First casualties of climate change
Gavin Atkins writes:
Tim Blair recently posted this list of things that the media have trumpeted as being the “first casualties of climate change”.
I thought it would be an interesting exercise to check the veracity of each story – but what I was not expecting is that every story up until 2010 (after which some of the claims are too recent to verify one way or another) has either been completely debunked, or has since had some serious doubts placed on it.
So the following examples have not been cherry picked – it’s a quick analysis of every claim made about “the first casualty of global warming” up until 2010.
Here are the stories that Tim gathered together, followed by the latest information about them:
The claim:
The golden toad was the first casualty of global warming
The reality:
“There is no evidence of a trend associated with global warming. Rather, the extinction of the Monteverde golden toad (Bufo periglenes) appears to have coincided with an exceptionally dry interval caused by the 1986–1987 El Niño event.”
The claim:
Tuvalu: Global Warming’s first casualty. Ten thousand people, Tuvalu’s entire population, are packing their bags as their homes among nine low level atolls are being swallowed by the rising sea.
The reality:
The last census shows that Tuvalu’s population continues to grow.
The claim:
Polar bears are set to become the first casualty of global warming.
The reality:
The total number of the world’s polar bear population is still thought to be between 20,000 and 25,000.
The claim:
The first casualty of global warming is India’s mangrove island on the Bay of Bengal, Lochachara ~ it is now gone.
The reality:
The loss of the island was almost certainly caused as part of the natural erosion of an island in a delta.
The claim:
The Maldives are the likely first casualty in any serious increase in global warming.
The reality:
The Maldives population continues to increase.
The claim:
Water could be the first casualty of global warming.
The reality:
Not in Australia it ain’t. Also, the argument that smaller glaciers means less water is pure illogical claptrap as explained eloquently by Jennifer Marohasy.
The claim:
Australia Could Become First Major Casualty Due To Global Warming.
The reality:
People in Sydney and Melbourne have wasted millions on desalination plants because of false predictions about water shortages.
The claim:
Losing winter: as climate change takes hold, North America’s coldest season is the first casualty.
The reality:
North America has experienced some of its biggest snow seasons on record.
The claim:
First Casualty of Global Warming? Rare breed of possum may be extinct.
The reality:
Live possums were discovered four months later.
The claim:
The Alaskan village of Newtok is the first casualty of climate change.
The reality:
The town of Newtok is still exactly where it always has been.
The claim:
UNEP had also recently declared that coral reefs, which support the majority of marine life, will be the first casualty of climate change.
The reality:
The reefs are doing fine.
The claim:
Brunt of climate change perceived in India; small Himalayan glaciers first casualty.
The reality:
UN climate chief admits mistake on Himalayan glaciers warning
The claim:
In India … agriculture is the first casualty of climate change.
The reality:
India produces record wheat and pulses crop.
This sums up for me the reason so many people disbelieve climate change as a result of greenhouse gas emissions. The media, many politicians and even some crusading scientists have published so many scare stories that have not eventuated, people naturally turn to disbelief.
As I have said many times before, the basis science is very sound that the more greenhouse gas emission there are, the warmer it will be. There is less certainty over what the extent of any warming will be. Some say only a couple of degrees, while many say the indirect impacts through water vapour will magnify the direct effects.
But as I have said many times, the assorted hysteria about 10 metre sea level rises, blaming all unusual climate events on greenhouse gas emissions, and assorted doomsday predictions are what have turned so many people from concerned to sceptical.
Hat Tip: Whale Oil
