The climate).
2. You latch onto a facet of that phenomenon that is true (Global warming is happening).
3. You then introduce a new theory to explain that facet of that phenomenon (Global Warming is anthropogenic and caused by CO2).

And then the trouble starts. Politicians and money-power comes into play. Huge amounts of money and reputations are at stake. People are demonised, smeared and ridiculed and data is ‘lost’, altered and ‘massaged’ to fit the theory.
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January 14, 2012 12:17pm
cha

Wat, a 21st century version of the Great White Fleet ?.
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January 14, 2012 12:19pm
Scott Chris

Rightnow, I don’t suppose your opinion on the Argos float data was formed by reading the kooky ‘What’s up with that” site by any chance?
_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Holysheet

I suggest you check the data from whatever source you’ve been using. Reversals occur at apparently random intervals ranging from less than 0.1 million years to as much as 50 million years. The most recent such event, called the Brunhes–Matuyama reversal, occurred about 780,000 years ago.

Yes, 780,000 years ago. There is not even a hint of a correlation between ice ages and magnetic pole reversals.

Okay, so it shifts and fluctuates, but even the recent decline in strength is unlikely to be the precursor to a reversal, simply because they happen so infrequently.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2003/29dec_magneticfield/
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January 14, 2012 12:26pm
Luc Hansen

Meanwhile, compulsive deniers excepted, the general reader may find this information relevant to the problem of climate change (note, not “debate,” as there is no scientific debate to speak of; and not “question,” as the only question is how hard will it hit when it really builds up a head of steam):

http://www.munichre.com/app_pages/www/@res/pdf/media_relations/press_releases/2012/2012_01_04_munich_re_natural-catastrophes-2011_en.pdf?2

This is incredibly informative. The first graphic shows the geographical distribution of extreme events. Here’s what’s notable:

1. That bastion of denial and inaction on climate change, the US, is being incredibly hard hit by these extreme events, especially the heavily populated eastern seaboard.

2. Track east, and mainland Europe with its dense population centers is also disproportionally affected, in terms of geographical area.

But these are relatively wealthy centers of civilization that will cope reasonable well, anyway.

3. SE Asia stands out in that a large number of events almost in the nature of a highway to hell.

4. The effects in Africa and South America are more widely distributed, but more devastating, especially for Africa, as the populations are mainly relatively poor or even deprived.

The fourth graphic as you scroll down is the number of extreme events per year since 1980, complete with trend line. The time period exceeds the classic 30 year time span deemed necessary to be considered to be looking at climate, not weather. The results and implications are simply undeniable.

97-98% of actively publishing climate scientists agree that warming is happening and human activity is by far the dominant cause. Almost every lie promoted by the likes of Right Now, above, can be found to have been addressed by multiple sources e.g.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/

Or for those with a deeper interest, the papers presented at the site below are chockfull of rigorous science, written to be accessible to the general public. Try it. It won’t bite!

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/ (The website of James Hansen, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies and award winning scientist).

We are off to take the three year old to Lollipops now, but don’t worry, I’ll be back later to save the world.
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January 14, 2012 12:37pm
Scott Chris

fatnuts says:- “In light of this, it would be dishonest for any scientest to make a caim that the “science is settled”.”

I disagree. On the whole, the science is settled. Science is simply working on the finer detail, such as by what exact mechanism do the fluctuations in solar radiation reflect in the the earth’s climate.

Thing is, the relationship has already been worked out statistically and factored in to the climate models:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sunspot_Numbers.png

What they are still arguing about is the description of the actual process.
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January 14, 2012 12:38pm
Monique Watson

I wish I could get into the science of climate change. YAWN. It’s wise to be prudent seeing as we live in a closed system but the left does love self propagating anti-business conspiracies.

That’s so cruel I’d love to go investigate this LENR you speak of Other Andy. However the housework beckons.

And in a blatant attempt to pimp my own blog and provoke some conservatives:
http://nowoccupy.blogspot.com/2012/01/barbie-schmarbie.html

Is RSS feed automatically enabled with Blogger?
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January 14, 2012 12:40pm
Other_Andy

Europe hit by mass downgrade

Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s dealt a setback on Friday (Saturday NZT) to Europe’s ability to fight off a worsening debt crisis by downgrading the government debt of France, Italy, Spain and Austria. But it kept Germany’s at the coveted AAA level.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/6257157/Mass-downgrade-of-eurozone-countries

And on it goes….
The walking dead.
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January 14, 2012 12:42pm
wat dabney

“it’s wise to be prudent seeing as we live in a closed system”

We (the Earth and its atmosphere) get energy from the Sun and radiate energy out to space.
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January 14, 2012 12:44pm
wat dabney

Luc,

Er, you do understand that natural climate variation is not the same thing as purported anthropogenic global warming?

Apparently you don’t.
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January 14, 2012 12:47pm
wat dabney

Scott,

“…the kooky ‘What’s up with that” site”

You can go and post on the wattsupwiththat site and, unlike realclimate or the NZ Green Party blog, you won’t be quietly censored. I wonder why you don’t do that.

Here you go:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/
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January 14, 2012 12:51pm
fatnuts

Scott, not really interested in following your wikipedia links – an information system that anyone can edit is of no scientific value.

When CERN say ‘Climate models will need to be substantially revised’, the science is far from settled.
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January 14, 2012 12:53pm
thedavincimode

Viking2

dvm, been down the Bay at the beach. Saw more dead seabirds from the storms than from any oil.

Perfect. Now all they have to do is substitute “global warming” for “Rena” and that’s tonight’s opener right there.
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January 14, 2012 12:53pm
Other_Andy

@WD

AGW, the science is settled.
Now all we need to do is make the data fit.
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January 14, 2012 12:53pm
wat dabney

Scott,

“On the whole, the science is settled. Science is simply working on the finer detail, such as by what exact mechanism do the fluctuations in solar radiation reflect in the the earth’s climate.”

Even the most rabid alarmists concede that the increased CO2 itself can have only a trivial impact. The whole scam is based on alleged positive feedback mechanisms.
These purported mechanisms are fundamental to the computer models used to generate the alarmist propaganda, but they don’t actually appear to exist in real life. Hence the fingerprints of AGW, such as enhanced polar warming, are notable by their absence.

Therefore to the extent that the science is settled, it is settled in favour of those who call the whole thing a scam and a fraud.
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January 14, 2012 1:02pm
thedavincimode

cha

An outstanding find. 🙂
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January 14, 2012 1:05pm
Fletch

Come now Scott Chris – the “science” is a long way from being settled, especially when the experts in their respective fields aren’t the ones the IPCC is using to determine said ‘science”.

For starters, some of the world’s most experienced experts have been left out in the cold. In 2005 an atmospheric science professor from Colorado State University named William Gray told a US Senate Committee:

Despite my 50 years of meteorology experience and my many years of involvement in seasonal hurricane and climate prediction, I have never been asked for input on any of the [IPCC] reports.

The reason he wasn’t invited to the party, he says, is because he doesn’t think global warming causes more (or stronger) hurricanes. “They know my views and do not wish to have to deal with them.”

Six months prior to Gray’s testimony, an expert on the other side of the Atlantic was raising his own concerns before a committee of the British House of Lords. Paul Reiter knows little about atmospheric science. What he does know is the field in which he has specialized for more than 40 years – diseases that are spread by mosquitoes. According to him, the people who’ve been writing about those diseases in the Climate Bible are not experts.

While a large portion of the health chapter in the 1995 edition dealt with malaria, Reiter points out that “not one of the lead authors had ever written a research paper on the subject!” Only those with limited knowledge of this field, he says, could have produced such “amateurish” work. For example, the Climate Bible said malaria-transmitting mosquitoes usually don’t survive in areas where winter temperatures drop below 16°C (60°F). Reiter says that’s nonsense. We now associate malaria with tropical locales, but poverty and an absence of health care are important factors. Hawaii, Aruba, and Barbados are all tropical, but malaria isn’t a problem there. On the other hand, in the 1800s thousands died of malaria in North America and Europe – even in Siberia. [footnote 3-2]

It’s the same story with sea levels. The former president of a Commission on Sea Level Change, Nils-Axel Mörner, also addressed the House of Lords committee. Mörner, who has 40 years experience in his field, called attention to the disparity between what genuine sea level specialists think and what those who write IPCC reports believe. Those in the second group, he says, lack hands-on expertise. Instead, they attempt to predict the future via mathematical formulas that have been fed into computers (computer modeling). Mörner told the House of Lords that, between 1999 and 2003, genuine sea level experts held five international meetings to discuss the available real-world evidence. They concluded that sea levels are unlikely to increase by more than 10 cm (4 inches) by the year 2100. Mörner says the claim that sea levels are rising quickly – or that entire island nations are in imminent danger of drowning – are simply not true.

Dr. Gray, the hurricane specialist, resides in America. Dr. Reiter, the malaria expert, works at the Pasteur Institute in Paris. Dr. Mörner is the former head of a geodynamics unit at the University of Stockholm, in Sweden. Each of them possesses highly specialized knowledge. Each of them is a seasoned professional with long experience in his field. They are, in other words, exactly the kind of people you’d expect to find at the heart of an organization comprised of world-class scientists examining one of the planet’s most important questions. But they are all IPCC outsiders. This suggests the IPCC defines top scientists and best experts differently than do most of us.

Laframboise, Donna (2011-10-09). The Delinquent Teenager Who Was Mistaken for the World’s Top Climate Expert (p. 9). Ivy Avenue Press. Kindle Edition.

So who is the IPCC employing as “experts”?

So if malaria experts aren’t writing the section on malaria in the Climate Bible and world-renowned sea level experts aren’t writing the section on sea levels, who is writing IPCC reports? One group consists of graduate students. Typically these are individuals in their twenties.

Their experience of the world is neither broad nor deep. If they were merely performing administrative tasks that would be one thing. But the IPCC has long relied on their expert judgment.

Richard Klein, now a Dutch geography professor, is a classic example. In 1992 Klein turned 23, completed a Masters degree, and worked as a Greenpeace campaigner. Two years later, at the tender age of 25, he found himself serving as an IPCC lead author.

(The IPCC has three classes of writers. Coordinating lead authors are in charge of an entire chapter and are therefore the most senior in rank. Each chapter usually has two. Lead authors are expected to write a significant amount of text. Their numbers vary from a handful to several dozen. Contributing authors provide supplemental knowledge. They typically don’t participate in the meetings attended by the other two kinds of authors, but are asked to write briefly about a narrow, specific topic. A chapter may have no contributing authors or as many as 20 of them.)

Klein’s online biography tells us that, since 1994, he has been a lead author for six IPCC reports. On three of those occasions, beginning in 1997, he served as a coordinating lead author. This means that Klein was promoted to the IPCC’s most senior author role at age 28 – six years prior to the 2003 completion of his PhD. Neither his youth nor his thin academic credentials prevented the IPCC from regarding him as one of the world’s top experts. [footnote 4-1] Nor is he an isolated case.

Laurens Bouwer is currently employed by an environmental studies institute at the VU University Amsterdam. In 1999-2000, he served as an IPCC lead author before earning his Masters in 2001. How can a young man without even a Masters degree become an IPCC lead author? Good question.

Nor is it the only one. Bouwer’s expertise is in climate change and water resources. Yet the chapter for which he first served as a lead author was titled Insurance and Other Financial Services. It turns out that, during part of 2000, Bouwer was a trainee at Munich Reinsurance Company. This means the IPCC chose as a lead author someone who a) was a trainee, b) lacked a Masters degree, and c) was still a full decade away from receiving his 2010 PhD.

Who else falls into this category? Step forward Lisa Alexander. As recently as 2008, this woman was a research assistant at Australia’s Monash University. After earning her PhD in 2009, she was hired by another Aussie university – which noted in its announcement that she had already “played a key role” in both the 2001 and 2007 editions of the Climate Bible. (She was a contributing author the first time, and a lead author the second.) The IPCC selected its 2001 authors during 1999. This means its leadership decided that Alexander was a world-class expert 10 years before she, too, had earned her doctorate.

Sari Kovats, currently a lecturer at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, is an even more egregious example. She didn’t earn her PhD until 2010. Yet back in 1994 – 16 years prior to that event and three years before her first academic paper was published – Kovats was one of only 21 people in the entire world selected to work on the first IPCC chapter that examined how climate change might affect human health. In total, Kovats has been an IPCC lead author twice and a contributing author once – all long before she’d completed her PhD. One of Kovats’ health chapter colleagues was an American named Jonathan Patz. He earned earned a Masters degree in Public Health in 1992 and had his first academic paper published in late 1995. Yet in 1994 the IPCC judged his credentials so impressive he was appointed one of its lead authors.

Given the involvement of both Kovats and Patz, Paul Reiter’s description of the IPCC’s 1995 health chapter as amateurish starts to make sense. Rather than recruiting real experts like Reiter the IPCC enlisted young, inexperienced, non-experts instead. It has been doing so since the mid-1990s. Yet in 2011 newspapers still report that the IPCC is a collection of “the world’s leading scientists.”

Laframboise, Donna (2011-10-09). The Delinquent Teenager Who Was Mistaken for the World’s Top Climate Expert (p. 12). Ivy Avenue Press. Kindle Edition.

‘Experts’ indeed…
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January 14, 2012 1:08pm
Elaycee

Just (briefly) turned off RIP to see if the demented water woman has surfaced again after her appalling bad work re the director fees at the Ports of Auckland. [Remember – she added consolidated numbers to those covering subsidiary Companies and decided that 1+1=3].

But no – nothing from Penny at all. 🙂

Maybe she’s busy replacing the batteries in her calculator. Or replacing a string on her abacus. Or attending one of Auckland Uni’s ‘Accounting for Non Accountants” courses. I’m sure they could help her understand financials contained within an Annual Report. They aren’t hard to read. Or understand. Even Penny could learn how to read one correctly.

Or maybe not…. 😛
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January 14, 2012 1:10pm
RightNow

Scott Chris, actually I read it at skepticalscience. “The bottom line is there is still uncertainty over the reconstruction of ocean heat.”
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January 14, 2012 1:51pm
RightNow

Luc,Scott, I don’t deny the world is warming. Where my opinion differs to yours is that
1) I don’t think the observations have supported the projections of catastrophe. In fact I believe a slightly warmer world will be better and we’ll be lucky to have it for long.
2) Even if the ‘consensus’ view was right I don’t believe any of the solutions I’ve seen any government consider will make any statistically discernible difference to future climate no matter how hard they tax us.

PS – If I really did think our emissions levels were a problem that was leading us to a catastrophe I wouldn’t be a blog warrior about it – I’d get out and save the fucking world. What about you?
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January 14, 2012 2:06pm
Scott Chris

fatnuts says:- “not really interested in following your wikipedia links”

Blimey, I’m not trying to sell you life insurance here…. no, hang on…. maybe I am.

Anyway, it was just a link to a graph showing the link between solar radiation and recorded temperature. Seeing as you are suspicious of wikipedia, (wrong to imo, as you simply need to exercise discretion and check the references) here’s a graph from another source:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics/Solar_vs_temp_1024.jpg

And before you quibble about this source, the data are drawn directly from NASA GISS:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Wat Dabney says:- “Even the most rabid alarmists concede that the increased CO2 itself can have…”

Yes, they’re being dragged kicking and screaming into the 20th century.

Perhaps they’d like to join the rest of us in the 21st.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Rightnow

Perhaps you are referring to the upper ocean heat content anomaly. Well certainly there is discrepancy between all the different measurement methods, but the trend is clear. Each coloured line represents a different analytical method:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/robust_ohc_lyman2.gif
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January 14, 2012 2:22pm
Elaycee

Nooooooooooooooooooooo. . . . .

Failed Hobbit ‘union advocate’ and wannabe actor Robyn Malcolm gets her kit off for (a soon to be announced) charity.

Could this charity be the Blind Institute? Or has she posed as centrefold for Turf Digest?

Who on the planet would want her to front a campaign – posing in the nick? OMG!

http://www.stuff.co.nz/entertainment/celebrities/6257807/Robyn-Malcolm-reveals-naked-photo-shoot
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January 14, 2012 2:37pm
RightNow

Luc:

Almost every lie promoted by the likes of Right Now, above, can be found to have been addressed by multiple sources e.g.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/

Interesting. As it happens my source was skeptical science: http://www.skepticalscience.com/cooling-oceans-intermediate.htm

“There have been early difficulties in measuring ocean heat. Expendable bathythermographs, or XBT’s, measured ocean temperatures before the Argo network was deployed. XBT’s have been found to introduce a warming bias so when the warmer XBT data was combined with the later Argo data, the most recent trend showed exagerated cooling (more on that here). In addition, some Argo floats have had pressure sensor issues which impose a further cooling bias.”

And
“The bottom line is there is still uncertainty over the reconstruction of ocean heat. Generally, the various reconstructions show the same long term trends but don’t always agree over short periods. The uncertainty means one cannot conclude with confidence that the ocean is cooling. Independent analysis seem to indicate that over last half dozen years, the ocean has shown less warming than the long term trend but nevertheless, a statistically significant warming trend.”
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January 14, 2012 2:43pm
Other_Andy

Global warming: red-faced climatologist issues grovelling apology

The Global Warming Policy Foundation’s scientific adviser Dr David Whitehouse had won a £100 bet made on the programme four years ago with climatologist Dr James Annan. Annan predicted temperatures would rise in that period; Whitehouse predicted they wouldn’t. Annan lost.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100129892/global-warming-red-faced-climatologist-issues-grovelling-apology/

And…

Double whammy from green taxes: Families will have to pay more for fuel and flights

One in three households will face fuel poverty if Government does not back a new era of nuclear power, says leading expert

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2081509/Double-whammy-green-taxes-Families-pay-fuel-flights.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
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January 14, 2012 2:57pm
Manolo

Very well said, sir: http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/allen-west-marines-incident-shut-your-mouth-war-hell_616699.html
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January 14, 2012 3:10pm
fatnuts

Scott, the graphs shows for the majority of the time that temperature change correlates reasonably well with solar activity, albeit with a lag of several decades. Something which there is plenty of research to support that this. If you Google for graphs with a longer time base you’ll find this has pretty much been the case for as long as can be measured, bar a few anomalies.

So your graph supports the argument that solar activity is the driving force in climate change, rather than refuting it.
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January 14, 2012 3:18pm
chiz

Other_andy: Rossi’s E-cat has been getting a lot of publicity over the least year. There’s a more neutral (.i.e sceptical) article on the wikipedia that points out some problems with the claims made about it.
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January 14, 2012 3:30pm
Scott Chris

fatnuts says:- “So your graph supports the argument that solar activity is the driving force in climate change, rather than refuting it.”

Not a driving force. A cyclical factor. Why do you think I produced the graph.

We hit solar minimum in 2008 and after an unusually deep lull, sunspot activity has begun to increase in frequency. And despite this, it’s as hot as ever. 13 of the last 15 years are the hottest on record IN SPITE OF A DEEP SOLAR MINIMUM!!

Do you see the point now?

Here’s data showing our emergence from the solar minimum:

http://sidstation.loudet.org/03-solar-activity/data/xray-flares.png
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January 14, 2012 3:45pm
Scott Chris

Other_Andy

Did you catch my 10.40 post?

http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2012/01/general_debate_14_january_2012.html#comment-922469
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January 14, 2012 3:48pm
Other_Andy

@SC

Yep….
I suggest you contact climatologist James Annan, a member of the Global Warming Research Program at Frontier Research Centre for Global Change and tell him he is wrong and shouldn’t pay up.
According to Wikipedea he is famous for taking bets against climate sceptics.
He concedes he lost that one.
But if you think he is wrong…
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January 14, 2012 4:04pm
Johnboy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBMn0MNnjfI

🙂
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January 14, 2012 4:07pm
Other_Andy

“…13 of the last 15 years are the hottest on record…”

You forgot to add the usual ‘anthropogenic warmist’ disclaimer.
Or does ‘on record’ sound scarier?
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January 14, 2012 4:24pm
Other_Andy

Anybody caught this news article from 2 days ago?

Snowed in! British skiers stranded in resorts across Europe after record snow dump

Thousands of British skiers are said to be stranded across Europe after heavy snowfall trapped them in their ski resorts.
Austria, southern German, France and Switzerland have seen freak snowfalls dumping up to 18ft of snow and blocking roads and railways.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-2085131/Snow-Alps-Freak-snowfall-traps-1-000-British-skiers-Austrian-Alps.html

As for the UK last year
UK snow: Britain in gridlock as big freeze brings Christmas travel misery

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/dec/18/uk-snow-travel-disruption-christmas

And now, just to remind you what the lying carbonazis and the lamestream media predicted a few years ago:

Warming effect in a world without snow
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2005/dec/06/science.research

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

Al Gore: Snow is a thing of the past
http://christopherfountain.wordpress.com/2010/12/29/al-gore-snow-is-a-thing-of-the-past/
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January 14, 2012 4:53pm
fatnuts

Scott rather than what you infer by “a deep solar minimum”, the sunspot count over the last fifty years is higher that any other 50 year period since 1600.

So it makes sense that the earth has warmed over the last 50 years, even if it is only a fraction of a degree.
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January 14, 2012 5:18pm
Viking2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ms8clgh_rz8&feature=related
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January 14, 2012 5:25pm
Johnboy

V2: 🙂
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January 14, 2012 5:29pm
Viking2

One posting stated: ”Well done Robyn, very brave … men all over NZ are fantasizing! :-)”

Robyn Malcolm reveals naked photo shoot

Director of SAFE (Save Animals from Exploitation) director Hans Kriek also said the shots weren’t for his organisation.

A spokesperson for PETA (People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals) could not be reached for comment.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/entertainment/celebrities/6257807/Robyn-Malcolm-reveals-naked-photo-shoot
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January 14, 2012 5:32pm
Viking2

And they are still at it.

A 59-year-old Roman Catholic priest has been sentenced to three years and one month in federal prison for siphoning some $650,000 (NZ$817,375) from his northwest Las Vegas parish to support his gambling habit.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/6257556/Gambling-priest-stole-from-parish
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January 14, 2012 5:33pm
Johnboy

Who the fuck is Ben??
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January 14, 2012 5:35pm
Johnboy

“PETA has a long history of promoting its causes – including calls for an end to the use of fur and making changes to the wool industry – with billboards featuring nude celebrities. ”

Hope she shaved.
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January 14, 2012 5:38pm
nasska

V2

Gambling away the collection money is fairly low key…..makes a change from boy bothering anyway.
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January 14, 2012 5:43pm
Elaycee

“Hope she shaved.”

And wore a burqa…. 😛
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January 14, 2012 5:43pm
Scott Chris

fatnuts says:- “the sunspot count over the last fifty years is higher that any other 50 year period since 1600.”

What has that got to do with the price of fish?. It isn’t a cumulative effect as can be seen by the historical contemporaneous correlation.

You’ll have to do better than that fatnuts.
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January 14, 2012 5:53pm
fatnuts

SC: “It isn’t a cumulative effect” ?

You were using the term ‘heat capacity’ above – the energy it takes to raise the temperature of something. Given the sun delivers energy over time, it’s cumulative by definition.

Nice word ‘contemporaneous’, but you are wrong in using it in this context.
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January 14, 2012 6:45pm
Scott Chris

fatnuts says:- “Given the sun delivers energy over time”

Yes. It takes 8 minutes to deliver it at the speed of light.

But I suspect you mean that the energy is stored somewhere. Care to to tell us where and a provide a link to the evidence?

Incidentally, contemporaneous means ‘occurring in the same period of time’, so why am I using it in the wrong context?

I’ll put it another way. Why would the global average temperature rise and fall in rough synch with changes in solar radiation if there wasn’t a contemporaneous warming effect?
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January 14, 2012 7:16pm
DJP6-25

Other_Andy 9:46 am. I think it’s 99.99 % likely to be unworkable. I desperately want it to be workable. Then civilised countries could finally say FU to the Arabs.

cheers

David Prosser
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January 14, 2012 7:22pm
Other_Andy

@DJP6-25

Being a sceptic, unfortunately I have to agree with you.
Would be nice though…..
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January 14, 2012 7:38pm
fatnuts

Scott, the transfer of energy incident on the earth at a perpendicular angle from the sun is about 100W/m2. Won’t link as I’m pretty sure that’s just form 5 physics.

For instance if you wanted to heat a liter of water up by 1 degree, you would need to absorb 100% of the suns energy, over 1m2 for 42 seconds (heat capacity of 4200J/KgC). So to heat the ocean up, you would need a very long time absorbing energy, especially since the power flow is in both directions.

Hence the temperature rise is a cumulative effect of absorbing energy, and lags the delivery of energy.
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January 14, 2012 7:51pm
nasska

A repeat but it seemed topical:

Autumn:

Global warming prediction:- Floods, devastation and death.

Actual weather:- Dry and miserable.

Winter:

Global warming predictions:- Floods, devastation and death.

Actual weather: Icy and miserable.

Spring:

Global warming predicition:- Floods, devastation and death.

Actual weather:- Dry and miserable.

Summer:

Global warming predictions:- Heatwave, blue sky and nice cool breeze.

Actual weather:- Floods, devastation and death.
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January 14, 2012 7:59pm
Scott Chris

fatnuts:- “the transfer of energy incident on the earth at a perpendicular angle from the sun is about 100W/m2.”

Oh come on, what is the transference of energy’s relevance to what we’re discussing? Why would there be a delay in energy transference? Either the energy is absorbed or it is dissipated. If it is absorbed it is stored and is measurable instantaneously.

The idea that variable solar radiance is responsible for the recent warming of the globe is simply not consistent with what the temperature record shows. See for yourself. I’ve even used the denialist “watts up with that” as a data source:

http://i48.tinypic.com/14e6wjn.gif

Now *that* is basic physics, but the difference between you and me is I know how to apply it AND I reference my assertions. You just seem to just parrot half digested pseudo science.

This may be of help, from the great Richard Feynman:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3pYRn5j7oI
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January 14, 2012 9:13pm
fatnuts

Scott, the principal of heat capacity is something you first bought it up. The delay is in the change of temperature, not in the rate energy is radiated. Your electric jug doesn’t boil the instant you turn it on does it? there’s a delay that’s proportional to the rate at which energy is delivered (power) and the amount of energy it takes to change the temperature (heat capacity) and the mass of the water. Same principal with the earth absorbing energy from the sun.

And that graph doesn’t label the data with anything meaningful. So no idea what it’s supposed to mean.
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January 14, 2012 10:20pm
joana

The story is that the EPF , the Malaysian retirement fund , is being looted. As in Singapore , payment into this scheme is compulsory. Malaysia is full of crooks so it is not all that surprising but if you know of anyone here still with money in the EPF, warn them. Retirement age in Malaysia is 55 so there could well be Malaysians here who still have money in this scheme.
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January 14, 2012 10:58pm

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