No Trump for President

Reuters reports:

Billionaire real estate magnate and television personality Donald Trump says he won’t run for the White House in 2012.

The announcement thins the field of potential Republican candidates for the upcoming US presidential election.

The host of NBC-TV’s “Celebrity Apprentice” said his decision followed “considerable deliberation and reflection” after weeks of an unofficial campaign.

“I maintain the strong conviction that if I were to run, I would be able to win the primary and ultimately, the general election,” Trump said in a statement, adding that he is “not ready to leave the private sector.”

Trump’s poll ratings for the Republican nominations have plummeted to 8% after he was humiliated at the WHCD. It is bad enough to have made a fool of yourself by becoming the highest profile champion of the “birthers”, but to not be able to laugh at yourself as you get roasted makes it even worse.

The Republicans have quite a challenge finding a candidate who can be competitive against Obama. Newt Gingrich has declared and he is formidable. But scandal may trip him up. The base still has not warmed to Romney. For now I’m still saying look out for former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.

Intrade has Obama’s re-election chances at 61%, and that seems about right to me.  The Republicans are rated 65% likely to win control of the Senate (I would put it higher), so if Obama is re-elected he will probably have to deal with Republican control of both Houses.