Lies from the Klingon

Winston told many lies at the weekend, but we will focus on just two of them. The first is that he is not a Klingon, and Whale has proof to the other.

Before we move onto the next lie, enjoy the fact that NZ First has selected Andrew Williams as their candidate for North Shore. They deserve each other.

What I want to focus on is this report from Stuff:

The polls were wrong by 100 per cent in 2002 and 500 per cent in 2005 and again in 2008, Peters said.

This has been widely reported. Once upon a time when a politician made a claim, someone would fact check it. So I’ve done it in this case. I’ve compared NZ First’s actual election results with the average of the polls for the five MMP elections. They are

• 1996 – 13.4% result v 15.0% poll average
• 1999 – 4.3% result v 4.0% poll average
• 2002 – 10.4% result v 9.1% poll average
• 2005 – 5.7% result v 6.0% poll average
• 2008 – 4.1% result v 3.4% poll average

What is really interesting is if you average out the five elections. NZ First on average got 7.6% and the average poll rating immediately prior to the elections was 7.5%.

Polls can be wrong and have been wrong. But not as wrong as Winston’s claims.