Jack Layton RIP

This week saw the death of the Jack Layton, the Leader of the Opposition in Canada. He died from cancer after taking leave on 28 July from his duties.

Layton was Leader of the left wing New Democratic Party since 2003. In 2000 they won just 13 seats out of 301 with 9% of the popular vote. Layton in 2004 lifted the vote to 16% and 19 seats. In 2006 the vote went up marginally to 17% but the seats to 29 as the Liberals got thrown out.

The 2008 election saw further gains with the popular vote at 18% and seats to 37. Then just over three months ago a landmark election saw the Liberals (the natural party of Government for most of the last 100 years) fall to third place and the NDP soar to 31% of the vote and 103 out of 308 seats.

If he had lived, Layton may have become Prime Minister one day. He has always been a popular politician, beyond the support for the NDP.

The political ramifications of his death will take some time to become apparent. Canadian parties take months to elect a new leader, sometimes over a year. So the Liberal Party has no permanent leader yet and now neither does the NDP. The interim leader is 68 years old and is unlikely to become the permanent leader.

This means that PM Steven Harper will have no strong opposition until at least 2012. It also means that the Liberals may have a chance to regain support from the NDP, if the new leader doesn’t fire.