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April 29, 2011 9:53am by David Farrar

General Debate 29 April 2011

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General Debate

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PaulL

Actually KK, for all Luc’s general insanity, he’s right about the general thrust of the claims. The papers tend to suggest that tornadoes and cyclones will be slightly less frequent, but slightly more severe. Net result essentially nil.

A very interesting talk on the matter is from Bjorn Lomberg, link (including transcript) here: http://www.abc.net.au/rn/counterpoint/stories/2011/3160416.htm

The essential premise is that over the next 40 years or so we’ll have a 10% increase in cyclone damage due to global warming, and a 500% increase in damage due to “social factors” (i.e. people moving to states that have lots of cyclones, and building houses in places where they’d get damaged in a cyclone). And that if we actually cared about saving lives and property, rather than the cult of global warming and the need for people to flagellate themselves, then we’d look at whether there’s a cheaper way to deal with the costs. And his suggestion is that we could stop subsidising insurance in Florida, thereby making it more expensive for people to build houses in cyclone prone areas. Which he suggests would have more impact than all that expenditure on reducing global warming.

He has some interesting lines about polar bears too, which are pretty funny.
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April 29, 2011 11:31pm
OECD rank 22 kiwi

Quite funny that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown weren’t invited to the Royal Wedding.
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April 29, 2011 11:41pm
Luc Hansen

There is well-researched post that covers the connection between global warming and extreme weather events here
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April 29, 2011 11:48pm
krazykiwi

You don’t ask straight questions Luc. You frame a question with pre-planned rebuffs and/or attacks on each of the (usually two) ‘options’ you provide. It’s both juvenile and tiresome. I thought you might have found a bit of dialog integrity over the last 6 months. Clearly you haven’t. Too Bad.

@PaulL – NASA predicted “..the USA will face more severe thunderstorms”. I read the more as numerically more (as per Al Gore’s photoshopping), rather than increased severity of thunderstorms.
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April 29, 2011 11:51pm
Johnboy

Brilliant wedding.

Didn’t the young couple look wonderful?
Didn’t the Dean and the Archbishop say it all in their sermons?
Didn’t all the little flowergirls and pageboys look really sweet?
Didn’t the Westminster Cathedral Choir sing like angels?
Didn’t Camilla look a bit less like a Rottie?
Didn’t the poor old Duke of Ed look slightly less confused than last time he was brought out for an airing?

Just waiting for the Battle of Britain Squadron to do their flypast and my night will be complete! 🙂

ps: Don’t all the sad wee leftie fucks get pissed when Johnny and Bronagh pose on the international stage (by invitation)
and look really good doing it when the rottweiler they loved so much called Helen got shunned by the whole world and could only find her natural habitat amongst the other losers at the UN! 🙂

I’m loving it! 🙂 🙂 🙂
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April 30, 2011 12:04am
Johnboy

So the flyspray didn’t work then Luc?

You are an obvious candidate for a good dose of Carbaryl.
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April 30, 2011 12:07am
PaulL

KK – I read the more as they were going to be more-severe thunderstorms, rather than more severe-thunderstorms. I’m also pretty sure that’s what the research shows. I still go back to the important point, which is that fewer thunderstorms, but those fewer thunderstorms are more severe, doesn’t amount to anything.
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April 30, 2011 12:08am
Johnboy

The Lanc. the Spit and the Hurricane have just done it for me. 🙂

The modern stuff——crap. 🙂

Six Merlins in sync. Paradise. 🙂
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April 30, 2011 12:33am
Luc Hansen

KK

I’m just trying to work out your basic objection to the consensus view.

Is the planet warming?

Yes or no.

If yes, is it caused through human caused emissions?

Do you have the courage of your convictions to answer, simply, for our edification and enlightenment?

PaulL

While I disagree with your basic premise, I think the net effect to you would not be nil if you were in the path of such extreme events.

More information is here:http://climateprogress.org/category/extreme-weather/
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April 30, 2011 12:47am
Johnboy

Jeeze if Carbaryl won’t even work it must be Zyklon B for you LUC.
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April 30, 2011 12:53am
reid

If yes, is it caused through human caused emissions?

No.
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April 30, 2011 1:06am
Nookin

V2 @9.33pm

Cowan’s passing was too slow and hampered the backline. Much of the Highlander passing tended to float and go high which meant that the receiver had to check. That gave time for the defence to get up.
Ben Smith is right up there and must be challenging at fullback, centre or wing. Certainly having a better season than Cory Jane.
Pollock got his vowells confused. Went on to the field as Pollack and came off as Pillock. The two penalties on Adam Thompson were absolute nonsense and that meant that the subsequent yellow card was nonsense. He doesn’t understand the advantage rule either.

Breakers rule!

Listening to the tone of the service, I had trouble telling if it was a wedding or funeral. Didn’t seem to be much joy about it all. Kate, though, is A OK in my book. Wouldn’t kick her out of my shower.
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April 30, 2011 1:12am
Manolo

Anybody but Canterbury mate….anybody.

Some day Bruv will tell us why he hates the sheepshaggers so much. 🙂
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April 30, 2011 5:35am
slightlyrighty

Johnboy.

My wife was channel surfing to comapre coverage of the wedding, and we caught a little bit of Fox News Coverage. That was a GEM!

The commentator was having a wee rant about some woman with a unique hat that in his opinion looked ridiculous and he was wondering what possessed her to wear it, or words to that effect, and he ended his rant by saying that he’d probably find out who it was later and that, knowing his luck, he may have offended someone important.

It was Julia Gillard. 🙂
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April 30, 2011 7:16am
Viking2

# Manolo (3,961) Says:
April 30th, 2011 at 5:35 am

Anybody but Canterbury mate….anybody.

Some day Bruv will tell us why he hates the sheepshaggers so much. 🙂

Manalo:
BB is conflicted. He must be school teacher in drag.
He cannot decide about stuff at all.
He wants Brash and all the individual liberty stuff that comes with that kind of philosophy BUT he can’t stand the results of that individual liberty when it comes to rugby and the sheep shaggers.

It will need a well qualified psychiatrist to figure BB out over this conflict of mind.
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April 30, 2011 7:41am
Pete George

Cowan’s passing was too slow and hampered the backline. Much of the Highlander passing tended to float and go high which meant that the receiver had to check. That gave time for the defence to get up.

The Blues got away with a heap of interference in and around rucks and mauls (which they are adept at), that makes it very hard to clear good ball quickly. And at the same time the Highlanders were hit hard by the whistle in comparison, making it difficult for them to assert their own control.

The Blues defence didn’t need time to get up, they were often already partly up. And while the Blues backs were very up in defence where were they on attack? They were very disappointing in their mostly negative approach, but I guess a win’s a win.
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April 30, 2011 7:46am
Viking2

Tax Freedom Day on Tuesday May 3RD.

123 days to pay off your tax burden

This year we again compare poorly with Australia, which has a Tax Freedom Day of April 19.

the US Tax Freedom Day is calculated by taxation and falls on April 12

the day in Norway is July 29 and the Norwegian Progress Party has been advocating for the past two years for Tax Freedom Day to become a national holiday to highlight the problem. That’s something that could be introduced here to replace one of our ”more questionable” national holidays,
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April 30, 2011 7:46am
Viking2

The Mad Dog of ACT.

MP Heather Roy is understood to be considering a challenge for the Act deputy leadership, despite the public upheavals of this week’s successful leadership coup by Don Brash.

One should never reward disloyalty to your leader.
Roy should be sent packing along with Calvert.

They will shaft Brash just as quickly when they can’t get their own petulant way.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10722390
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April 30, 2011 8:04am
Viking2

Should we be bothered that the Man who is pushing economic prescriptions for NZ can barely afford his own apartment?

He couldn’t afford to buy an apartment in the Viaduct. The view is not as good here, but he’s quite stoked because unlike at the Viaduct, his one-bedroom apartment here has a study as well. “Every time I had breakfast I had to move my computer, which was a bit of a bugger.

Another that lingers is his frugality. His coup means he will resign his directorships of Transpower and the ANZ/National Bank, which he says are now his main sources of income.

That will please many ANZ customers. Rod Deane next please and reintroduce customers first instead of Directors first.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10722388
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April 30, 2011 8:12am
Viking2

Episode Two.
The Mad Dog of ACT.

Heather Roy’s online ‘ACT’ exposed

By Liz Puranam

ACT MP Heather Roy has been accused of writing comments of support from false identities on her own blog.

Blogger Cameron ‘Whaleoil’ Slater says many encouraging comments on Ms Roy’s blog come from her own internet address, and when he pointed that out, the addresses were taken down.

http://www.3news.co.nz/Heather-Roys-online-ACT-exposed/tabid/419/articleID/208788/Default.aspx

Mad as a hatter as the saying goes.
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April 30, 2011 8:31am
starboard

oh dear…caught with her pants down..how embarrassing
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April 30, 2011 8:34am
Viking2

Guy
28 Apr 2011 5:41p.m.

The fact IP’s can of course be faked is mute, as Heather opted to blame the comments on her family she lives with… surely an innocent party would have immediately said she has no idea who wrote the comments but once they were discovered they were deleted. She didn’t. One notable point… the comments on her blog are moderated… that means, “authorised” or edited prior to publishing. Whichever way you look at it, its a cock-up of fabricated trust. She is now hinted to be picked for the second in command at Act. Unmitigated bad choice. Surely Banks at number two would be better. Oh but that alienates women voters… yawn, i just remembered why I can’t stand politics.

http://www.3news.co.nz/Heather-Roys-online-ACT-exposed/tabid/419/articleID/208788/Default.aspx
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April 30, 2011 8:35am
Viking2

Yep, the skirts been lifted and whats underneath doesn’t smell good at all.
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April 30, 2011 8:36am
Viking2

He (Brash),indicated he would ask Mr Key to give Mr Hide’s portfolios to another MP, citing as a precedent Mr Hide’s decision to strip Heather Roy of her portfolios because of her coup attempt.

That isn’t a valid comparison. Roy had done her best to replace Hide inflicting great damage on her party in the process.

Hide by contrast has put the party first by stepping aside without any public display of acrimony.

the election is only seven months away and it would be unnecessarily disruptive to change ministers at this late stage without a much better reason than to reward someone else for disloyalty to her leader who happens to hold the portfolios.
He should put his intellect and energy into helping his new party become part of the next government and leave this one be.

http://homepaddock.wordpress.com/2011/04/30/new-leader-has-no-mandate-for-demands/

And this is correct. If Brash gets into this slanging behavoir he will be entirely diverted from the job in hand which is to win in November in whatever form that is.
He has his work cut out establishing credible candidates with ACT backgrounds and ensuring a machine that can run the ACT election program.
I very much doubt that the existing structure is geared for that.
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April 30, 2011 8:44am
Pete George

They will shaft Brash just as quickly when they can’t get their own petulant way.

That’s funny. Brash would never shaft anyone to get his own way, would he. Oh, hang on…
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April 30, 2011 8:49am
Manolo

Whale Oil on DPF: “Cluster Farrar” can also be used as a new word for the political lexicon to describe execrable political analysis.

http://whaleoil.gotcha.co.nz/?p=22637
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April 30, 2011 8:52am
Pete George

Whale on pots and kettles: From Farrar’s now famously inaccurate post….

From the whale’s mouth last month:

I am also pretty sure that Banks and Brash know that electorally they are rat poison as candidates. They are both pensioners with Brash over 70. They also both know that their best years politically are behind them.

– also in Fran(k) spanks Cam

Good call Cluster Cam.
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April 30, 2011 8:55am
joana

Viking 2
The Act Party is beginning to look like a game of musical chairs. How many squabbles can five people have?
Thanks for the link to the Brash article re the red cushions.
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April 30, 2011 8:56am
Viking2

Oh Dear Red Cushions. As bad as Keys pink suits and ties.

What next Phil Goff in BLUE and Matt McCarten in Yellow along with Hone in Black and White.

Whats left for Winnie. Red maybe?
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April 30, 2011 9:15am
wat dabney

Those who like to claim that the devastating tornadoes in the States are due to global warming probably won’t want to be confronted with the actual facts, which are that there is a significant downtrend over the last 60 years in the number of strong to violent tornadoes:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/19/why-it-seems-that-severe-weather-is-getting-worse-when-the-data-shows-otherwise-a-historical-perspective/

Note also the decline in the number of tropical storms and hurricanes.
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April 30, 2011 12:39pm
wat dabney

More on the Greens’ claim of an impending energy crisis (demanding still more centralised state power):

“Natural gas: fuel of the future”

“…a couple of weeks ago the US Energy Information Agency released an assessment of 48 shale gas basins in 32 countries. The numbers are staggering…”

http://communities.canada.com/calgaryherald/blogs/tertzakian/archive/2011/04/18/natural-gas-fuel-of-the-future.aspx
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April 30, 2011 12:51pm

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