Rob Salmond on polling

Rob Salmond at Pundit has a useful blog on polling, dispelling some of the conspiracy theories others have out out:

On Friday, Chris Trotter opined in the Dominion Post about recent poll results. He was not happy about the estimate in the latest Colmar Brunton poll of 27% support for Labour, and asked this question:

“Are opinion polls being used, quite deliberately, to demoralise the Government’s opponents?”

The answer to this question is, of course, “No.”

Polls are regularly scheduled, and adhere to strict, unchanging guidelines about how to collect their information. There are times when the political left does not like the results, and there are times the political right does not like them, too (see 2002). There is no evidence that New Zealand political polls have been tampered with for partisan gain.

Trotter’s rationale for asking the question is that the revelations about Rupert Murdoch’s influence in British politics might clue us in to similar shenanigans over here, in particular that the recent poll might be some manner of trick by shadowy right-leaning forces. He then quickly says that normally this kind of question would only occur to conspiracy theorist nuts, but says these times are different.

No, these times are not different. Chris Trotter is peddling a quite ridiculous line that relies on grand, lengthy conspiracies, and has absolutely no evidence to support it. His thinking amounts to: “one right-winger is a crook about something, so they all must be crooks about everything.”

His delusional thinking, published in an influential venue, may also cloud some people’s perceptions of the left’s intellect in general. As a person who, like Trotter, prefers policies of the left and hopes they will win, that makes me upset.

I’ve generally found those who attack the credibility of polls the most, almost inevitably are doing badly in them, or don’t like the results.