Making your vote count
I’ve done a little table which may help people who want a Key-led Government or a Goff-led Government to decide how to vote, or more specifically how to make sure your vote is not wasted.
There are two ways a vote can be “wasted”. By this I don’t mean it isn’t counted, but that it doesn’t help a party gain extra seats in Parliament.Ineffective might be a better name for it.
The first way is if a party does not make the threshold of 5% or one electorate seat. People may wish to still vote for these parties because of a strong belief in their policies, but other people might want to make sure their vote helps decide who will be Prime Minister – Key or Goff.
The other way a party vote can be ineffective is if you vote for a party that gains no list mps on top of their electorate seats. For example the Maori Party won five electorate seats last election, and their party vote was just 2.4% and they needed 4.6% of the vote to gain a list MP on top of their electorate MPs. So all those party votes didn’t help the Maori Party gain extra MPs.
| Party | Vote needed for a party vote to not be “wasted” | Likely vote in Parliament |
| National | 33% | To make John Key PM |
| Labour | 18% | To make Phil Goff PM |
| Greens | 5% | To make Phil Goff PM |
| ACT | 1.2% if Banks wins Epsom, otherwise 5% | To make John Key PM |
| United Future | 1.2% if Dunne wins Ohariu, otherwise 5% | To make John Key PM |
| Maori Party | 3.6% (assumes they hold all 4 seats) | Could vote either way |
| Mana Party | 1.2% if Harawira wins Te Tai Tokerau | To make Phil Goff PM |
| NZ First | 5% | To make Phil Goff PM or force new election |
| Conservative | 5% | Could vote either way |
So what does this mean. Here’s what it means if you want John Key to remain Prime Minister:
- Only a vote for National is guaranteed to help Key remain Prime Minister
- A vote for United Future or ACT will only help Key remain PM if they win an electorate seat and their party vote is at least 1.2%.
- A vote for any other party is unlikely to help Key remain Prime Minister
If you want Phil Goff to become Prime Minister:
- A vote for Labour is guaranteed to help Goff become Prime Minister
- A vote for the Greens is exceptionally likely to help Goff become Prime Minister
- A vote for the Mana Party helps Phil Goff become PM if Harawira retains Te Tai Tokerau and they get at least 1.2% party vote
- A vote for NZ First helps Phil Goff become PM, or will lead to a new election if they refuse confidence and supply to both parties
If you want your party to decide after the election between Key and Goff, there is not much to choose from
- A vote for the Maori Party will only help them gain MPs if they exceed 3.6%
- A vote for the Conservative Party will only help them gain MPs if they exceed 5.0%
Now this post is not telling people how to vote. It is informing people how to make sure your vote is most effective in determining the Prime Minister and Government, if that is what matters to you. It doesn’t for some people, but it does for others.