Goff’s problem

The graph above show Phil Goff’s performance rating as Opposition Leader since the election. What many do not realise is he had quite positive ratings for the first six months in the job. His positives were 16% above his negatives in February 2009. Now Labour in that poll was also at 27%, but Goff was well regarded – he was capable of converting people back to Labour.

Then between April and August 2009, Goff went from a net 16% positive to a net 7% negative. Why? The prinary reason was his handling of the Neelam Choudary affair where he was seen to misrepresent her. Also during the same time period he championed a man as being unable to afford to live in his own home – and it turned out he owned two other properties.

So basically Goff started with positive ratings, mainly on a blank slate. People were willing to give him a fair go. But early in his tenure he made a couple of big blunders which marred him image. In fact he turned his brand into a negative one of not being open and honest. If people don’t like that analysis, then why else such a change over those months?

Now over the next 18 momths he stayed more or less constant at around net -10%. But this year it has blown out to a net -23% – probably partly because of his handling of the Hughes affair. His positives are only 27% and his negatives 49%. That is a near impossible position to become Prime Minister from.

If one looks for an international comparison to such a rating, the cloest I can find is Sarah Palin whose negatives are currently 28% behind her positives. Of course Palin has 18 months to turn things around, not six months.