What can Labour do?

In my By the numbers blog at Stuff I look at the Fairfax poll result, and ask what Labour can do to change things in the next 17 weeks.

The answer from their Leader and Deputy Leader seems to be denial. First Annette:

”It’s another poll but it’s not what we are finding on the ground. What people say to us isn’t reflected in the poll.

No, but you obviously are only talking to your own supporters.

And she added: ”I notice that this poll was compared to 1996 when they said we got our worst ever result. Helen Clarkwent on to get to 28.1 per cent and we almost formed the government.”

I wondered who would be first to try this line. In 1996 the total centre-left vote was 54% as the Alliance and NZ First were on 15% or so each. In 2011 the total centre-left vote is around 37% and centre–right vote close to 60%.

And Phil Goff says:

Labour leader Phil Goff has dismissed a dire new poll result for his party, saying it doesn’t reflect support for Labour’s proposed capital gains tax.

That is true. Many people may support a CGT. But they don’t want Phil Goff as Prime Minister is the brutal truth, and if they have to choose, it is an easy choice.

An election based on today’s poll result would see Napier-based Labour MP Stuart Nash lose his list seat in parliament, but Mr Goff said that was not a concern.

“We’re not intending to get a result like that,” he said.

General Custer intended to win the battle also.

Mr Nash, who is also the party’s revenue spokesman, would “absolutely” retain his seat, and also had a chance of winning his Napier seat from National MP Chris Tremain, he said.

“I know he’s got a big majority to pull up but I wouldn’t rule him out to be able to win the electorate off National.”

Oh my God. I think he’s on drugs. Next he’ll claim they may win Helensville and Clutha-Southland.