The numbers

Something political geeks do when there are talks of leadership changes, is immediately try and work out which MP might vote which way. I did this several times during my eight years in Parliament, when National had leadership changes.

Even when leadership is stable, people speculate on future numbers. If Key retired in 2016, then how would people vote in a (for example) Power v Collins contest gets speculated on. So number counting is a regular sport.

Now a political insider (not from Labour) has sent me their musings on how the numbers might fall in Labour. I stress again I do not know if there is a coup on or not. My view is that no one in Labour *wants* to roll Goff, but the question they are asking is whether it is *necessary* to do so.

So if it does come to a vote, how might the Labour MPs coalesce. I stress again these are not my projections, but those of a (non Labour) political insider.

Probably for Goff

1. Goff
2. King – duty bound to support at least inititally
3. Cosgrove – longstanding ties, on the right
4. O’Connor – longstanding ties, on the right
5. Shearer – his mate, owes him after Mt Albert
6. Barker – on the right
7. Ross Robertson – on the right
8. Faafoi – owes Goff for bringing him in
9. Hawkins – on the right

Probably for change

1. Dyson – seriously pissed with him after demotion
2. Parker – running economic policy to left of Goff
3. Street – Clark acolyte
4. Horomia – hard word put on him to move on; criticised him over Harawira decision
5. Chauvel – leftie
6. Robertson – Clark acolyte, own ambitions, has challenged him in caucus over policy/direction
7. Moroney – Clark acolyte
8. Dalziel – going nowhere under Goff
9. Twyford – Goff knobbled him in Mt Albert; on the left
10. Mackey – Clark acolyte, women’s faction.
11. Mahuta – criticised him over Harawira decision
12. Chadwick – Clark acolyte, women’s faction.
13. Fenton – leftie, women’s faction.
14. Burns – Clark acolyte
15. Beaumont – women’s faction; leftie
16. Curran – leftie
17. Prasad – brought in by Clark
18. Sepuloni – on the left
19. Ririnui – Goff demoted him following credit card scandal
20. Hodgson – member of Clark’s inner circle
21. Pillay – on the left; women’s faction.

Unclear

1. Cunliffe – depends on who challenges – maybe himself
2. Ardern – ties to Goff; but generally in left faction; ties with Robertson
3. Jones – depends on who challenges – maybe himself
4. Mallard – depends on who challenges, will fancy himself as kingmaker
5. William Sio – not enough known
6. Stuart Nash – image of vaguely right-wing, Goff has promoted, but unclear
7. Hipkins – promoted by Goff but generally leftie, may follow where Ardern goes?
8. Kelvin Davis – not enough known
9. Choudhary – going nowhere under Goff but not likely to either if there’s a change
10. Huo – criticised by Goff for Tibet comments; but unclear
11. Lees Galloway – unclear. May go with Chippie and Ardern?

Again, these are not my projections, and we do not know if there will be a spill. This is just a view of where MPs may go, if there is a spill.