A close race in Ohariu

The Dom Post reports:

The Fairfax Media-Research International mini poll shows the UnitedFuture leader, who has held the north Wellington seat for the past 27 years, could be ousted by Labour’s Charles Chauvel.

It put Mr Dunne on 37.4 per cent, less than two points ahead of Labour’s Charles Chauvel on 35.6.

National’s Katrina Shanks is a distant third on 19 per cent and the Greens candidate Gareth Hughes registered just 1.4 per cent.

A massive 34.6 per cent of voters were undecided.

The poll, conducted on Wednesday night, surveyed 163 voters and has a margin of error of 7 per cent.

Research International spokesman Paul Epplett said that means the race for Ohariu is too close to call.

Definitely too close too call. The probability that Dunne is in fact ahead of Chauvel is only 61%. Add onto that the 35% undecided, and either Dunne or Chauvel can win.

What will be interesting to see is if the 19% voting Shanks, now vote tactically.