March 31, 2011 2:00pm by David Farrar

iPredict on electorate contests

iPredict now has all 70 electorates listed so let’s look at what the market is saying about the probability of each seat being held:

  1. Clutha-Southland 97.7%
  2. Hutt South 97.5%
  3. Botany 95.3%
  4. Mangere 95.3%
  5. Tamaki 95.3%
  6. Mt Roskill 95.3%
  7. Taranaki-King Country 95.3%
  8. Helensville 95.1%
  9. Pakuranga 95.1%
  10. Coromandel 95.1%
  11. Rotorua 95.1%
  12. Dunedin South 95.1%
  13. East Coast Bays 95.0%
  14. Wigram 95.0% (to go to Labour)
  15. Hunua 95.0%
  16. Hamilton East 95.0%
  17. Manurewa 95.0%
  18. North Shore 95.0%
  19. Mt Albert 95.0%
  20. Tauranga 95.0%
  21. Taupo 95.0%
  22. Ilam 94.7%
  23. Nelson 92.6%
  24. Papakura 92.5%
  25. Waikato 92.5%
  26. East Coast 92.5%
  27. Northland 92.5%
  28. Christchurch East 92.5%
  29. Kaikoura 92.2%
  30. Rodney 92.2%
  31. Selwyn 90.0%
  32. Tukituki 90.0%
  33. Bay of Plenty 90.0%
  34. Whangarei 90.0%
  35. Manukau East 90.0%
  36. Rangitata 89.4%
  37. New Lynn 88.8%
  38. Wellington Central 88.8%
  39. Invercargill 88.1%
  40. Mana 88.1%
  41. Rongotai 87.4%
  42. Whanganui 87.4%
  43. Waitaki 87.4%
  44. Dunedin North 87.4%
  45. Napier 86.6%
  46. Rangitikei 86.6%
  47. Northcote 85.8%
  48. Port Hills 84.1%
  49. Rimutaka 83.2%
  50. Christchurch Central 83.2%
  51. Otaki 82.3%
  52. Waiariki 82.3%
  53. Hamilton West 81.3%
  54. Wairarapa 81.3%
  55. Te Atatu 80.2%
  56. Te Tai Tokerau 79.1%
  57. Tamaki Makaurau 78.0%
  58. Palmerston North 76.9%
  59. Te Tai Hauauru 76.9%
  60. Maungakiekie 75.7%
  61. Waimakariri 73.1%
  62. Auckland Central 71.0%
  63. Hauraki-Waikato 70.4%
  64. Epsom 66.1%
  65. Waitakere 58.3%
  66. Ohariu 58.0%
  67. New Plymouth 48.3%
  68. West Coast-Tasman 48.3%
  69. Te Tai Tonga 46.7%
  70. Ikaroa-Rawhiti 45.0%

So there are seven seats which are rated greater than 30% probability of changing hands – one held by ACT, one by United, three by National, one by Maori Party and one by Labour. Only four of the seven are deemed over 50% probability, with Ikaroa-Rawhiti deemd most likely to change hands.

There are a further eight seats deemed between 20% and 30% likely to swap hands. One is held by Hone Harawira, two by the Maori Party, three by Labour and two by National.