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March 4, 2011 8:52am by David Farrar

2011 Christchurch Earthquake Day XI

Death tll now at 163.

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earthquake

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Shunda barunda

Are the GNS geologists holding out on us?
As someone who has a keen interest in geology I can’t understand why we are not being warned about a possible imminent rupture of the Alpine fault (or it’s northern offshoots).
The seismic activity in the past 8 years since 2003 has been greater than the previous 35! (since 1968) and it has almost all been in the South Island.
We need to have someone looking at the data and then making a call on the probability of a major rupture in areas other than Canterbury.
Last night on Campbell live we had a geologist talking about an “unravelling of seismic strain”, he was not talking only about Christchurch.
Is this as good as we are going to get? a 30 second summary on Campbell live?
The GNS needs to issue some official statements on the increased probability for the Alpine Fault, the Hope fault, and other faults potentially affected by events since 2003.
We appear to be in the middle of a period of major seismic activity, it will be too late to talk about it after the fact.
My local newspaper ran a headline yesterday: “Town will crumble in quake” turns out most of the buildings are no where near up to code.
The time is NOW to motivate councils, hospitals, and the public to get ready, it could save lives and even some infrastructure.
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March 4, 2011 9:50am
Pete George

The seismic activity in the past 8 years since 2003 has been greater than the previous 35!

Where do you get that information from? Geonet statsdon’t seem to support that. 1993-2001 looks more active.

The time is NOW to motivate councils, hospitals, and the public to get ready, it could save lives and even some infrastructure.

I agree with that, I’n sure what’s happened in Christchurch will prompt a flurry of attention, the key thing will be if it carries on or not.
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March 4, 2011 9:58am
Shunda barunda

Pete
There have been more large earthquakes (over mag 6) between 2003 and 2011 than there were between 1968 and 2003.
That does not include the mag 8.1 or 7.4 that occurred near the Auckland islands after 2004.
Also, the 8.1 happened only three days before the massive boxing day 9.2 Indian ocean earthquake, they both happened on the same tectonic plate, the same plate that NZ is partly on.
The activity has not stopped since.
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March 4, 2011 10:06am
nasska

Shunda barunda @ 9.50am

What makes you think that the GNS geologists are holding back information? From what I can gather they are on a par professionally with their counterparts in Japan & California who to date have no way of predicting seismic activity either. Essentially the scientists know that there will be crippling earthquakes in the future based on previous activity but if they cry wolf all the time the NZ people will either become blase or let fear rob them of life’s enjoyments.

Re preparations for the “big one”, again local councils have to walk a fine line between forcing citizens to knock down half of the existing buildings immediately or take a gamble & make improvements over time. No building material or style is ideal – the current death traps created by placing one brick on top of another brick only came into vogue because of the extreme fire risk early wooden building presented.

We as a generation have made the mistake of being born quite a few decades too early to take advantage of perfect seismic science.
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March 4, 2011 10:17am
Shunda barunda

What makes you think that the GNS geologists are holding back information? From what I can gather they are on a par professionally with their counterparts in Japan & California who to date have no way of predicting seismic activity either.

I am not attacking their professionalism, I believe they are incredibly good at what they do, but at the end of the day they are data collectors. There needs to be some ‘theoretical geology’ happen here, someone saying “hey, we know this, this ,and this has happened so we think the Alpine fault may be about to go”
The guy on Campbell live alluded to the fact that it may be about to go, but quite frankly a few seconds with Campbell is not good enough, I want to know any and every concern they currently have and I want to know what they ‘think’ not just what they know.
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March 4, 2011 10:28am
Lindsay Addie

I do agree with the concerns mentioned by others here. I do know the scientists both here in NZ and from around the world are analyzing the data trying to make head and tail of it. As scientists (and also John Key) have already noted until they have a good understanding of seismic forces at work under Canterbury and the actual city there isn’t much point in trying rebuild the CBD. For starters the foundations of new buildings will have to be constructed to higher standards.

I do also want to see eventually a published list made available of the status of all buildings that AREN’T going to be demolished during the huge demolition work that is going to start as soon as is practiicable. There are also plenty of rumors about which of the more recent buildings in the CBD that are not going to survive.

Re the aftershocks, at moment they have been near where the big quake came from last week. Though what concerns me is there have been quite a few out under the Pacific Ocean close to the shore. I’m not a geologist but would like to know how big does a quake under the ocean have to be before it causes a significant tidal wave?
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March 4, 2011 1:03pm
MT_Tinman

Lindsay as someone who lives in an area where the Tsunami instructions are

IN CASE OF TSUNAMI
1/ Do NOT go outside.
2/ Sit on highest piece of furniture that will carry your weight.
3/ Place head between legs in “recovery” position.
4/ Kiss ass goodbye.

I don’t want to know.
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March 4, 2011 2:05pm
MT_Tinman

Yesterday I read that the ACC faces a bill of $350 million for the 22/2 earthquake.

I was assured this morning, once again, that the 22/2 earthquake was an act of god (or in this case God).

Obviously then the 22/2 earthquake was not an accident but a deliberate act of vandalism and murder by the infanticidal maniac bastard worshiped by bloody god-botherers.

The ACC should pay nothing, NZ should bill the bloody god-botherers!

Incidentally spell-check tried to change the word “infanticidal” to “insecticidal” while I was typing this post.

Bloody god again?
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March 4, 2011 2:14pm
Shunda barunda

I wouldn’t worry about it MT, you are probably about to be struck by lightning! 🙂
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March 4, 2011 4:29pm
Rufus

Traditionally, animist cultures which worshipped gods would say that a natural disaster like this was the result of angering the gods somehow, perhaps through neglect, or through disobedience. The god would have to be placated by some kind of sacrifice. So Mr Tinman, I suggest we sacrifice someone’s ~~daughter~~ cat, and that will make it all stop! 😉

ps. in case you’re asking, no, I do not have a cat.
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March 4, 2011 6:19pm
tristanb

To those who live in Christchurch.
Is Aranui much worse affected and especially neglected by services? Or are the complaints shown in the media more of a cohort effect?
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March 4, 2011 6:24pm
MT_Tinman

ps. in case you’re asking, no, I do not have a cat.

Bugger!
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March 4, 2011 8:15pm
MT_Tinman

tristanb (284) Says:
March 4th, 2011 at 6:24 pm
To those who live in Christchurch.
Is Aranui much worse affected and especially neglected by services? Or are the complaints shown in the media more of a cohort effect?

A large number of the population of Aranui, often with brown skins and black hair, occupants of State houses, regular collectors of WINZ benefits, irregular holders of paid employment, serious breeders, know their “rights” to the letter.

They’ve been seriously hard done by – particularly by the dead people who didn’t need rescuing at all.
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March 4, 2011 8:24pm
joana

Lyttleton is supposed to be the worst place in NZ to be in a Tsunami. Think 1960.
I feel that the Aranui people are really used to others helping them..other people in CHCh just got on and helped themselves , neighbours etc..Passivity is a lifestyle and it is rather ugly. They have children regardless of whether they can look after them.
They are also being manipulated by the socialists/anarchists etc..this happened after the Sept 4 th quake also.
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March 5, 2011 11:27am

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