iPredict on dairy returns

iPredict has announced:

iPredict’s first contracts forecasting Fonterra’s payout will be launched on the online predictions market at 3.30 pm today and will be available to its 5000 registered online traders plus everyone else who chooses to join up at www.ipredict.co.nz

The initial contracts will ask traders whether Fonterra’s final 2010/11 payout, per kilogram of milk solids, to a 100 percent share-backed farmer (before retentions), will be above $7.90, above $8.00, above $8.10, above $8.20 or above $8.30.  Traders can buy as many of each contract as they like.

On 24 May this year, Fonterra announced the 2010/11 payout was likely to be in the $8.00 to $8.10 range.

“This first set of contracts will give an indication of in which 10 cent increment the final payout is likely to fall,” the Chief Executive of iPredict, Matt Burgess said today.  “We will then add 2.5 cent increment contracts within the favoured 10 cent range to provide dairy farmers and the wider dairy community with an even more accurate forecast.  Forecasting this way will give both a real-time point estimate and a margin of error.”

The stocks went live on Wednesday. At present the stock for more than $8.125/kg is at 63c and more than $8.150/kg is 43c, so the market is pointing towards $8.13 to $8.15.