The forgotten Botany by-election

Botany goes to the polls tomorrow and unless a comet hits Earth, Jami-Lee Ross should be elected the MP for Botany.

Even before the Canterbury earthquake, it was going to be a low profile campaign. The Labour candidate conceded defeat the day after he was nominated, the Green candidate failed to get nominated in time and the ACT candidate boasts she is more left-wing than Jami-Lee. There is no sense of a contest or race.

Throw in the earthquake. Not only does it knock all other news off the media radar, it also means that candidates (correctly) pull back their campaigns.

By-elections traditionally have a very low turn-out – around 50% or so. This by-election will probably have the lowest turn-out in history. I suspect it will be well below 50%.

What this means is that the actual majority will be quite modest, because the turnout will be very modest. So the important numbers to look at will be the percentage of the vote each candidate gets, rather than the raw majority.