Goff on the polls

Phil Goff said on Q+A:

PAUL  Party support’s just above 30 at the moment, isn’t it?

MR GOFF       No, that’s wrong.

PAUL  If it were to drop, say, I don’t know, below 30 – say, 28 – and members of the caucus started to worry about losing their jobs in November, would you expect to go?

MR GOFF       No, let’s have a look at the situation. The party support is in the mid-30s. That’s higher than we had at the election, and it’s a lot higher than Bill English had in 2002, when it was about 20%.

Mr Goff seems to be wrong. The last three polls were:

• Roy Morgan 13 Mar – Labour 32.5%
• TVNZ 17 Feb – Labour 33%
• TV3 16 Feb – Labour 30.9%

If one simply averages them, then that is an average poll rating of 32.1%. Labour got 34.0% in the 2008 election, so Goff is clearly wrong with his claim – none of the individual polls is above this level.

He’s also wrong in his comparison with Bill English in 2002, as he is comparing an election result with a poll rating. The correct comparison is with what National was polling in Feb/March 2002. There were four polls in this period showing National at 35%, 30%, 31% and 33.4% which is an average of 32.4% – slightly higher than what Labour is currently averaging.

The consensus in the print media seems to be that Goff is safe for now, but that may change with the next polls. The next Roy Morgan poll will be 75% before the Hughes affair, so the focus will be on the next TV polls.