Labour’s lowest poll since 1996

Tonight’s TV3/Reid Research poll showing Labour at 27% is the equal (with Feb 2009) lowest result they have had in that poll since 1996. The TV3 poll was the most accurate public poll in the 2008 and 2005 elections.

In October 1996 they did get a 26% poll result, but at that time the Alliance and NZ First were polling a massive 33% between them. This may be an all time low for the combined centre-left vote which was just 35%.

On this result, Labour would get just 34 MPs – nine fewer than it has at the moment. As they are going to take in Wigram, that means 10 fewer Labour List MPs. If they win Te Tai Tonga and West Coast-Tasman, then it is 12 fewer Labour MPs off the list.

Those who would lose their seats would include Steve Chadwick, Stuart Nash, Rick Barker, Carmel Sepuloni, and Kelvin Davis. They might also lose Carol Beaumont and Raymond Huo. Their only new list MP would be Andrew Little.