Is this a final nail?

While I regard the chance of Labour forming Government after the next election as remote, I’ve never dismissed it entirely. In fact I have warned of a possible scenario where National gets 46% and loses to Labour on say 32% if Labour can pull off a deal with principally the Greens and NZ First (if they make it).

However NewstalkZB’s Felix Marwick has just tweeted:

NZF leader Winston Peters won’t be drawn on possible post election deals but says he doesn’t envisage a Lab’, Green, NZF scenario happening

This is potentially a huge blow to Labour, as they desperately need Winston to both make 5% and to back them, to be in with a chance.

Winston has not ruled Labour out per se, but has ruled out Labour, Greens and NZ First. This suggests he may do a repeat of what he did in 2005 (if he is in a position to do so) and veto the Greens from being Ministers.

The Greens would then have to decide between accepting being screwed over again by Labour, forcing a new election, or allowing a National-led Government to govern. None of them pleasant options for them. So I think the Greens will be hoping Winston doesn’t make 5%.