December 31, 2011 1:00pm by David Farrar

Fairfax’s 2011 predictions

The Fairfax gallery team have reported on how their 2012 predictions have gone. I like the fact they are game to make predictions, and sometimes quite specific ones. The summary is:

  1. National will form a government after the November 26 election – 10/10
  2. Botany will be a Clayton’s by-election – 8/10
  3. Judith Collins will become defence minister after the retirement of Wayne Mapp – 3/10
  4. Mercurial NZ First leader Winston Peters will stand in an inner-Auckland seat to maximise coverage of his bid to return to Parliament – 0/10
  5. The Maori Party will not improve its current tally of five seats –  6/10
  6. MMP will survive the referendum, meaning a second one will not be necessary – 10/10
  7. Labour president Andrew Little will not win New Plymouth, but will get into Parliament on the list – 10/10
  8. Labour will campaign on a new top tax rate on income above $120,000 a year – 8/10
  9. The Government’s popularity will drop mid-year as the rising cost of living, slow economic recovery and cuts in public spending usher in a mild winter of discontent – 3/10
  10. Labour leader Phil Goff will survive till the election, but not long after – 10/10
  11. Kris Faafoi’s majority in Mana will rebound in line with Labour’s traditional dominance in the seat – 6/10
  12. The Greens will beat their 6.72 per cent share of the vote from 2008 and bring in at least one fresh female face – 8/10
  13. National will campaign on partial listings of minority stakes in some state assets, including some of the bigger SOEs – 10/10
  14. Steven Joyce will take over the education portfolio – 0/10
  15. The Maori Party will hold its nose and see the new foreshore and seabed law into force despite Hone Harawira’s opposition – 10/10
  16. Georgina te Heuheu and Sandra Goudie will signal an end to their political careers – 10/10
  17. Rodney Hide will hold on to ACT’s Epsom lifeline – 1/10
  18. Revenue Minister and UnitedFuture leader Peter Dunne will finally realise his haircut is his biggest electoral liability and change it – or even admit it is a hairpiece – 5/10
  19. Another senior Labour MP will announce they are bailing out of politics at the next election – and unlike the retirement of George Hawkins and Pete Hodgson, this one will be a surprise – 0/10
  20. John Key will come back from “kicking the tyres” during his Hawaiian holiday and declare himself “relaxed” about his chances in election year – 10/10

Overall they got 128/200 – the same as last year. I’ll cover their 2012 predictions once they are published.