Labour’s List
Labour have released their 2011 party list. I’ve blogged it below, with two extra columns. The second column shows whether they are likely to win their electorate seat or not, and hence where they are on what one calls the effective list. For now the assumption is no electorate seats change hands (except Wigram goes to Labour).
The third column is what approximate level of party vote is needed for Labour for that list candidate to get elected to Parliament. This assumes that there is 5% wasted vote.
| Rank and Name | Effective Rank | Party Vote Needed |
| 1. Phil Goff | Mt Roskill | |
| 2. Annette King | Rongotai | |
| 3. David Cunliffe | New Lynn | |
| 4. David Parker | 1 | 18% |
| 5. Ruth Dyson | Port Hills | |
| 6. Parekura Horomia | Ikaroa-Rawhiti | |
| 7. Maryan Street | 2 | 19% |
| 8. Clayton Cosgrove | Waimakariri | |
| 9. Trevor Mallard | Hutt South | |
| 10. Sue Moroney | 3 | 20% |
| 11. Charles Chauvel | 4 | 21% |
| 12. Nanaia Mahuta | Hauraki-Waikato | |
| 13. Jacinda Ardern | 5 | 21% |
| 14. Grant Robertson | Wellington Central | |
| 15. Andrew Little | 6 | 22% |
| 16. Shane Jones | 7 | 23% |
| 17. Su’a William Sio | Mangere | |
| 18. Darien Fenton | 8 | 24% |
| 19. Moana Mackey | 9 | 25% |
| 20. Rajen Prasad | 10 | 25% |
| 21. Raymond Huo | 11 | 26% |
| 22. Carol Beaumont | 12 | 27% |
| 23. Kelvin Davis | 13 | 28% |
| 24. Carmel Sepuloni | 14 | 29% |
| 25. Rick Barker | 15 | 29% |
| 26. Deborah Mahuta-Coyle | 16 | 30% |
| 27. Stuart Nash | 17 | 31% |
| 28. Clare Curran | Dunedin South | |
| 29. Brendon Burns | Chch Central | |
| 30. Chris Hipkins | Rimutaka | |
| 31. David Shearer | Mt Albert | |
| 32. Michael Wood | 18 | 32% |
| 33. Phil Twyford | Te Atatu | |
| 34. Stephanie (Steve) Chadwick | 19 | 33% |
| 35. Kate Sutton | 20 | 33% |
| 36. Jerome Mika | 21 | 34% |
| 37. Iain Lees-Galloway | Palm North | |
| 38. Josie Pagani | 22 | 35% |
| 39. Lynette Stewart | 23 | 36% |
| 40. Jordan Carter | 24 | 37% |
| 41. Kris Faafoi | Mana | |
| 42. Christine Rose | 25 | 37% |
| 43. Glenda Alexander | 26 | 38% |
| 44. Susan Zhu | 27 | 39% |
| 45. Rino Tirikatene | 28 | 40% |
| 46. Sehai Orgad | 29 | 40% |
| 47. Megan Woods | Wigram | |
| 48. Mea’ole Keil | 30 | 41% |
| 49. David Clark | Dunedin North | |
| 50. Richard Hills | 31 | 42% |
| 51. Anahila Suisuiki | 32 | 43% |
| 52. Hamish McDouall | 33 | 44% |
| 53. Louis Te Kani | 34 | 44% |
| 54. Tat Loo | 35 | 45% |
| 55. Soraya Peke-Mason | 36 | 46% |
| 56. Julian Blanchard | 37 | 47% |
| 57. Peter Foster | 38 | 48% |
| 58. Pat Newman | 39 | 48% |
| 59. Julia Haydon-Carr | 40 | 49% |
| 60. Michael Bott | 41 | 50% |
| 61. Vivienne Goldsmith | 42 | 51% |
| 62. Nick Bakulich | 43 | 52% |
| 63. Chris Yoo | 44 | 52% |
| 64. Barry Monks | 45 | 53% |
| 65. Hugh Kininmonth | 46 | 54% |
| 66. Jo Kim | 47 | 55% |
| 67. Paula Gillon | 48 | 56% |
| 68. Carol Devoy-Heena | 49 | 56% |
| 69. Ben Clark | 50 | 57% |
| 70. Chao-Fu Wu | 51 | 58% |
Some general comments I would make:
- Sue Moroney has done very well to be the effective No 3 on the list
- Jacinda Ardern’s very high placing suggests Labour are not relying on the outcome of Auckland Central to ensure her return
- The bottom ranked list MP is junior whip Steve Chadwick.
- Only three new candidates are ranked above Caucus List MPs – Andrew Little at 15, Deborah Mahuta-Coyle at 26 and Michael Wood at 32 – two unionists and a parliamentary staffer.
- The latest poll (Roy Morgan) has Labour at 31.5%. If this was the result and the assumptions are correct, then Steve Chadwick would lose her seat, and the only new MPs would be Andrew Little and Deborah Mahuta-Coyle
- Ashraf Choudary is not on the list, so is dog tucker. Damien O’Connor also not on the list, but he is standing in a marginal seat, so may return.
- Overall Labour have not been as bold as they were in 2008 when they injected many new candidates in ahead of current MPs. Those ranked from spots 18 to 25 are all current MPs, and they could have put candidates like Kate Sutton, Jordan Carter and Josie Pagani higher into a more winnable spot – all three would do miles better than Rajen Prasad.
- It will be interesting to see what National does, and whether they place any new candidates above current caucus members. I hope they do – places should be on merit, not status quo.